So the Royals have signed Yasuhiko Yabuta, the Indians Masa Kobayashi, and there's a lot of talk about Hiroki Kuroda. Again MLB teams are turning to Japan in an effort to get pitching help in a thin free agent field. Here's a little of what to expect:
Japanese pitchers tend to be overvalued due to a different system. Starters in particular are prone to this. Japanese baseball runs 6 days a week, with a 6 man starting rotation. That means that Japanese pitchers tend to pitch once every 7 days instead of once every 5 or 6 days for American pitchers. This may not seem like a big deal, but over the course of an entire season it can mean a lot for a pitcher. Speaking of an entire season, they play less games in a season. Japanese Players play maximum 140 games in a season, with the two teams going directly to the world series rather than playoffs. This is probably the cause of Daisuke Matsuzaka's late season meltdown, and has been the case with many Japanese Pitchers.
Japanese baseball also uses a smaller ball, and pitch closer to the plate (albeit on a smaller mound.) And not to be stereotypical, but they pitch to less skilled batters in my opinion. I mean, Japan routinely imports players from the American Minor Leagues and they're stars. Leron Lee and Leroy Lee (Derrek Lee's father and uncle) were huge stars there, as are many perennial Minor Leaguers. This isn't because Americans are just better, but more because the MLB imports the best from everywhere else (Japan, Latin America, Canada, etc.)
What this does mean is that more and more Japanese teams and players are looking to work with American teams in order to fulfill their own monetary needs, as are the players. Ever since Hideo Nomo used the same loophole to get out of his obligations that Messersmith and McNally used to get out of their MLB contracts, the system has been getting closer and closer to embracing it. When Nomo originally did it, he was disowned by his family, and basically exiled from Japanese Baseball. Nowadays even when huge stars like Daisuke and Ichiro come over, the nation follows them with great interest, to see how their best perform among America's best.
I don't anticipate much from the new imports. I tend to like Japanese hitters more than pitchers for the aforementioned reasons, since they have proven they can beat a system that's a little slanted against them. Plus, none of these guys are hot prospects -- Kobayashi is 33, Yabuta is 34, and Kuroda is 32. While one may point to Takashi Saito as a foil to this theory, Saito, but Saito is better than these guys. Saito is a four time Japanese All-Star, with a fastball that's been clocked at 99 (the fastest of any MLB Japanese pitcher.) Look for these guys to be much like Hideki Okajima at best -- solid middle relievers, but not too much more.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Why Kashmir is better than Magic Man (Also Baseball talk)
Earlier this week the MVP for both leagues were announced. No surprise to anyone (except apparently the two ultra-homer Tiger writers who voted for Magglio Ordonez) that Alex Rodriguez was voted MVP in the AL. The bigger surprise was that Jimmy Rollins won the tightly contested race between himself and Matt Holliday for NL MVP. I'll lay out the case for both:
1) Going into the postseason, both players were figured to be a lock if they lead their respective teams (Phillies for Rollins and Rockies for Holliday) into the postseason. Nobody expected both teams to make such drastic comebacks as they did, and both ended up in the postseason, so this point is relatively moot. Mind you, these votes were cast just before the postseason started, so the Rockies going further into the postseason had no bearing on the voting. Kinda like voting for best dinner, but counting dessert in, when the voting is supposed to be based on the strength of the entrée.
2) Both players were centerpieces for their team. Jimmy Rollins made a quote back in January, being laughed at by most of baseball, saying that the Phillies were the team to beat in the NL East. Rollins held his end of the bargain, and became the first player ever to do 30/20/35/40 (home runs, triples, doubles, stolen bases respectively,) and to do it as a Shortstop is even more impressive. Not to mention he won the Gold Glove on defense. Matt Holliday on the other hand lead the league in Batting Average, hits, doubles, RBIs, Extra Base hits, Total bases, babies kissed, calls to Grandma, and probably a number of other categories, not to mention being in the top 3 in everything else.
The stats may be a bit intimidating to the untrained eye, but in my mind it boils down to this: Which is more valuable; a person who has better stats at an easier position (Matt Holliday as a left fielder) or a person with slightly worse stats at a harder position (Jimmy Rollins, playing Gold Glove defense on shortstop?) The key here for the argument is this: Rollins became the first person to accomplish that line of 30/20/35, impressive, but those stats have one thing in common: they are all extra base hits. Who lead the league in extra base hits? Matt Holliday.
3) This award is the Most Valuable Player. Last year's pick of Justin Morneau as the American League MVP shows that the voters place a good deal of emphasis on one's value to the success of their team. Justin Morneau was arguably not even the most valuable Minnesota Twin last year stat wise. He was teammate with the Cy Young winning Johan Santana and the batting champion Catcher Joe Mauer, both of whom probably had better years statistically. The difference here is that Justin Morneau's recovery from a bad start directly correlated with the team's success. If I could graph Morneau's success at the plate with the team's success in the win column, they would directly correlate.
So what does this mean to this year's NL MVP voting? One would think that, with two very worthy candidates, it would come down to one's value to their individual team. What makes the choice clear for me is that Matt Holliday played on a worse team. The Rockies finished last year tied with the Giants for last in the NL West. The Phillies in 2006 finished 85-77, 2nd in the NL East, having not placed last since 2000. The Rockies had to fight for a lot more, playing the majority of their games against NL west opponents rather than NL East opponents. Finally, the Rockies are a much, much worse team on paper. If Jimmy Rollins' bat fails, he still has 2006 MVP Ryan Howard, the best 2nd baseman in the mlb in Chase Utley, and All Star Centerfielder Aaron Rowand. If Matt Holliday has an off day, he has 5 time all star Todd Helton (never MVP, and older than Howard,) streak player of the century Kaz Matsui (infinitely worse than Chase Utley) and Rookie of the Year Troy Tulowitzki (a noble effort, but worse stat-wise in almost every category than Rowand.) Without Rollins, the Phillies had a much better chance to make the playoffs than a sans-Holliday Rockies.
I came up with an allusion the other day for the stat-impaired.. Comparing Jimmy Rollins with Matt Holliday is like comparing Heart to Led Zeppelin. Heart is an amazing band; Barracuda and Magic Man are both probably in my top 20 favorite songs of all time. They actually take a lot of their influence from Led Zeppelin though. I would argue that, despite the fact that Heart is a great band, they’re strictly worsethan Led Zeppelin. Zep has better vocals, guitar, bass, drums, and better songs as a whole. One might argue that Heart is more valuable to the rock world due to the fact that the lead singer and lead guitarist are females, and Led Zeppelin are all males, but I don’t think that has bearing on the product given out. Just as Heart should be evaluated on works, and not on circumstances, Rollins should be evaluated on stats, and not on positional relevance.
While I don't mean to diminish Rollins amazing season, I don't think he was better than Holliday. If Joe Mauer can't win the MVP for being the batting champion at a catcher position, then one would think that position bears little relevance in the MVP voting. Thus, I can't take the fact that Rollins is a middle infielder into much consideration when trying to establish solid voting guidelines. There is a flaw to be pointed out here with asking regional writers to vote for the award with no conceivable guidelines (How the hell did Carlos Marmol even get one third place vote?) Baseball Writers need to establish formal guidelines, or even better a formal debate Senate style, so that we the fans can understand what they're basing these awards on.
1) Going into the postseason, both players were figured to be a lock if they lead their respective teams (Phillies for Rollins and Rockies for Holliday) into the postseason. Nobody expected both teams to make such drastic comebacks as they did, and both ended up in the postseason, so this point is relatively moot. Mind you, these votes were cast just before the postseason started, so the Rockies going further into the postseason had no bearing on the voting. Kinda like voting for best dinner, but counting dessert in, when the voting is supposed to be based on the strength of the entrée.
2) Both players were centerpieces for their team. Jimmy Rollins made a quote back in January, being laughed at by most of baseball, saying that the Phillies were the team to beat in the NL East. Rollins held his end of the bargain, and became the first player ever to do 30/20/35/40 (home runs, triples, doubles, stolen bases respectively,) and to do it as a Shortstop is even more impressive. Not to mention he won the Gold Glove on defense. Matt Holliday on the other hand lead the league in Batting Average, hits, doubles, RBIs, Extra Base hits, Total bases, babies kissed, calls to Grandma, and probably a number of other categories, not to mention being in the top 3 in everything else.
The stats may be a bit intimidating to the untrained eye, but in my mind it boils down to this: Which is more valuable; a person who has better stats at an easier position (Matt Holliday as a left fielder) or a person with slightly worse stats at a harder position (Jimmy Rollins, playing Gold Glove defense on shortstop?) The key here for the argument is this: Rollins became the first person to accomplish that line of 30/20/35, impressive, but those stats have one thing in common: they are all extra base hits. Who lead the league in extra base hits? Matt Holliday.
3) This award is the Most Valuable Player. Last year's pick of Justin Morneau as the American League MVP shows that the voters place a good deal of emphasis on one's value to the success of their team. Justin Morneau was arguably not even the most valuable Minnesota Twin last year stat wise. He was teammate with the Cy Young winning Johan Santana and the batting champion Catcher Joe Mauer, both of whom probably had better years statistically. The difference here is that Justin Morneau's recovery from a bad start directly correlated with the team's success. If I could graph Morneau's success at the plate with the team's success in the win column, they would directly correlate.
So what does this mean to this year's NL MVP voting? One would think that, with two very worthy candidates, it would come down to one's value to their individual team. What makes the choice clear for me is that Matt Holliday played on a worse team. The Rockies finished last year tied with the Giants for last in the NL West. The Phillies in 2006 finished 85-77, 2nd in the NL East, having not placed last since 2000. The Rockies had to fight for a lot more, playing the majority of their games against NL west opponents rather than NL East opponents. Finally, the Rockies are a much, much worse team on paper. If Jimmy Rollins' bat fails, he still has 2006 MVP Ryan Howard, the best 2nd baseman in the mlb in Chase Utley, and All Star Centerfielder Aaron Rowand. If Matt Holliday has an off day, he has 5 time all star Todd Helton (never MVP, and older than Howard,) streak player of the century Kaz Matsui (infinitely worse than Chase Utley) and Rookie of the Year Troy Tulowitzki (a noble effort, but worse stat-wise in almost every category than Rowand.) Without Rollins, the Phillies had a much better chance to make the playoffs than a sans-Holliday Rockies.
I came up with an allusion the other day for the stat-impaired.. Comparing Jimmy Rollins with Matt Holliday is like comparing Heart to Led Zeppelin. Heart is an amazing band; Barracuda and Magic Man are both probably in my top 20 favorite songs of all time. They actually take a lot of their influence from Led Zeppelin though. I would argue that, despite the fact that Heart is a great band, they’re strictly worsethan Led Zeppelin. Zep has better vocals, guitar, bass, drums, and better songs as a whole. One might argue that Heart is more valuable to the rock world due to the fact that the lead singer and lead guitarist are females, and Led Zeppelin are all males, but I don’t think that has bearing on the product given out. Just as Heart should be evaluated on works, and not on circumstances, Rollins should be evaluated on stats, and not on positional relevance.
While I don't mean to diminish Rollins amazing season, I don't think he was better than Holliday. If Joe Mauer can't win the MVP for being the batting champion at a catcher position, then one would think that position bears little relevance in the MVP voting. Thus, I can't take the fact that Rollins is a middle infielder into much consideration when trying to establish solid voting guidelines. There is a flaw to be pointed out here with asking regional writers to vote for the award with no conceivable guidelines (How the hell did Carlos Marmol even get one third place vote?) Baseball Writers need to establish formal guidelines, or even better a formal debate Senate style, so that we the fans can understand what they're basing these awards on.
Friday, November 23, 2007
Rest in Peace Joe Kennedy
It was announced today by Fox Sports that former Oakland A, Toronto Blue Jay, Colorado Rockie, Arizona Diamondback, and Tampa Bay Devil Ray Joe Kennedy suddenly passed while visiting his wife's family in Tampa. Apparently Joe got up in the middle of the night and collapsed, dying presumably of a brain aneurysm or a heart attack.
Kennedy has been in the league for a few years, having been a trade chip for teams for a number of years. The A's acquired him a few years ago along with Jay Witasick for everyone's favorite Eric Byrnes. Kennedy pitched well as a middle reliever, but struggled when the A's tried to make them their 5th starter, desperate for a lefty arm. Kennedy played a key role for the A's because of this depravity of left handed arms, and despite stats that may suggest otherwise, was quite valuable to the team. Last year, after adding a true left handed specialist in Alan Embree, Kennedy was left to prove himself as long relief/starter, and unfortunately didn't do quite well. He was designated for assignment, claimed off waivers by Arizona, then the same was done until he got to Toronto.
Joe Kennedy was a guy who was taken in by a lot of teams looking for a lefty arm out of the pen, and never really quite fit in to any particular team's scheme. He pitched well enough in Colorado as a starter, but when the A's asked for the same, he just couldn't click. When he came out of the pen for the A's though, he pitched fine again (2.31 ERA in 2006.) As teams couldn't seem to get him to click in their particular scheme, they dumped him. It's a sad fact of the game, but it's one that Kennedy took with grace. Everywhere he went, he did as he was asked, and didn't fuss up about being switched from this role to that. There's something commendable about that.
In a sports world where Alex Rodriguez is commended as heroic for taking 286 million from the Yankees, Kennedy is a guy who just wanted to play ball. He put the team's needs over his own desires, and he took what job he was assigned in order to have money for his family. I don't mean to present Joe Kennedy as a Tiny Tim with the Ebenezer Scrooge MLB against him, but guys like Joe Kennedy easily slip through the cracks of a very star oriented sports lifestyle.
He is survived by his wife and 1 year old son, for whom he willingly bounced around multiple cities, states, and countries. Next time you're looking for autographs at a ball game, take a minute to look at the program at the random bullpen guys whose names you don't know. Without guys like Joe Kennedy pitching to the left handed power hitter, or filling in for the franchise face starter, baseball wouldn't be the glorious team sport it is.
Kennedy has been in the league for a few years, having been a trade chip for teams for a number of years. The A's acquired him a few years ago along with Jay Witasick for everyone's favorite Eric Byrnes. Kennedy pitched well as a middle reliever, but struggled when the A's tried to make them their 5th starter, desperate for a lefty arm. Kennedy played a key role for the A's because of this depravity of left handed arms, and despite stats that may suggest otherwise, was quite valuable to the team. Last year, after adding a true left handed specialist in Alan Embree, Kennedy was left to prove himself as long relief/starter, and unfortunately didn't do quite well. He was designated for assignment, claimed off waivers by Arizona, then the same was done until he got to Toronto.
Joe Kennedy was a guy who was taken in by a lot of teams looking for a lefty arm out of the pen, and never really quite fit in to any particular team's scheme. He pitched well enough in Colorado as a starter, but when the A's asked for the same, he just couldn't click. When he came out of the pen for the A's though, he pitched fine again (2.31 ERA in 2006.) As teams couldn't seem to get him to click in their particular scheme, they dumped him. It's a sad fact of the game, but it's one that Kennedy took with grace. Everywhere he went, he did as he was asked, and didn't fuss up about being switched from this role to that. There's something commendable about that.
In a sports world where Alex Rodriguez is commended as heroic for taking 286 million from the Yankees, Kennedy is a guy who just wanted to play ball. He put the team's needs over his own desires, and he took what job he was assigned in order to have money for his family. I don't mean to present Joe Kennedy as a Tiny Tim with the Ebenezer Scrooge MLB against him, but guys like Joe Kennedy easily slip through the cracks of a very star oriented sports lifestyle.
He is survived by his wife and 1 year old son, for whom he willingly bounced around multiple cities, states, and countries. Next time you're looking for autographs at a ball game, take a minute to look at the program at the random bullpen guys whose names you don't know. Without guys like Joe Kennedy pitching to the left handed power hitter, or filling in for the franchise face starter, baseball wouldn't be the glorious team sport it is.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
The Maddest Proposal
The Angels announced today that they have signed perennial Gold Glover and known saint Torii Hunter to their lineup, prompting inquisitive looks all around. While most of baseball won't argue that Hunter was one of the best free agents on the market, the move makes about as much sense as bringing Tofu for any vegetarians at your Raiders Tailgate party. The fact of the matter is that Hunter joins an already gluttoned outfield staff and will be expected to be the piece that completes the Angels World Series staff and bring back 2002.
Earlier this week, the Angels made the even more flabbergasting trade for Jon Garland, giving up an Orlando Cabrera coming off a career year (.301 BA, .345 OBP, .397 Slugging and only missing 7 games.) The Angels also have no suitable backup in the organization (short of the Cuisinart-versatile Chone Figgins, leaving the mediocre Maicer Izturis at third.) Many Angels fans thought this would lead to the announcement of the signing of a big bat (perhaps Miguel Cabrera, still the most fitting signing they could make,) but instead a rushed signing of Hunter is the deal that LA delivers. Angels General Manager Tony Reagins is committed this offseason to making any move that will bring the Angels closer to a championship, but the Hunter move leaves a lot of heads bleeding from the hand marks left.
So the story goes like this: Angels want another bat, so they look at free agents who had a great year last year. They see a guy who's just over 30 who might fill the role. They find one, zoom their sights in, and quickly sign him to a 5 year deal. Sound familiar? It is. They did the exact same thing last offseason with Gary Matthews Jr. After Matthews had a disappointing season last year, it made room for Reggie Willits to show his skills, and for the first couple months he made a Rookie of the Year case. Rather than letting the 4 man crew of Matthews, Willits, Garret Anderson, and Vladimir Guerrerro (remember him?) hold their own around the fence, the Angels signed Hunter for 5 years and 90 million, leaving Matthews and Willits riding in the middle seat of the proverbial Angels pickup truck. Meanwhile, (in addition to the aforementioned Shortstop FUBAR earlier in the week) the Angels could still use a catcher to move Napoli to a reserve role, where he should probably be anyway.
Why did the Angels make this move? How could the angels sign Hunter in a situation where he doesn't seem needed? First of all, Hunter does fit the angels batting scheme (able to play the base stealing/sac fly small ball game, and a #3 hitter to solidify Vlad) and he will bring a vocal leader to a clubhouse who has lacked a media-friendly star for a while. John Lackey and Vladimir Guerrero, while stars, lack any sort of media loving (Guerrero is very shy, and Lackey has about as many people skills as John Rocker's armpit.) The Angels may have had this money available due to the departure of Bartolo Colon (4 year, 51 million) and the owners being committed to a championship, but it also shows a distrust in its current players. Perhaps this is a precursor to making Vladimir Guerrero their full-time DH (where he spent most of last year,) but if not it moves Matthews to a 50 million dollar platoon role. If this is a precursor to a trade, the logical conclusion is that it has to be Matthews (and maybe someone else after his 2007 season) for a shortstop. Perhaps Carlos Guillen will want to keep playing Shortstop after being told by the Tigers he will move to First Base, and he would even fit the Angels scheme of "sign a 32 year old guy who hit around .300 last year so he must be good."
The bottom line is that the Angels are making a move that will hopefully add a bat to secure themselves as a dominant team, but this really isn't the bat they're looking for. Despite the fact that an otherwise shallow Free Agent market is rich in centerfielders (Hunter, Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, etc.) that doesn't justify adding another outfielder. A catcher or an infielder would have made much more sense, but this is another sign that the Angels are hoping that money will sign their problems. They don't seem to have learned from their last signing of an aging ~.265 BA hitter that one good year doesn't mean all that much. As much as I love Torii Hunter as a humanitarian and a guy, he just doesn't fit with the Angels.
Earlier this week, the Angels made the even more flabbergasting trade for Jon Garland, giving up an Orlando Cabrera coming off a career year (.301 BA, .345 OBP, .397 Slugging and only missing 7 games.) The Angels also have no suitable backup in the organization (short of the Cuisinart-versatile Chone Figgins, leaving the mediocre Maicer Izturis at third.) Many Angels fans thought this would lead to the announcement of the signing of a big bat (perhaps Miguel Cabrera, still the most fitting signing they could make,) but instead a rushed signing of Hunter is the deal that LA delivers. Angels General Manager Tony Reagins is committed this offseason to making any move that will bring the Angels closer to a championship, but the Hunter move leaves a lot of heads bleeding from the hand marks left.
So the story goes like this: Angels want another bat, so they look at free agents who had a great year last year. They see a guy who's just over 30 who might fill the role. They find one, zoom their sights in, and quickly sign him to a 5 year deal. Sound familiar? It is. They did the exact same thing last offseason with Gary Matthews Jr. After Matthews had a disappointing season last year, it made room for Reggie Willits to show his skills, and for the first couple months he made a Rookie of the Year case. Rather than letting the 4 man crew of Matthews, Willits, Garret Anderson, and Vladimir Guerrerro (remember him?) hold their own around the fence, the Angels signed Hunter for 5 years and 90 million, leaving Matthews and Willits riding in the middle seat of the proverbial Angels pickup truck. Meanwhile, (in addition to the aforementioned Shortstop FUBAR earlier in the week) the Angels could still use a catcher to move Napoli to a reserve role, where he should probably be anyway.
Why did the Angels make this move? How could the angels sign Hunter in a situation where he doesn't seem needed? First of all, Hunter does fit the angels batting scheme (able to play the base stealing/sac fly small ball game, and a #3 hitter to solidify Vlad) and he will bring a vocal leader to a clubhouse who has lacked a media-friendly star for a while. John Lackey and Vladimir Guerrero, while stars, lack any sort of media loving (Guerrero is very shy, and Lackey has about as many people skills as John Rocker's armpit.) The Angels may have had this money available due to the departure of Bartolo Colon (4 year, 51 million) and the owners being committed to a championship, but it also shows a distrust in its current players. Perhaps this is a precursor to making Vladimir Guerrero their full-time DH (where he spent most of last year,) but if not it moves Matthews to a 50 million dollar platoon role. If this is a precursor to a trade, the logical conclusion is that it has to be Matthews (and maybe someone else after his 2007 season) for a shortstop. Perhaps Carlos Guillen will want to keep playing Shortstop after being told by the Tigers he will move to First Base, and he would even fit the Angels scheme of "sign a 32 year old guy who hit around .300 last year so he must be good."
The bottom line is that the Angels are making a move that will hopefully add a bat to secure themselves as a dominant team, but this really isn't the bat they're looking for. Despite the fact that an otherwise shallow Free Agent market is rich in centerfielders (Hunter, Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, etc.) that doesn't justify adding another outfielder. A catcher or an infielder would have made much more sense, but this is another sign that the Angels are hoping that money will sign their problems. They don't seem to have learned from their last signing of an aging ~.265 BA hitter that one good year doesn't mean all that much. As much as I love Torii Hunter as a humanitarian and a guy, he just doesn't fit with the Angels.
Inaugural post!
Hello everyone out there, and welcome to my Blog! I'll be using this as a medium to practice my sports writing and to convey thoughts about the sports world. I'm aiming to update 2-3 times a week, and will try to respond to comments made on the Blog or by email as promptly and succinctly as possible. Please let me know how everything looks, and any suggestions you have!
Andy Patrick.
Andy Patrick.
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