The A's opened the season on a tear, as most people know, and have recently digressed back into mediocrity, or worse. The main reason for this is that the A's haven't been scoring runs, and there is unfortunately an obvious reason. The team was aided by some outstanding performances by guys who shouldn't've been counted on as main offensive producers. Let's look at a few of these:
Kurt Suzuki: He peaked right around April 18th, with a line of .339/.409/.390. He was seeing the ball well--not a lot of power, but a great On Base Percentage and all the makings of a solid contact hitter, which is what the A's were hoping for. They tried to move him up to the leadoff spot, but that experiment failed. Since April 18th (the day he was moved up) he's gotten progressively worse, and is now standing at .237/.300/282, a 2007 line that brings up bad memories of 2007 Jason Kendall. The A's envisioned Suzuki as a bottom of the order hitter, more known for his defensive capabilities, and it looks like his psyche may be a bit fragile for top of the order duties while trying to juggle an ever-shifting starting rotation.
Daric Barton: Barton hasn't lost much playing time with the Thomas trade, although many fans are screaming that maybe he should. Since May 5th his OPS has dropped 60 points and his batting average has dropped 30. He's slugging a mere .338, and though he wasn't projected to be a power hitter, it's hard to justify a guy who gives poor defense and so little pop playing 1st base, a position typically reserved for power hitters without much moblity (Paul Konerko/Carlos Pena types.)
Frank Thomas: The main issue here is that with the acquisition of the Big Hurt, the A's committed to him as their DH, leaving Mike Sweeney on the bench. Sweeney was off to a hot start, and he's still OPSing .813, whereas Thomas is still scuffling with a .690 OPS and a very low .339 slugging. Unfortunately with Thomas, you often get slow starts, but the A's are committed to waiting for him to get his swing back. The drop leaves the DH slot much colder, and that hurts since the DH is so key to the young A's team.
Donnie Murphy: He did his best Marco Scutaro impression while filling in around the infield and gaining the fans love with his swell batting, but he's pretty quickly regressed. This was probably due to the injury which landed him on the Disabled List recently, as he's now OPSing a mere .558 as opposed to the .828 he had at the end of April. Gregorio Petit is doing his best to take away that utility slot from Murphy, but the A's are really waiting for Ellis to come back from the DL and start producing.
All of these guys, combined with the continued inuries/demotions of Mark Ellis, Travis Buck and Santiago Casilla have hurt the A's recently. On the plus side, Rich Harden seems healthy, and could draw a lot of attention if he stays healthy. We're getting a better idea of what the team may look like down the road, and may get a better sink/swim feeling as we approach the mid mark. Should these guys continue to drop to average level, and the producers not pick it up, I wouldn't be surprised to see Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, and Huston Street get more trade rumors as the year progresses.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Cliff Lee?!
In doing research for this post, I found this little ditty:
June 27, 2002: Traded by the Montreal Expos with Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, and Lee Stevens to the Cleveland Indians for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew.
Boy, the Indians sure are reaping the benefits of that now (or would be if they hadn't traded Phillips). The A's are hoping for the kind of returns from the Haren deal, but that's a side point. Cliff Lee right now is the hottest pitcher in baseball, with a Hunt for Red October low .067 ERA so far and a 6-0 record in 7 starts. He's the real reason the Indians are doing well--apparently they have a Cy Young winner too, but his stats aren't as good.
What has lead to this sudden rise? Lee was good in 2005, with an 18 win season and a 3.79 ERA. People looked at Lee at that season as a bit of a fluke, and saw him more as a solid innings eater. Let's look at a few things:
1) He's being more aggressive. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down. In 2005 his K/9 was 6.36, and now his K/9 is 7.47, which is quite good. He's also only walked 4 guys in his 50+ IP this year, which is absolutely ridiculous. This, a 2% drop in 3-0 counts, and a 3% jump from his average in Strikeout% (according to baseballreference.com) show he's being more aggressive and going after guys. Such a low walk rate is ridiculous, and uses the Indians defense to his advantage.
2) His bullpen is better. Listen to this little blurb from Baseball Prospectus:
In the middle four months of 2006, nearly half of Lee`s quality starts were blown by the bullpen after the sixth inning (five of 12, in 23 starts overall).
Borowski is fortunately injured, so the Indians instead have the more qualified Rafael Betancourt, and being set up by Rafael Perez and Masa Kobayashi. This bullpen won't blow his leads.
3) He's older, and more seasoned. He's 29, and should probably be peaking at this point quite frankly. The years of bouncing back and forth between success and failure probably have seasoned him a bit, and he may not be as prone to emotional swings. His pitches/Plate Appearance are up 4.02 from his average 3.81, and he still gets out and doesn't walk guys. This to me shows poise.
Only a fool would think Cliff Lee can keep his sub 1.00 ERA, but it's not unreasonable to think he's capable of a very good season--even Cy Young caliber. He's doing all the right things, it's really just a matter now of seeing whether or not batters can catch up to him.
June 27, 2002: Traded by the Montreal Expos with Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, and Lee Stevens to the Cleveland Indians for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew.
Boy, the Indians sure are reaping the benefits of that now (or would be if they hadn't traded Phillips). The A's are hoping for the kind of returns from the Haren deal, but that's a side point. Cliff Lee right now is the hottest pitcher in baseball, with a Hunt for Red October low .067 ERA so far and a 6-0 record in 7 starts. He's the real reason the Indians are doing well--apparently they have a Cy Young winner too, but his stats aren't as good.
What has lead to this sudden rise? Lee was good in 2005, with an 18 win season and a 3.79 ERA. People looked at Lee at that season as a bit of a fluke, and saw him more as a solid innings eater. Let's look at a few things:
1) He's being more aggressive. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down. In 2005 his K/9 was 6.36, and now his K/9 is 7.47, which is quite good. He's also only walked 4 guys in his 50+ IP this year, which is absolutely ridiculous. This, a 2% drop in 3-0 counts, and a 3% jump from his average in Strikeout% (according to baseballreference.com) show he's being more aggressive and going after guys. Such a low walk rate is ridiculous, and uses the Indians defense to his advantage.
2) His bullpen is better. Listen to this little blurb from Baseball Prospectus:
In the middle four months of 2006, nearly half of Lee`s quality starts were blown by the bullpen after the sixth inning (five of 12, in 23 starts overall).
Borowski is fortunately injured, so the Indians instead have the more qualified Rafael Betancourt, and being set up by Rafael Perez and Masa Kobayashi. This bullpen won't blow his leads.
3) He's older, and more seasoned. He's 29, and should probably be peaking at this point quite frankly. The years of bouncing back and forth between success and failure probably have seasoned him a bit, and he may not be as prone to emotional swings. His pitches/Plate Appearance are up 4.02 from his average 3.81, and he still gets out and doesn't walk guys. This to me shows poise.
Only a fool would think Cliff Lee can keep his sub 1.00 ERA, but it's not unreasonable to think he's capable of a very good season--even Cy Young caliber. He's doing all the right things, it's really just a matter now of seeing whether or not batters can catch up to him.
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Travis Buck and his swing
The A's made the interesting announcement today that, in addition to activating Travis Buck from the Disabled List, they have optioned him to AAA Sacramento. The A's want to be sure not only that Buck is completely healthy, but also that he's ready to contribute. The Denorvis debate of last post will rage on for slightly longer, and Buck will be forced to prove himself again. This is an interesting move, but nonetheless a smart one. Buck had options remaining, which I imagine some of the other outfielders may not, so rather than force a choice that doesn't need to be made, the A's can rest easy knowing that Buck can work out those "3 or 4 things wrong with his swing" that plagued him early in the season.
The Outfield will thus remain Cust/Brown/Sweeney, with Denorfia and Davis filling in as needed. Make no mistake--Buck is the starting Right Fielder. He has too much talent and nothing to learn in AAA not to start, but the A's need to be sure he can contribute right now. Especially with the A's recent lack of offense against one of the worst pitching staffs in the league (Sorry, Scott,) Buck could be pulled up very soon. Think of these next few days as glorified rehab starts for Buck, who will be called up as soon as the A's are sure he's once again ready to be the Buck we need him to be.
In the meantime, Kurt Suzuki will stay the leadoff hitter. He remains there because of his above average On Base Percentage and not-terrible-legs. Buck will assume the leadoff spot when he returns, due to his better legs and proven ability (though Suzuki is doing well offensively, his minor-league numbers never suggested he'd be this good, so the jury is still out.) Buck could be back within a couple days, or a few weeks depending on how long it takes to get his swing back, but the message is clear--make it quick Buck, we miss your presence in the field and the plate.
The Outfield will thus remain Cust/Brown/Sweeney, with Denorfia and Davis filling in as needed. Make no mistake--Buck is the starting Right Fielder. He has too much talent and nothing to learn in AAA not to start, but the A's need to be sure he can contribute right now. Especially with the A's recent lack of offense against one of the worst pitching staffs in the league (Sorry, Scott,) Buck could be pulled up very soon. Think of these next few days as glorified rehab starts for Buck, who will be called up as soon as the A's are sure he's once again ready to be the Buck we need him to be.
In the meantime, Kurt Suzuki will stay the leadoff hitter. He remains there because of his above average On Base Percentage and not-terrible-legs. Buck will assume the leadoff spot when he returns, due to his better legs and proven ability (though Suzuki is doing well offensively, his minor-league numbers never suggested he'd be this good, so the jury is still out.) Buck could be back within a couple days, or a few weeks depending on how long it takes to get his swing back, but the message is clear--make it quick Buck, we miss your presence in the field and the plate.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Harden is back
Curse you Bob Geren.
I have been contemplating this entry a while--it wasn't quite ready on Monday, so I pushed it back to Wednesday. Then once I get home from school to finally type it up, Geren had just made his decision to move Chad Gaudin to the bullpen as Harden returns to the rotation from the Disabled List. Regardless, let's examine each pitcher, what they bring to the team, and what Geren was thinking:
First, "Kentucky" Joe Blanton. Blanton is our "Ace" in the sense that he's #1 in the rotation, the most dependable, and probably the guy we'd most like to face up against the opposing team's best pitcher. In 8 Games started this year, Blanton has accumulated a 2-5 record, which is worse than his 3.88 ERA 22:10 K:BB ratio would show, especially considering the livelihood of the A's bats so far. We assumed Blanton would give us constantly 6-7 innings of 3 run ball, and he has done just that. He's given up a total of 27 runs in 8 games, which is about 3.3 runs per game. His most common (mode) Earned runs though is 2, though he has gone as high as 5 in one start. Blanton was probably given little consideration in Harden's arrival, since he is the most polished of the pitchers, the least likely to be injured, and probably the least fair to deprive of a spot amongst the current starting five.
Next we have Greg "1-3 PO" Smith, the phenom call up who originally replaced Harden. Smith currently leads the entire team in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) with 10.6, even over the thus-far perfect Santiago Casilla. Over the course of 39 IP through 6 starts he has a 2-1 record and a 2.54 ERA. He posts a 31:13 K:BB ratio, and amazingly leads the MLB in successful pickoffs with 4 (Side Note: Dallas Braden is up there as well with 2, the A's don't run much, but maybe other teams think twice about it too.) Smith only looks to be getting better, but this is his first big-league stint, although he has looked very polished and one wonders what he would have left to learn in AAA.
After Smith, we have Chad "Southern Man" Gaudin, the now bullpen pitcher. Gaudin was known this year for having a near All-Star caliber first half last year before being slowed and then halted by injuries in the second half. Gaudin missed the Japan Series while recovering from an injury but since coming back he's started 6 games, accumulated a 3-2 record and a 3.75 ERA. He has a 26:10 K:BB ratio, and limited batters to a 1.22~ WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched.) He has averaged 6 innings per start, but been a bit inconsistent, twice giving up 5 ER in a start but once throwing 7 shutout innings and twice throwing one-run-ball. Gaudin was assured of a rotation spot so far, but is injury prone, and his workload could be a concern.
Next we have former All-Star Justin "The Duke" Duchscherer. Duke lobbied hard last year for a starting rotation spot and was given one this year with Haren's departure. Duke has already had one stint on the DL this year, but in his on-time he has a 3-1 GS with decisions in all 4 of his starts, accumulating a 2.45 ERA in the process. He's accumulated a 18:5 K:BB ratio by relying on his 12:6 curveball that reminds some of us of Barry Zito. He's only pitched 22 innings though, only gong 5 in his first three starts but going 7 in his most recent start. He's never given up more than 2 ER in any of those starts, and has proven to be quite good when healthy. If the Duke has no pain, and if it looks like he's not liable to be injured and start pitching into the 6th/7th more often, then Duke has a strong case on his hand.
Finally we have Dana "All Hallow's" Eveland (Sorry, I'm running out of nicknames here.) Eveland won the 5th rotation spot from Lenny DiNardo in Spring, and since then has accumulated a 3-2 ERA in 7 Starts, with a 3.05 ERA. His ERA is mostly tainted by a 6 ER performance on the 30th, from which he rebounded on the 5th with 7 innings of shutout ball. He has a 30:18 KK:B ratio, and averages close to 6 innings per start. He hasn't done anything to be removed from his spot so far, although that may be not enough in this group.
First of all, I don't advocate removing Blanton, because he's too dependable and tenured. I also don't advocate Duke leaving, since we need to see what he can do when he's healthy as a starter, much like Gaudin last year. I don't advocate getting rid of Smith either, because I can't imagine a scenario in which Smith should be removed and Eveland shouldn't. That leaves us with 4 options:
1) Replace Eveland with Harden. The benefit of this is that Eveland would make for an excellent Long Reliever, and spot starter for when any of our trio gets injured or needs to skip a start. He's had bullpen experience, and since he's young, he might be more ready for this type of role. Out of the young duo of Smith/Eveland, Eveland has been subject to Smith's domination, and Smith should be rewarded.
2) Replace Gaudin with Eveland. Gaudin is injury prone, and only moved to being a starter last year. He excelled in the bullpen two years ago, and has shown dominant stuff even when limited to a bullpen array. Gaudin would be less likely to injure his arm if he isn't forced to go to his slider so often to get guys out multiple times.
3) Move Harden to the bullpen. This is radical idea #1, the other of which I will explain soon. If all of the guys in the rotation are pitching well, then perhaps there is no need for the moment. Perhaps Harden should take the long relief role, and wait his turn for someone to get injured or come back down to earth. Doing this would give Harden a little more time to be sure he's fully recovered, and would give us dominance out of the bullpen should someone falter.
4) Establish a mini-rotation. I honestly don't know if this has been done before, but perhaps Harden/Duke/Gaudin could perform a mini-rotation, cycling the three of them between two spots and the long relief role. All three of them are injury prone, and having each of them skip their third start might prove an effective strategy for giving them all starts but keeping them healthy down the road for September play. If someone gets injured, then nobody has to "return" to starting form either, and simply move back into a 5-man rotation.
Geren chose option #2, and Gaudin is displeased. Chad feels that it will take him a step back by being forced into the bullpen, and I'm inclined to agree. If it were me, I would have gone with option #1 (as much as I'm tickled by #4.) Eveland has shown a higher walk rate than the other starters, which has coincided with a rise in his Ground ball %. I think Eveland is ready to be a big-league starter, but so far Beane has been resisting trade offers, and I think Eveland is probably the most suited to return to long-relief without being stunted.
Harden will instead take Gaudin's spot, probably moving Dallas Braden back to AAA. With Keith Foulke coming back soon, I surmise that one of the team's five outfielders will be sent down--probably Chris Denorfia since Rajai Davis is a strictly better Pinch Runner/Defensive Replacement than Chris Denorfia, assuming our Starting Outfield is Cust/R. Sweeney/Brown. Davis will be used pretty often in that role, since M. Sweeney and Thomas will often need to be pinch run for in the late innings, and Cust/Brown as corner outfielders might need a strong Centerfielder to compensate.
I have been contemplating this entry a while--it wasn't quite ready on Monday, so I pushed it back to Wednesday. Then once I get home from school to finally type it up, Geren had just made his decision to move Chad Gaudin to the bullpen as Harden returns to the rotation from the Disabled List. Regardless, let's examine each pitcher, what they bring to the team, and what Geren was thinking:
First, "Kentucky" Joe Blanton. Blanton is our "Ace" in the sense that he's #1 in the rotation, the most dependable, and probably the guy we'd most like to face up against the opposing team's best pitcher. In 8 Games started this year, Blanton has accumulated a 2-5 record, which is worse than his 3.88 ERA 22:10 K:BB ratio would show, especially considering the livelihood of the A's bats so far. We assumed Blanton would give us constantly 6-7 innings of 3 run ball, and he has done just that. He's given up a total of 27 runs in 8 games, which is about 3.3 runs per game. His most common (mode) Earned runs though is 2, though he has gone as high as 5 in one start. Blanton was probably given little consideration in Harden's arrival, since he is the most polished of the pitchers, the least likely to be injured, and probably the least fair to deprive of a spot amongst the current starting five.
Next we have Greg "1-3 PO" Smith, the phenom call up who originally replaced Harden. Smith currently leads the entire team in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) with 10.6, even over the thus-far perfect Santiago Casilla. Over the course of 39 IP through 6 starts he has a 2-1 record and a 2.54 ERA. He posts a 31:13 K:BB ratio, and amazingly leads the MLB in successful pickoffs with 4 (Side Note: Dallas Braden is up there as well with 2, the A's don't run much, but maybe other teams think twice about it too.) Smith only looks to be getting better, but this is his first big-league stint, although he has looked very polished and one wonders what he would have left to learn in AAA.
After Smith, we have Chad "Southern Man" Gaudin, the now bullpen pitcher. Gaudin was known this year for having a near All-Star caliber first half last year before being slowed and then halted by injuries in the second half. Gaudin missed the Japan Series while recovering from an injury but since coming back he's started 6 games, accumulated a 3-2 record and a 3.75 ERA. He has a 26:10 K:BB ratio, and limited batters to a 1.22~ WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched.) He has averaged 6 innings per start, but been a bit inconsistent, twice giving up 5 ER in a start but once throwing 7 shutout innings and twice throwing one-run-ball. Gaudin was assured of a rotation spot so far, but is injury prone, and his workload could be a concern.
Next we have former All-Star Justin "The Duke" Duchscherer. Duke lobbied hard last year for a starting rotation spot and was given one this year with Haren's departure. Duke has already had one stint on the DL this year, but in his on-time he has a 3-1 GS with decisions in all 4 of his starts, accumulating a 2.45 ERA in the process. He's accumulated a 18:5 K:BB ratio by relying on his 12:6 curveball that reminds some of us of Barry Zito. He's only pitched 22 innings though, only gong 5 in his first three starts but going 7 in his most recent start. He's never given up more than 2 ER in any of those starts, and has proven to be quite good when healthy. If the Duke has no pain, and if it looks like he's not liable to be injured and start pitching into the 6th/7th more often, then Duke has a strong case on his hand.
Finally we have Dana "All Hallow's" Eveland (Sorry, I'm running out of nicknames here.) Eveland won the 5th rotation spot from Lenny DiNardo in Spring, and since then has accumulated a 3-2 ERA in 7 Starts, with a 3.05 ERA. His ERA is mostly tainted by a 6 ER performance on the 30th, from which he rebounded on the 5th with 7 innings of shutout ball. He has a 30:18 KK:B ratio, and averages close to 6 innings per start. He hasn't done anything to be removed from his spot so far, although that may be not enough in this group.
First of all, I don't advocate removing Blanton, because he's too dependable and tenured. I also don't advocate Duke leaving, since we need to see what he can do when he's healthy as a starter, much like Gaudin last year. I don't advocate getting rid of Smith either, because I can't imagine a scenario in which Smith should be removed and Eveland shouldn't. That leaves us with 4 options:
1) Replace Eveland with Harden. The benefit of this is that Eveland would make for an excellent Long Reliever, and spot starter for when any of our trio gets injured or needs to skip a start. He's had bullpen experience, and since he's young, he might be more ready for this type of role. Out of the young duo of Smith/Eveland, Eveland has been subject to Smith's domination, and Smith should be rewarded.
2) Replace Gaudin with Eveland. Gaudin is injury prone, and only moved to being a starter last year. He excelled in the bullpen two years ago, and has shown dominant stuff even when limited to a bullpen array. Gaudin would be less likely to injure his arm if he isn't forced to go to his slider so often to get guys out multiple times.
3) Move Harden to the bullpen. This is radical idea #1, the other of which I will explain soon. If all of the guys in the rotation are pitching well, then perhaps there is no need for the moment. Perhaps Harden should take the long relief role, and wait his turn for someone to get injured or come back down to earth. Doing this would give Harden a little more time to be sure he's fully recovered, and would give us dominance out of the bullpen should someone falter.
4) Establish a mini-rotation. I honestly don't know if this has been done before, but perhaps Harden/Duke/Gaudin could perform a mini-rotation, cycling the three of them between two spots and the long relief role. All three of them are injury prone, and having each of them skip their third start might prove an effective strategy for giving them all starts but keeping them healthy down the road for September play. If someone gets injured, then nobody has to "return" to starting form either, and simply move back into a 5-man rotation.
Geren chose option #2, and Gaudin is displeased. Chad feels that it will take him a step back by being forced into the bullpen, and I'm inclined to agree. If it were me, I would have gone with option #1 (as much as I'm tickled by #4.) Eveland has shown a higher walk rate than the other starters, which has coincided with a rise in his Ground ball %. I think Eveland is ready to be a big-league starter, but so far Beane has been resisting trade offers, and I think Eveland is probably the most suited to return to long-relief without being stunted.
Harden will instead take Gaudin's spot, probably moving Dallas Braden back to AAA. With Keith Foulke coming back soon, I surmise that one of the team's five outfielders will be sent down--probably Chris Denorfia since Rajai Davis is a strictly better Pinch Runner/Defensive Replacement than Chris Denorfia, assuming our Starting Outfield is Cust/R. Sweeney/Brown. Davis will be used pretty often in that role, since M. Sweeney and Thomas will often need to be pinch run for in the late innings, and Cust/Brown as corner outfielders might need a strong Centerfielder to compensate.
Monday, May 5, 2008
Contemplating Brown and Cust
The A's have continued their recent success, and remain in 2nd place in the West with 20 wins, 1 behind the League leading Angels and Red Sox. Two players in particular stick out in my mind--Jack Cust and Emil Brown. Even though the pitching has been the real source of the wins, these two position players polarize different arguments for value on the baseball field. Let's outline each player's credentials.
Jack Cust leads the position players in Value Over Replacement Player, a Baseball Prospectus statistic designed to evaluate how much more value a player gives a team than a generic fringe player (Think Todd Walker last year) or a perennial Minor Leaguer (Lou Merloni) would provide. Cust is a walking machine, and has generated an impressive .426 OBP despite a .244 Batting Average. He's hit 4 home runs and recovered from a shaky start to look very impressive, gaining AL Player of the Week honors.
On the downside, Cust is a liability in the field. When the A's acquired Frank Thomas, they made a commitment to using Cust in the field if they want his bat, which will cost them runs in the field. This was no more obvious than in the Angels game wherein he dropped a ball without realizing it, prolonging an inning which lead to 5 runs. He strikes out a lot as well due to his propensity to work deep into counts looking for his pitch/looking to walk, leading to 30 strikeouts to his 25 walks.
Emil Brown leads the team in RBIs with 26, giving him the label of "clutch." The A's brought him in against Left Handed Pitchers, which he has done to the tune of 333/350/436 against them. More interesting though is the 18/26 RBI against RHP. Even though he has an 85:40 plate appearance ratio for at-bats against RHP:LHP, he is still producing RBI's nonetheless against the Right Handed Pitchers. Brown lead the Royals last year in RBIs with 88, and is keeping that label now nonetheless. With Travis Buck out, he has stepped up his game to keep himself as a starter instead of a Pinch Hitter.
On the flip side, he only has four walks on the season, leading to a paltry .296 On Base Percentage. He's already grounded into 4 double plays, more than on pace for his ~14 yearly average. He also is in the top 30 in Baseball in Runners On Base, suggesting he has a high amount of RBI Opportunities (although he ranks behind teammates Mark Ellis and Bobby Crosby,) possibly meaning his high RBI count is merely a product of circumstance.
The question this brings up is, who gets the short end when Buck comes back? Assuming Travis Buck (with his plus defense and 5 tool ability) warrants a starting position when healthy, one of these men will have his time reduced and become mostly a pinch hitter. The answer I believe is in the platoon. The A's will probably carry both of them, letting Chris Denorfia or Rajai Davis (the winner of which battle I'll refer to as Denorvis) get sent down when Buck comes back. This will lead to Denorvis starting in Center, Buck in Right, Cust/Brown platooning in Left, and Sweeney being the super outfielder, filling in for Denorvis and Buck as necessary. Barton/Thomas/M. Sweeney will keep up their little dance, as will Crosby/Ellis/Hannahan/Murphy, and Suzuki/Bowen. That leaves 11 pitchers, 5 of which are starters (Blanton/Smith/Duke/Gaudin/Eveland) and 6 of which are relievers (Street/Embree/Foulke/Casilla/Brown/Devine.)
Next on Wednesday: What to do with Rich Harden when he's healthy, considering the strength of the pitching right now.
Jack Cust leads the position players in Value Over Replacement Player, a Baseball Prospectus statistic designed to evaluate how much more value a player gives a team than a generic fringe player (Think Todd Walker last year) or a perennial Minor Leaguer (Lou Merloni) would provide. Cust is a walking machine, and has generated an impressive .426 OBP despite a .244 Batting Average. He's hit 4 home runs and recovered from a shaky start to look very impressive, gaining AL Player of the Week honors.
On the downside, Cust is a liability in the field. When the A's acquired Frank Thomas, they made a commitment to using Cust in the field if they want his bat, which will cost them runs in the field. This was no more obvious than in the Angels game wherein he dropped a ball without realizing it, prolonging an inning which lead to 5 runs. He strikes out a lot as well due to his propensity to work deep into counts looking for his pitch/looking to walk, leading to 30 strikeouts to his 25 walks.
Emil Brown leads the team in RBIs with 26, giving him the label of "clutch." The A's brought him in against Left Handed Pitchers, which he has done to the tune of 333/350/436 against them. More interesting though is the 18/26 RBI against RHP. Even though he has an 85:40 plate appearance ratio for at-bats against RHP:LHP, he is still producing RBI's nonetheless against the Right Handed Pitchers. Brown lead the Royals last year in RBIs with 88, and is keeping that label now nonetheless. With Travis Buck out, he has stepped up his game to keep himself as a starter instead of a Pinch Hitter.
On the flip side, he only has four walks on the season, leading to a paltry .296 On Base Percentage. He's already grounded into 4 double plays, more than on pace for his ~14 yearly average. He also is in the top 30 in Baseball in Runners On Base, suggesting he has a high amount of RBI Opportunities (although he ranks behind teammates Mark Ellis and Bobby Crosby,) possibly meaning his high RBI count is merely a product of circumstance.
The question this brings up is, who gets the short end when Buck comes back? Assuming Travis Buck (with his plus defense and 5 tool ability) warrants a starting position when healthy, one of these men will have his time reduced and become mostly a pinch hitter. The answer I believe is in the platoon. The A's will probably carry both of them, letting Chris Denorfia or Rajai Davis (the winner of which battle I'll refer to as Denorvis) get sent down when Buck comes back. This will lead to Denorvis starting in Center, Buck in Right, Cust/Brown platooning in Left, and Sweeney being the super outfielder, filling in for Denorvis and Buck as necessary. Barton/Thomas/M. Sweeney will keep up their little dance, as will Crosby/Ellis/Hannahan/Murphy, and Suzuki/Bowen. That leaves 11 pitchers, 5 of which are starters (Blanton/Smith/Duke/Gaudin/Eveland) and 6 of which are relievers (Street/Embree/Foulke/Casilla/Brown/Devine.)
Next on Wednesday: What to do with Rich Harden when he's healthy, considering the strength of the pitching right now.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
The Diamondbacks are for Realsies
At their current pace, the Diamondbacks can do no wrong. Micah Owings (the team's#3 starter) came in to pinch hit today and blasted a 2 run homer to let Randy Johnson off the hook from a poor 1st start. Edgar Gonzalez has been struggling, but thankfully they have #11 pick overall in 2007 Max Scherzer to move into his place, having not given up a run this year in relief. Their dramatic win today moved them into 20-8, already 5 1/2 games in 1st place in a strong NL West, and 2 games in front of anyone else in the MLB.
This team has so much unlimited power I'm expecting them to give in to the Dark Side. Their rotation is anchored by the 6-0 Brandon Webb (Cy Young winner 2 years ago,) followed by American League All Star Game Starter Dan Haren, then Micah Owings who is 4-0 and helps himself with a .416 Batting Average on the month. The back end is comprised of the Big Unit who has the potential to be dominant (though its not likely) and a top 15 pick of last year's draft who has dominating stuff (though Baseball Prospectus sees him more of a closer.)
Speaking of closer, the bullpen remains a key strength. Brandon Lyon has shaken off his rough first outings, and hasn't given up a run since April 6th, accumulating 8 saves in the process. He's set up by Chad Qualls who hasn't given up a run in 14.2 innings this year and Tony Pena. Despite the departure of former closer Jose Valverde, the bullpen is still strong.
The fielding side of the Diamondbacks though is where their longevity will come from. Eric Byrnes at 32 is their eldest player, and he's hardly over the hill. The middle of the order is anchored by Chris Young and Justin Upton, both high-ceiling power hitters (Upton is still only 21 and has the potential to hit 30+ home runs when he reaches his peak.) Finally relieved of the ghost of Tony Clark, Conor Jackson has come alive to the tune of a .341 average, 24 RBI and 23 Runs.
The farm system is so stocked that they could afford to deal 6 good players to the Athletics for Dan Haren and still have enough talent to produce guys like the aforementioned Max Scherzer. Though this system will probably dry up with their recent success, the Diamondbacks aren't a small market team. True, they are in the bottom half of payrolls this year, but their $15 million a year commitment to an ailing Randy Johnson shows that the ownership is willing to give contracts to players who produce for them.
This is a team, honestly, that has no weak links. Even in a tough division, I get more excited every time I watch them. They're young, they're talented, and they have unique personalities that keep the team fun to watch. Out of all the teams that could possibly dominate for years to come, I'm not too upset by the prospect of the Snakes.
This team has so much unlimited power I'm expecting them to give in to the Dark Side. Their rotation is anchored by the 6-0 Brandon Webb (Cy Young winner 2 years ago,) followed by American League All Star Game Starter Dan Haren, then Micah Owings who is 4-0 and helps himself with a .416 Batting Average on the month. The back end is comprised of the Big Unit who has the potential to be dominant (though its not likely) and a top 15 pick of last year's draft who has dominating stuff (though Baseball Prospectus sees him more of a closer.)
Speaking of closer, the bullpen remains a key strength. Brandon Lyon has shaken off his rough first outings, and hasn't given up a run since April 6th, accumulating 8 saves in the process. He's set up by Chad Qualls who hasn't given up a run in 14.2 innings this year and Tony Pena. Despite the departure of former closer Jose Valverde, the bullpen is still strong.
The fielding side of the Diamondbacks though is where their longevity will come from. Eric Byrnes at 32 is their eldest player, and he's hardly over the hill. The middle of the order is anchored by Chris Young and Justin Upton, both high-ceiling power hitters (Upton is still only 21 and has the potential to hit 30+ home runs when he reaches his peak.) Finally relieved of the ghost of Tony Clark, Conor Jackson has come alive to the tune of a .341 average, 24 RBI and 23 Runs.
The farm system is so stocked that they could afford to deal 6 good players to the Athletics for Dan Haren and still have enough talent to produce guys like the aforementioned Max Scherzer. Though this system will probably dry up with their recent success, the Diamondbacks aren't a small market team. True, they are in the bottom half of payrolls this year, but their $15 million a year commitment to an ailing Randy Johnson shows that the ownership is willing to give contracts to players who produce for them.
This is a team, honestly, that has no weak links. Even in a tough division, I get more excited every time I watch them. They're young, they're talented, and they have unique personalities that keep the team fun to watch. Out of all the teams that could possibly dominate for years to come, I'm not too upset by the prospect of the Snakes.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Bullpen Barry
The Giants made the decision recently to send Barry Zito to the bullpen, in a long relief role. Pat Misch will take his next start, leaving the Giants with four starters with Correia hitting the Disabled List. The Giants can wait until May 10th to decide whether or not they want to put Barry Zito in that slot, so there may be hope for him.
The Giants decided to make this switch in light of Zito's absolutely atrocious start. He is one of only three pitchers to accumulate six losses in the month of April, racking up a 7.53 ERA in the process. Zito, and a 15:11 BB:K ratio. Zito says he knows something is wrong, but claims he just has to pitch through it. He is incessantly booed at Giants games for failing to deliver on his $125 million contract, which at the time was the largest contract for a pitcher (outdone by Johan Santana's recent Mets contract.)
What does this mean for Zito? This is the first time in his career he's going to miss a start. He's never had to go on the Disabled List, and he's never pitched bad enough to warrant being removed from the rotation. Zito has caught some tough breaks to be fair including poor defensive play, but perhaps the problem lies deeper.
Zito's curveball has often been rated as the best in Baseball. When he's on, he flabbergasts hitters in ways that leave them shaking their head speechless as to what they can do against it. But his heyday seems to have come and gone. Zito has become too reliant on the big break, trying to lure batters to chase pitches out of the zone, causing a high walk rate. This has been constant over the years though for Barry.
Perhaps the problem lies in his personality. Zito is known for being eclectic and easy-going, and perhaps his routine over the last several years has simply been that he can pitch through it and things will turn out relatively alright. Oakland was always behind him all the time because of his presence in the Big Three (Hudson/Mulder/Zito.) Even when he was poor, Oakland was behind him. This isn't the case for San Francisco. With the loss of Bonds and the sudden realization that the Giants are a very sub-par team, they want results out of their $125 million dollar man. They boo Zito when he is introduced for his poor performance, and Zito is only continuing their hatred with his performance. He can't keep up his easy-going performance when he plays so poorly and the Giants fans demand Zito blood. Giants fans need a martyr to pin their poor play on, and Zito is begging for it with his high contract and antipathy towards inevitability.
I think this will be good for Zito. He needs to rethink his process--some clutch performances out of the pen would reaffirm him to the fans, and a break from schedule might give him more time to iron out the kinks in his delivery that have developed over the years. He hasn't had to fight for a position for a good amount of time, and perhaps this sudden change will light a fire under him and get him to pitch like the Zito of old. He needs to re-learn that he doesn't need to miss bats to be effective. His 30% Groundball/Flyball rate is too low for an offspeed pitcher of his caliber (and about 10% lower than his average), and can be improved upon to produce more outs.
Zito is obviously overpaid for an innings-eating starter with a ~4.00 ERA (which is what was expected statistically,) but his environment is getting to him. He said on the record last year that he was putting too much pressure on himself as the team's ace, and even did well in his only relief appearance last year. With the loss of Bonds and Giants fans looking for the other Barry to carry the team, Zito is simply digging his grave deeper and deeper with every start. He'll come around, but he'll have to do it in the bullpen, since it's clear that this routine is taking him nowhere, and the Giants are going down with him.
The Giants decided to make this switch in light of Zito's absolutely atrocious start. He is one of only three pitchers to accumulate six losses in the month of April, racking up a 7.53 ERA in the process. Zito, and a 15:11 BB:K ratio. Zito says he knows something is wrong, but claims he just has to pitch through it. He is incessantly booed at Giants games for failing to deliver on his $125 million contract, which at the time was the largest contract for a pitcher (outdone by Johan Santana's recent Mets contract.)
What does this mean for Zito? This is the first time in his career he's going to miss a start. He's never had to go on the Disabled List, and he's never pitched bad enough to warrant being removed from the rotation. Zito has caught some tough breaks to be fair including poor defensive play, but perhaps the problem lies deeper.
Zito's curveball has often been rated as the best in Baseball. When he's on, he flabbergasts hitters in ways that leave them shaking their head speechless as to what they can do against it. But his heyday seems to have come and gone. Zito has become too reliant on the big break, trying to lure batters to chase pitches out of the zone, causing a high walk rate. This has been constant over the years though for Barry.
Perhaps the problem lies in his personality. Zito is known for being eclectic and easy-going, and perhaps his routine over the last several years has simply been that he can pitch through it and things will turn out relatively alright. Oakland was always behind him all the time because of his presence in the Big Three (Hudson/Mulder/Zito.) Even when he was poor, Oakland was behind him. This isn't the case for San Francisco. With the loss of Bonds and the sudden realization that the Giants are a very sub-par team, they want results out of their $125 million dollar man. They boo Zito when he is introduced for his poor performance, and Zito is only continuing their hatred with his performance. He can't keep up his easy-going performance when he plays so poorly and the Giants fans demand Zito blood. Giants fans need a martyr to pin their poor play on, and Zito is begging for it with his high contract and antipathy towards inevitability.
I think this will be good for Zito. He needs to rethink his process--some clutch performances out of the pen would reaffirm him to the fans, and a break from schedule might give him more time to iron out the kinks in his delivery that have developed over the years. He hasn't had to fight for a position for a good amount of time, and perhaps this sudden change will light a fire under him and get him to pitch like the Zito of old. He needs to re-learn that he doesn't need to miss bats to be effective. His 30% Groundball/Flyball rate is too low for an offspeed pitcher of his caliber (and about 10% lower than his average), and can be improved upon to produce more outs.
Zito is obviously overpaid for an innings-eating starter with a ~4.00 ERA (which is what was expected statistically,) but his environment is getting to him. He said on the record last year that he was putting too much pressure on himself as the team's ace, and even did well in his only relief appearance last year. With the loss of Bonds and Giants fans looking for the other Barry to carry the team, Zito is simply digging his grave deeper and deeper with every start. He'll come around, but he'll have to do it in the bullpen, since it's clear that this routine is taking him nowhere, and the Giants are going down with him.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
The A's revolving door lets in two more
"Are we trying to develop a young team? Yeah, but we are not running an instructional league. We are running a professional sports franchise." -- Billy Beane.
This is exactly the kind of thing that Beane needed to say to put his fans at ease. A's fans were surprised today by the decision to bring back Frank Thomas, who was released by the Toronto Blue Jays. It was a matter of time, really, to see where Frank ended up. Even though he probably won't be able to produce as he used to, Toronto's outright release of him forces them to pay out the majority of his contract, while the A's only have to pay him a Major League minimum of $350,000.
Thomas, who is a big fan favorite, said he never wanted to leave Oakland but the money after 2006 wasn't right. Now that money isn't an issue, Thomas' first choice was to come back to Oakland, and here he lands. This may seem a bit puzzling to Baseball observers, since the A's are already stocked at the DH position with Jack Cust and Mike Sweeney. Daric Barton has taken over full time duties as 1st Baseman, and Geren said he has named Thomas the full-time DH. In all likelihood, this will push Mike Sweeney to the role of Pinch-Hit Specialist, and backup 1st Baseman/DH. In other words, he is what Dan Johnson has been to the A's for the last few years. The other option is to release Sweeney, much like the A's did with Todd Walker last year. This isn't a terrible option, but I don't foresee the A's doing it unless Sweeney expresses anger at having his playing time cut.
Thomas is off to a slow start, but he always has been a slow starter. His first few games were monstrous, but since then he has hit for a low average. On the plus side, he has been hitting home runs and drawing walks, which is what he usually does. The decision by the Blue Jays to release him was rather silly, and Beane capitalized on it. Baseball Prospectus, going into this year, predicted 20 home runs for Thomas while only allowing 425 At-Bats for him predicting injury. That translates to 29-30 home runs if he can stay healthy all year and get 625 At Bats. For the power-starved A's, Thomas' big bat is welcome.
The A's also claimed Rajai Davis off waivers from the Giants, who released him due to a surplus of Outfielders. They seem to have more confidence in Fred Lewis, who has slightly more Pop. Rajai Davis is a true Centerfielder, which is what the A's have been starved for since the offseason. He has incredible speed, and has the capability to get over 40 steals in a season, which he did twice in the minors. He will probably play Center and bat leadoff for the A's as long as Buck is on the disabled list. His OBP average over 3 years around the minors is around 340, which is somewhat low, but I'm sure the A's will work with him to draw more walks than he had been with the Pirates and the Giants, which should raise his OBP.
If everyone were healthy, this changes our ideal 25 man roster, which now would probably look something like this:
C Kurt Suzuki
1B Daric Barton
2B Mark Ellis
SS Bobby Crosby
3B Eric Chavez
RF Travis Buck
CF Rajai Davis
LF Jack Cust
DH Frank Thomas
BN Mike Sweeney
BN Donnie Murphy
BN Jack Hannahan
BN Emil Brown
BN Rob Bowen
SP Joe Blanton
SP Rich Harden
SP Justin Duchscherer
SP Chad Gaudin
SP Dana Eveland
CL Huston Street
SU Keith Foulke
SU Alan Embree
LR Lenny DiNardo
RP Santiago Casilla
RP Andrew Brown
Absent from this list are Chris Denorfia, Ryan Sweeney, and Dan Johnson. Denorfia I imagine will get reassigned to AAA when Buck comes back due to his poor range in the Outfield so far and marginal bat. Johnson was waived by the A's last week and picked up by the Devil Rays. I like the Raj over Sweeney due to his real ability to play center, and Sweeney being marginal so far at the plate. Those two could switch depending on their respective performances over the next few weeks.
We'll have to see how this develops, but it should make the A's better at the plate to back up their league-leading Team ERA of 3.24. Beane has seen his team is outperforming expectations, and these are two moves that cost the A's virtually nothing. This doesn't instantly make the A's the best team in the AL West, but it does address two big concerns: Centerfield, and the lack of power.
This is exactly the kind of thing that Beane needed to say to put his fans at ease. A's fans were surprised today by the decision to bring back Frank Thomas, who was released by the Toronto Blue Jays. It was a matter of time, really, to see where Frank ended up. Even though he probably won't be able to produce as he used to, Toronto's outright release of him forces them to pay out the majority of his contract, while the A's only have to pay him a Major League minimum of $350,000.
Thomas, who is a big fan favorite, said he never wanted to leave Oakland but the money after 2006 wasn't right. Now that money isn't an issue, Thomas' first choice was to come back to Oakland, and here he lands. This may seem a bit puzzling to Baseball observers, since the A's are already stocked at the DH position with Jack Cust and Mike Sweeney. Daric Barton has taken over full time duties as 1st Baseman, and Geren said he has named Thomas the full-time DH. In all likelihood, this will push Mike Sweeney to the role of Pinch-Hit Specialist, and backup 1st Baseman/DH. In other words, he is what Dan Johnson has been to the A's for the last few years. The other option is to release Sweeney, much like the A's did with Todd Walker last year. This isn't a terrible option, but I don't foresee the A's doing it unless Sweeney expresses anger at having his playing time cut.
Thomas is off to a slow start, but he always has been a slow starter. His first few games were monstrous, but since then he has hit for a low average. On the plus side, he has been hitting home runs and drawing walks, which is what he usually does. The decision by the Blue Jays to release him was rather silly, and Beane capitalized on it. Baseball Prospectus, going into this year, predicted 20 home runs for Thomas while only allowing 425 At-Bats for him predicting injury. That translates to 29-30 home runs if he can stay healthy all year and get 625 At Bats. For the power-starved A's, Thomas' big bat is welcome.
The A's also claimed Rajai Davis off waivers from the Giants, who released him due to a surplus of Outfielders. They seem to have more confidence in Fred Lewis, who has slightly more Pop. Rajai Davis is a true Centerfielder, which is what the A's have been starved for since the offseason. He has incredible speed, and has the capability to get over 40 steals in a season, which he did twice in the minors. He will probably play Center and bat leadoff for the A's as long as Buck is on the disabled list. His OBP average over 3 years around the minors is around 340, which is somewhat low, but I'm sure the A's will work with him to draw more walks than he had been with the Pirates and the Giants, which should raise his OBP.
If everyone were healthy, this changes our ideal 25 man roster, which now would probably look something like this:
C Kurt Suzuki
1B Daric Barton
2B Mark Ellis
SS Bobby Crosby
3B Eric Chavez
RF Travis Buck
CF Rajai Davis
LF Jack Cust
DH Frank Thomas
BN Mike Sweeney
BN Donnie Murphy
BN Jack Hannahan
BN Emil Brown
BN Rob Bowen
SP Joe Blanton
SP Rich Harden
SP Justin Duchscherer
SP Chad Gaudin
SP Dana Eveland
CL Huston Street
SU Keith Foulke
SU Alan Embree
LR Lenny DiNardo
RP Santiago Casilla
RP Andrew Brown
Absent from this list are Chris Denorfia, Ryan Sweeney, and Dan Johnson. Denorfia I imagine will get reassigned to AAA when Buck comes back due to his poor range in the Outfield so far and marginal bat. Johnson was waived by the A's last week and picked up by the Devil Rays. I like the Raj over Sweeney due to his real ability to play center, and Sweeney being marginal so far at the plate. Those two could switch depending on their respective performances over the next few weeks.
We'll have to see how this develops, but it should make the A's better at the plate to back up their league-leading Team ERA of 3.24. Beane has seen his team is outperforming expectations, and these are two moves that cost the A's virtually nothing. This doesn't instantly make the A's the best team in the AL West, but it does address two big concerns: Centerfield, and the lack of power.
Monday, April 21, 2008
John Bowker: The Man, the Myth, the Conundrum
In order to fill a power void, the Giants recently brought up breakout AA guy John Bowker to serve as a pinch hit specialist role. This move was taken with some skepticism, as Nate Schierholtz seemed to be more polished for the Pinch Hitter/5th Outfielder role, but Bowker came nonetheless-and he brought a lot of pop. He's already raked 3 home runs and a triple in 22 at bats, with 9 RBIs. The Giants are thrilled with his early success, and even started him at 1st Base recently in order to harness his hot streak.
"Bye Bye Bowker," as he was called in a recent Giants telecast, wasn't predicted to do much of anything this year. The Baseball Prospectus 2008 almanac, which gives predictions for over 1600 players, barely mentions Bowker. All they wrote was that he found his bat again at AA after struggling in A ball since 2004, but that "He's an inferior version of Schierholtz, and unlikely to build on his progress."
So what do you do with a guy like John Bowker? Ride the lightning until it stops? Conventional wisdom says he can't keep this up forever--he never even played a game in AAA ball. At the same time, the Giants need to cultivate their young players if they want any hope of success down the road.
In my opinion, the Giants should ride the Bowker Train as long as it keeps going. Sure, Bowker will cool down eventually; pitchers will figure him out and he'll stop getting good wood on the ball. At that point, I think the Giants will probably make a switch between him and Schierholtz. Schierholtz will hopefully have learned some better plate discipline down in AAA, and Bowker can refine himself a little more. I just can't imagine he's a finished product at this point since we have a small sample size of him being good. If he doesn't drop hard though, and merely levels off to being league average, then start him in the outfield. This team needs pop, and he's young.
"Bye Bye Bowker," as he was called in a recent Giants telecast, wasn't predicted to do much of anything this year. The Baseball Prospectus 2008 almanac, which gives predictions for over 1600 players, barely mentions Bowker. All they wrote was that he found his bat again at AA after struggling in A ball since 2004, but that "He's an inferior version of Schierholtz, and unlikely to build on his progress."
So what do you do with a guy like John Bowker? Ride the lightning until it stops? Conventional wisdom says he can't keep this up forever--he never even played a game in AAA ball. At the same time, the Giants need to cultivate their young players if they want any hope of success down the road.
In my opinion, the Giants should ride the Bowker Train as long as it keeps going. Sure, Bowker will cool down eventually; pitchers will figure him out and he'll stop getting good wood on the ball. At that point, I think the Giants will probably make a switch between him and Schierholtz. Schierholtz will hopefully have learned some better plate discipline down in AAA, and Bowker can refine himself a little more. I just can't imagine he's a finished product at this point since we have a small sample size of him being good. If he doesn't drop hard though, and merely levels off to being league average, then start him in the outfield. This team needs pop, and he's young.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Stopping at 250 is apparently an act of concern
Earlier this week in a Japanese High School game, a young pitcher was getting walloped to the tune of 66 runs in less than two full innings (Source.) The Coach yanked his pitcher after 250 pitches because he may have gotten to 500, and you know, you gotta show concern for the kid.
This is another part of the Japanese mentality. This poor kid gave up 26 runs in the 1st inning, and was still let to pitch the 2nd inning. A lot of times when young players are growing up, they need to be taught fighting spirit. Kids will be walloped on until they can take no more, because they need to face the pressure. When Baseball was introduced to Japan, this sort of exercise took the form of the legendary 1000 fungo drill and similar drills.
The 1000 Fungo Drill was where a player would take the field, and the coach would hit groundballs or flyballs at them just out of their reach until they collapsed in pain from diving so much. In another similar exercise, pitchers would be made to hang from trees by their arms until they basically fell off (after they finished pitching practice.) The idea here was that they could learn lessons about how to play the game. They would be taught to play through the pain and trust their coach.
This is the biggest difference between Japanese and American baseball. I hate using the "Zen" cliche when talking about Japanese baseball, but this sort of incident proves that some of the old boys still have that mentality. American baseball coaches would be labeled as sadistic and cruel for doing this--anything over 100 pitches at that age could quite feasibly break a kid's arm.
It's sad, but sometimes this is how things go. If you ever wonder why Daisuke Matsuzaka can undertake such high pitch counts, and endure high pressure situations with such poise, its because of the environments. Although he was never made to throw 250 pitches in two innings like this poor sap, he was subjected to the same environment.
This is another part of the Japanese mentality. This poor kid gave up 26 runs in the 1st inning, and was still let to pitch the 2nd inning. A lot of times when young players are growing up, they need to be taught fighting spirit. Kids will be walloped on until they can take no more, because they need to face the pressure. When Baseball was introduced to Japan, this sort of exercise took the form of the legendary 1000 fungo drill and similar drills.
The 1000 Fungo Drill was where a player would take the field, and the coach would hit groundballs or flyballs at them just out of their reach until they collapsed in pain from diving so much. In another similar exercise, pitchers would be made to hang from trees by their arms until they basically fell off (after they finished pitching practice.) The idea here was that they could learn lessons about how to play the game. They would be taught to play through the pain and trust their coach.
This is the biggest difference between Japanese and American baseball. I hate using the "Zen" cliche when talking about Japanese baseball, but this sort of incident proves that some of the old boys still have that mentality. American baseball coaches would be labeled as sadistic and cruel for doing this--anything over 100 pitches at that age could quite feasibly break a kid's arm.
It's sad, but sometimes this is how things go. If you ever wonder why Daisuke Matsuzaka can undertake such high pitch counts, and endure high pressure situations with such poise, its because of the environments. Although he was never made to throw 250 pitches in two innings like this poor sap, he was subjected to the same environment.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
The Duties of the Manager
The Manager is an interesting position to contemplate. At the surface, the Manager's duties are to decide the starting lineup including pitcher, handle in-game decisions such as players substitutions and calls to the bullpen, and coordinate in-game plays like the sacrifice bunt and the Hit and Run. Beyond that, the Manager has to deal with player anomalies and extenuating circumstances. When contemplating a Manager's skill, both of these elements have to be analyzed.
Many statistical analysts are under the opinion that one's value as a Manager is measured by how few runs you cost your team. Analysts like those at Baseball Prospectus tend to believe that special plays like the Sacrifice Bunt are overused and are almost always used in the wrong situation. By this measure, a good Manager is one who doesn't try to get tricky too often and just lets his players play. This philosophy is often held up by players as well, who believe the "let the players play" style allows players to feel more free and comfortable. Dusty Baker is notoriously bad at this in the statistical sphere, while Ted Williams was quite good.
The intangible aspect to Managing is the handling of players. Alfonso Soriano wants to bat leadoff, and often times he bats poorly when put out of position. The New York Yankees are constantly being stifled and second guessed by a brutal New York Media. These issues are the kind of thing that Managers have to deal with so their players won't have to. Joe Torre is supposedly very good at this.
The main reason I bring this up is Lou Piniella. Piniella at the moment has to face the aforementioned Soriano question (at least he will when Soriano returns from today's Disabled List stint.) Soriano went 0-8 in the #2 spot after two games and Piniella decided to move him into the Leadoff Spot, where Soriano has always wanted to bat. Soriano has great speed, but a career .326 On Base Percentage leaves something to be desired. Soriano is a perfect candidate for the Cleanup role, really. He has great power, and can leadoff more 2nd innings if the 1-2-3 batters go down. He wants to bat in the leadoff spot in order to try and prove he can get back to his old 40 stolen base form.
Piniella here has to juggle the competing interests here. Soriano is better suited in spots where he can get RBIs, and use his power to hit other runners in. At the same time, Piniella has to consider whether or not Soriano has a real emotional tie to the leadoff spot. If Soriano actually will bat better in the leadoff spot because he believes he can, how much does that warrant batting him in an inferior spot?
I'm curious as to what value General Managers place on the balance of these things. How much can a person rely on the intangibles while at the same time accepting one's poor statistical decisions, or vice versa? How good can a manager be at statistical decisions if his players run rampant and throw temper tantrums all the time?
Many statistical analysts are under the opinion that one's value as a Manager is measured by how few runs you cost your team. Analysts like those at Baseball Prospectus tend to believe that special plays like the Sacrifice Bunt are overused and are almost always used in the wrong situation. By this measure, a good Manager is one who doesn't try to get tricky too often and just lets his players play. This philosophy is often held up by players as well, who believe the "let the players play" style allows players to feel more free and comfortable. Dusty Baker is notoriously bad at this in the statistical sphere, while Ted Williams was quite good.
The intangible aspect to Managing is the handling of players. Alfonso Soriano wants to bat leadoff, and often times he bats poorly when put out of position. The New York Yankees are constantly being stifled and second guessed by a brutal New York Media. These issues are the kind of thing that Managers have to deal with so their players won't have to. Joe Torre is supposedly very good at this.
The main reason I bring this up is Lou Piniella. Piniella at the moment has to face the aforementioned Soriano question (at least he will when Soriano returns from today's Disabled List stint.) Soriano went 0-8 in the #2 spot after two games and Piniella decided to move him into the Leadoff Spot, where Soriano has always wanted to bat. Soriano has great speed, but a career .326 On Base Percentage leaves something to be desired. Soriano is a perfect candidate for the Cleanup role, really. He has great power, and can leadoff more 2nd innings if the 1-2-3 batters go down. He wants to bat in the leadoff spot in order to try and prove he can get back to his old 40 stolen base form.
Piniella here has to juggle the competing interests here. Soriano is better suited in spots where he can get RBIs, and use his power to hit other runners in. At the same time, Piniella has to consider whether or not Soriano has a real emotional tie to the leadoff spot. If Soriano actually will bat better in the leadoff spot because he believes he can, how much does that warrant batting him in an inferior spot?
I'm curious as to what value General Managers place on the balance of these things. How much can a person rely on the intangibles while at the same time accepting one's poor statistical decisions, or vice versa? How good can a manager be at statistical decisions if his players run rampant and throw temper tantrums all the time?
Monday, April 14, 2008
The Harden Dilemma
As the A's have now taken their hot streak to winning 6 of their last 7 games, some A's fans found themselves looking for the proverbial arm pinch to keep them on earth. That came late last week with Rich Harden being put on the Disabled List, making this season feel a little bit more like home.
What do the A's do with Rich Harden? If you don't know, Rich Harden is the #2 starter for the A's. He's gifted with four great pitches: A century fastball, plus changeup, slider, and a splitter that is so erratic at the end it's basically unpredictable. Harden's downfall is that he's very easily injured due to his moderate frame and overexpense in his throwing motion. He's got the stuff to be amazing, but he just hasn't proven any longevity. The debate I'd like to explore here is whether or not to move Harden to the bullpen.
On one hand you have Rich Harden, the amazing pitcher who historically hasn't been able to handle starting. The obvious solution to a guy who has dominating stuff but can only do it for a few innings is to make them close. Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, and Joe Nathan are all dominating pitchers that can't start. If the A's could even have Harden for a few innings a week as a lights out closer, that's obviously better than having him start 7-8 games a year in between disabled list visits.
On the other hand, you have what might be a lot of wasted talent. Most dominating closers can get by with one or two pitches. If Harden were to move to the bullpen, he would probably use is Fastball and Changeup in order to reduce the strain on his arm, since you don't need to rely on variety to get the same guys out three or four times a game. Harden has the stuff to strike guys out that many times since he has so many tools to go too in pressure situations. If somehow he could stay healthy, then he would be one of the more dominating pitchers in the league, if not Hall of Fame caliber. A top notch starter is more valuable than a top notch reliever, due to the longevity and reliability, not to mention in a loaded bullpen like the A's with a sketchy starting rotation.
The other added dimension is how he may be best marketable. I hate to talk about players in terms of commodities, but if the A's are continuing their youth movement, then Harden could fetch a lot of prospects. As a closer, he'd fetch probably a package similar to the Swisher deal. If he were a 30 start-pitcher, he'd get something better than Haren and Swisher put together. Beane has to think about how best to look to the future.
At what point does Beane stop the gamble? Harden has said he prefers starting to the bullpen, but the bullpen to the disabled list. I think we'd all like to see as much Harden as we can, even if that means two pitch-bullpen Harden. It's sad to see him have to hit the list so much and hear people scoff at him as a never-was, but A's fans like to hold on to that glimmer of hope that somewhere in that fragile frame we have the next Christy Mathewson.
There isn't a right answer to this question unfortunately, but I think that this is the last season Harden has to prove himself as a starter. The rebuilding plan probably won't be in full effect until at least next year, so he's got time to be marketable. Huston Street's contract is up this year, so if the A's can't sign him to a longer contract, they'll need an heir to his throne if they don't like anyone in the bullpen now. Harden could take next offseason to make the switch and still have half a season to be traded to another team if the A's want to make it so. This would be the Kerry Wood route, and we'll see for ourselves how this works with the Cubs. Otherwise he may end up a Mark Prior--ridiculous stuff, never a chance to show it.
What do the A's do with Rich Harden? If you don't know, Rich Harden is the #2 starter for the A's. He's gifted with four great pitches: A century fastball, plus changeup, slider, and a splitter that is so erratic at the end it's basically unpredictable. Harden's downfall is that he's very easily injured due to his moderate frame and overexpense in his throwing motion. He's got the stuff to be amazing, but he just hasn't proven any longevity. The debate I'd like to explore here is whether or not to move Harden to the bullpen.
On one hand you have Rich Harden, the amazing pitcher who historically hasn't been able to handle starting. The obvious solution to a guy who has dominating stuff but can only do it for a few innings is to make them close. Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, and Joe Nathan are all dominating pitchers that can't start. If the A's could even have Harden for a few innings a week as a lights out closer, that's obviously better than having him start 7-8 games a year in between disabled list visits.
On the other hand, you have what might be a lot of wasted talent. Most dominating closers can get by with one or two pitches. If Harden were to move to the bullpen, he would probably use is Fastball and Changeup in order to reduce the strain on his arm, since you don't need to rely on variety to get the same guys out three or four times a game. Harden has the stuff to strike guys out that many times since he has so many tools to go too in pressure situations. If somehow he could stay healthy, then he would be one of the more dominating pitchers in the league, if not Hall of Fame caliber. A top notch starter is more valuable than a top notch reliever, due to the longevity and reliability, not to mention in a loaded bullpen like the A's with a sketchy starting rotation.
The other added dimension is how he may be best marketable. I hate to talk about players in terms of commodities, but if the A's are continuing their youth movement, then Harden could fetch a lot of prospects. As a closer, he'd fetch probably a package similar to the Swisher deal. If he were a 30 start-pitcher, he'd get something better than Haren and Swisher put together. Beane has to think about how best to look to the future.
At what point does Beane stop the gamble? Harden has said he prefers starting to the bullpen, but the bullpen to the disabled list. I think we'd all like to see as much Harden as we can, even if that means two pitch-bullpen Harden. It's sad to see him have to hit the list so much and hear people scoff at him as a never-was, but A's fans like to hold on to that glimmer of hope that somewhere in that fragile frame we have the next Christy Mathewson.
There isn't a right answer to this question unfortunately, but I think that this is the last season Harden has to prove himself as a starter. The rebuilding plan probably won't be in full effect until at least next year, so he's got time to be marketable. Huston Street's contract is up this year, so if the A's can't sign him to a longer contract, they'll need an heir to his throne if they don't like anyone in the bullpen now. Harden could take next offseason to make the switch and still have half a season to be traded to another team if the A's want to make it so. This would be the Kerry Wood route, and we'll see for ourselves how this works with the Cubs. Otherwise he may end up a Mark Prior--ridiculous stuff, never a chance to show it.
Saturday, April 12, 2008
On Eckstein
Spring Cleaning is underway with the A's sweeping the Blue Jays in three very close games, and then taking two from the Indians at time of writing. One thing that ran through my mind through the games with the Jays was David Eckstein, the shortstop for the Blue Jays. He's been called "pesky," "scrappy," "gritty" and many other backhanded compliments, and believe it or not he is a very polarizing figure.
David Eckstein plays every second like there's a gun to his head. He's a decent fielder at shortstop -- the hardest offensive position besides catcher and pitcher, but for different reasons. Shortstop requires immense athleticism, and Eckstein provides it. Furthermore, you'll often see him diving head first into 1st base to avoid a tag, and other such feats. This is where Eckstein gets his "scrappy" label. Eckstein isn't overpowering with his 5'6 170lb frame, and while he does have solid speed to the tune of averaging 18 SB per season (though this has deteriorated over the last three seasons,) he relies on his compact-contact swing to put him in a position to get him on base through this athleticism.
This 100% approach makes him a lovable figure in the eyes of sports writers and fans. Baseball has the interesting element of seeming accessible to the average human being. The average human can'tbox out a 7 foot Yao Ming to get the rebound, or go pound for pound against Warren Sapp at the line of scrimmage, and they don't believe they can. David Eckstein though, with his bunt singles, solid speed and good technique don't seem all that otherworldly though. People root for Eckstein because they want to cling to the idea that if we work hard enough, we can achieve anything. In a baseball world dominated by steroids, Eckstein is the new version of the American Dream. He and Shaun White are probably the two figures in sports that would demoralize me the most if they tested positive for 'roids.
Some people don't like him though. The professional writers over at www.firejoemorgan.com tend to pick on him. Some people tend to think that this "grit," if you will, that Eckstein possesses is some sort of mythical Baseball-turbo-juice that allows Eckstein to shine but can't be mathematically quantified. Some players get better through doping; Eckstein just pulls something extra out of the adrenaline vault. Some of the more statistically inclined fans think that this force is overrated since there exists no statistics to prove it. They see Eckstein as having a sub-par On Base Percentage to bat leadoff, and his reputation as clutch (also not yet mathematically proven) inflates his reputation.
While there is some merit to this disbelief, nobody would argue that just because people haven't mathematically quantified it, that means it doesn't exist. I think the David Eckstein-esque argument that proves to serve up the most heated debates between more traditional writers and Sports Geeks. Eckstein is fun to watch, hard working, and good at what he does for the most part, yet Sports Geeks tend to scoff a bit whenever the essence of "grit" is conjured up. I think there needs to be compromise on both sides. Eckstein is, in reality, an extremely talented baseball player. Anyone who reaches the Major Leagues is more talented than any normal fan, and Eckstein is notable even amongst this class (multiple times an All-Star.) While this ability does come in large part from hard work, it doesn't come from the Baseball Gods shining upon him by bestowing "scrappiness" upon him.
David Eckstein is talented, skilled, and good. Can't we just give him credit for that without having to explain it with the "gritty" and "pesky" labels?
David Eckstein plays every second like there's a gun to his head. He's a decent fielder at shortstop -- the hardest offensive position besides catcher and pitcher, but for different reasons. Shortstop requires immense athleticism, and Eckstein provides it. Furthermore, you'll often see him diving head first into 1st base to avoid a tag, and other such feats. This is where Eckstein gets his "scrappy" label. Eckstein isn't overpowering with his 5'6 170lb frame, and while he does have solid speed to the tune of averaging 18 SB per season (though this has deteriorated over the last three seasons,) he relies on his compact-contact swing to put him in a position to get him on base through this athleticism.
This 100% approach makes him a lovable figure in the eyes of sports writers and fans. Baseball has the interesting element of seeming accessible to the average human being. The average human can'tbox out a 7 foot Yao Ming to get the rebound, or go pound for pound against Warren Sapp at the line of scrimmage, and they don't believe they can. David Eckstein though, with his bunt singles, solid speed and good technique don't seem all that otherworldly though. People root for Eckstein because they want to cling to the idea that if we work hard enough, we can achieve anything. In a baseball world dominated by steroids, Eckstein is the new version of the American Dream. He and Shaun White are probably the two figures in sports that would demoralize me the most if they tested positive for 'roids.
Some people don't like him though. The professional writers over at www.firejoemorgan.com tend to pick on him. Some people tend to think that this "grit," if you will, that Eckstein possesses is some sort of mythical Baseball-turbo-juice that allows Eckstein to shine but can't be mathematically quantified. Some players get better through doping; Eckstein just pulls something extra out of the adrenaline vault. Some of the more statistically inclined fans think that this force is overrated since there exists no statistics to prove it. They see Eckstein as having a sub-par On Base Percentage to bat leadoff, and his reputation as clutch (also not yet mathematically proven) inflates his reputation.
While there is some merit to this disbelief, nobody would argue that just because people haven't mathematically quantified it, that means it doesn't exist. I think the David Eckstein-esque argument that proves to serve up the most heated debates between more traditional writers and Sports Geeks. Eckstein is fun to watch, hard working, and good at what he does for the most part, yet Sports Geeks tend to scoff a bit whenever the essence of "grit" is conjured up. I think there needs to be compromise on both sides. Eckstein is, in reality, an extremely talented baseball player. Anyone who reaches the Major Leagues is more talented than any normal fan, and Eckstein is notable even amongst this class (multiple times an All-Star.) While this ability does come in large part from hard work, it doesn't come from the Baseball Gods shining upon him by bestowing "scrappiness" upon him.
David Eckstein is talented, skilled, and good. Can't we just give him credit for that without having to explain it with the "gritty" and "pesky" labels?
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
A's thoughts
It's been an interesting couple of days when the A's play the Jays, not at the bay, but on a day where they pay to say away to D-J...I'll stop now.
1) Chad Gaudin is on his way back, but he's not there yet. He had flashes of great form--striking out Rios, Wells, and Thomas on identical great sliders was great to watch, but seeing Aaron Hill punt that same slider over the left field fence was bad. Wells took him yard too for 3 runs in the first as he struggled early. After the first few innings, he at least knew what he was doing. He looked like he threw his pitches in the appropriate counts, and his out-pitch slider was in command. He did throw a couple juicy ones, but thankfully AJ Burnett did the same.
SUPER BONUS SECTION: Man, AJ Burnett is one mean looking fellow. He reminds me of John Gruden, the coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and former coach of the Raiders. When Lyle Overbay (1st baseman for the Jays) took a putout unassisted instead of flipping it to Burnett, I thought someone's face was going to get bitten off. Remind me not to cross him.
2) The Rotation is going down...fast. Harden skipped a start and is now doubtful for Sunday. Duchscherer is on the 15 day disabled list. Greg Smith performed rather well today, and it's probably good enough to keep him in the Duke's spot for now. If Harden goes down, the A's will probably go with Dallas Braden or Lenny DiNardo to replace him. Braden has a bit more upside, and could use work getting his changeup working against Major League Hitters. DiNardo is a bit more established, but the A's are fearful of his second half, when the entire League figured him out and his ERA skyrocketed. I'm not too worried about Duke--he wasn't a key piece of the rotation and the A's have arms in AA that can at least provide a positive VORP alternative, but Harden worries me. The A's really need Harden to at least provide 25 starts to stand a chance, and this is pretty early to already be suffering stiffness.
3) The Bats are picking up, although its the same ones. Sweeney and Suzuki have looked outstanding lately, and I'm pleased with them as well as Mark Ellis. Travis Buck has remembered how to put em where they aint, and the recent trend of extra base hits puts me a bit more at ease. Jack Cust is still in a funk, and he's a key provider of pop in this lineup, but we can expect him to be a bit streaky as part of his nature.
4) The Bullpen excites me more and more with every day. Huston Street settled in, recording two no-home-run saves in a row. Foulke looks like he's returned to form, and will dual with Embree for a Righty/Lefty combo of setup men. Combining those three with Santiago Casilla and Andrew Brown whom I have full confidence in as well as Fernando Hernandez who looked solid today gives me a lot of confidence if our starters can give six quality innings.
On another note, the Giants have taken two dramatic games in a row, and Jonathan Sanchez was 7/13/77 of New York on the mound today. They're close, but these heart pounding games are the kind of wins that will be typical para Los Gigantes. If the Giants are going to win games consistently this season, it will be through good pitching, good defense, and a lot of clutch plays in the big moments (Nice work, Freddy).
1) Chad Gaudin is on his way back, but he's not there yet. He had flashes of great form--striking out Rios, Wells, and Thomas on identical great sliders was great to watch, but seeing Aaron Hill punt that same slider over the left field fence was bad. Wells took him yard too for 3 runs in the first as he struggled early. After the first few innings, he at least knew what he was doing. He looked like he threw his pitches in the appropriate counts, and his out-pitch slider was in command. He did throw a couple juicy ones, but thankfully AJ Burnett did the same.
SUPER BONUS SECTION: Man, AJ Burnett is one mean looking fellow. He reminds me of John Gruden, the coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and former coach of the Raiders. When Lyle Overbay (1st baseman for the Jays) took a putout unassisted instead of flipping it to Burnett, I thought someone's face was going to get bitten off. Remind me not to cross him.
2) The Rotation is going down...fast. Harden skipped a start and is now doubtful for Sunday. Duchscherer is on the 15 day disabled list. Greg Smith performed rather well today, and it's probably good enough to keep him in the Duke's spot for now. If Harden goes down, the A's will probably go with Dallas Braden or Lenny DiNardo to replace him. Braden has a bit more upside, and could use work getting his changeup working against Major League Hitters. DiNardo is a bit more established, but the A's are fearful of his second half, when the entire League figured him out and his ERA skyrocketed. I'm not too worried about Duke--he wasn't a key piece of the rotation and the A's have arms in AA that can at least provide a positive VORP alternative, but Harden worries me. The A's really need Harden to at least provide 25 starts to stand a chance, and this is pretty early to already be suffering stiffness.
3) The Bats are picking up, although its the same ones. Sweeney and Suzuki have looked outstanding lately, and I'm pleased with them as well as Mark Ellis. Travis Buck has remembered how to put em where they aint, and the recent trend of extra base hits puts me a bit more at ease. Jack Cust is still in a funk, and he's a key provider of pop in this lineup, but we can expect him to be a bit streaky as part of his nature.
4) The Bullpen excites me more and more with every day. Huston Street settled in, recording two no-home-run saves in a row. Foulke looks like he's returned to form, and will dual with Embree for a Righty/Lefty combo of setup men. Combining those three with Santiago Casilla and Andrew Brown whom I have full confidence in as well as Fernando Hernandez who looked solid today gives me a lot of confidence if our starters can give six quality innings.
On another note, the Giants have taken two dramatic games in a row, and Jonathan Sanchez was 7/13/77 of New York on the mound today. They're close, but these heart pounding games are the kind of wins that will be typical para Los Gigantes. If the Giants are going to win games consistently this season, it will be through good pitching, good defense, and a lot of clutch plays in the big moments (Nice work, Freddy).
Monday, April 7, 2008
The San Francisco Conundrum
The San Francisco have even more trouble on their hands than their 1-6 record would indicate. The Giants fans have made their allegiances clear--they were with Barry. Check out this excerpt from an article on the Giants website, as reported by Chris Haft.
"SAN FRANCISCO -- Opening Day is always a celebration, but the festive mood at AT&T Park began evaporating even before the Giants' 8-4 loss to the San Diego Padres began.
I've often talked among friends about the dualistic nature of San Francisco fans. There are Giants fans who are among the traditional encampments. First there is the die-hard fan, who will always support the team no matter what (even in the 90 loss seasons.) There's the Sports Geeky fans who know the team will be bad, but love Barry cause he's the king of On Base Percentage among other things. Yet San Francisco also has a very large encampment of Barry Fans. These people have grown up, or at least become so ingrained with the leadership of Barry Bonds that the sudden broadside of a team without him has thrown them into a state of shock. These fans are suddenly coming to grips with the fact that this lineup is very old, and hardly anybody in the farm system is superstar caliber (save Angel Villanova, but only the most knowledgeable fans know of the 18 year old High-A player.)
These aren't new facts though. A lot of people who follow the Giants have long pointed out the fact that the ownership hasn't made moves to win championships by improving weak points, or at least haven't made the right ones. The Barry Homers though have gleefully ignored this fact because of that glorious 2002 season when they won the pennant, and the fact that anything is possible if Barry is batting cleanup.
This team isn't the 2002 Giants though. This is a team so unprepared for injuries that, in light of injuries to Shortstop Omar Vizquel and utilityman Kevin Frandsen, their best option for Shortstop is Brian Bocock, who last year had a subpar (.220/.293/.328) year at High A ball. This is a team so oblivious to its inability to contend that it insists on starting Dave Roberts in Left Field instead of giving youngsters Rajai Davis, Fred Lewis, or Nate Schierholtz more opportunities to develop at the big league level.
Finally, this is a team so incognizant of the impact Barry had on them as a team and its fans that it has basically erased his image from their stadium (I could reference a ton of articles, but I'll go with this one) His image and any mention of his home run record are nowhere to be found. I understand that the team wants to turn over a new leaf per se, but the Giants' Front Office Brass doesn't seem to understand how they are alienating their fans by doing this. Not only do they give the fans a sub par team to face the season, but this move almost seems like a slap in the face. It's a proverbial "This is our team, deal with it. No Barry. Don't like it? We don't care."
Such blatant disregard for the opinions of fans is disconcerting. The fact of the matter is that profiting on a baseball team is ridiculously easy in business terms. Perhaps the Giants Front Office realizes this, and much like the Marlins run their operation, they don't particularly care if their team is poor and has no drawing power for a few years--people will still attend, if only to boo.
"SAN FRANCISCO -- Opening Day is always a celebration, but the festive mood at AT&T Park began evaporating even before the Giants' 8-4 loss to the San Diego Padres began.
Barry Zito, the Giants' $126 million pitcher who owns an 0-2 record with a 6.30 ERA, was booed during pregame introductions. The hooting resumed when third baseman Jose Castillo misplayed Scott Hairston's grounder during San Diego's three-run third inning, and surfaced intermittently while Padres right-hander Greg Maddux was retiring 19 of the final 20 hitters he faced. The catcalls rang out for the final time in the ninth inning as the Padres scored twice off Brian Wilson."
The San Francisco Faithful are clearly displeased with the Giants' 1-6 start against the Dodgers, Brewers, and now Padres. Receiving this kind of treatment in one's home opener is a terrible harbinger of things to come. This should be a very interesting season to examine in terms of how the fan base will react. This is their first season in a long time without Barry Bonds, and while this isn't the first time they've been abysmally poor, it is the first time they don't have Barry to fall back on to draw fans.I've often talked among friends about the dualistic nature of San Francisco fans. There are Giants fans who are among the traditional encampments. First there is the die-hard fan, who will always support the team no matter what (even in the 90 loss seasons.) There's the Sports Geeky fans who know the team will be bad, but love Barry cause he's the king of On Base Percentage among other things. Yet San Francisco also has a very large encampment of Barry Fans. These people have grown up, or at least become so ingrained with the leadership of Barry Bonds that the sudden broadside of a team without him has thrown them into a state of shock. These fans are suddenly coming to grips with the fact that this lineup is very old, and hardly anybody in the farm system is superstar caliber (save Angel Villanova, but only the most knowledgeable fans know of the 18 year old High-A player.)
These aren't new facts though. A lot of people who follow the Giants have long pointed out the fact that the ownership hasn't made moves to win championships by improving weak points, or at least haven't made the right ones. The Barry Homers though have gleefully ignored this fact because of that glorious 2002 season when they won the pennant, and the fact that anything is possible if Barry is batting cleanup.
This team isn't the 2002 Giants though. This is a team so unprepared for injuries that, in light of injuries to Shortstop Omar Vizquel and utilityman Kevin Frandsen, their best option for Shortstop is Brian Bocock, who last year had a subpar (.220/.293/.328) year at High A ball. This is a team so oblivious to its inability to contend that it insists on starting Dave Roberts in Left Field instead of giving youngsters Rajai Davis, Fred Lewis, or Nate Schierholtz more opportunities to develop at the big league level.
Finally, this is a team so incognizant of the impact Barry had on them as a team and its fans that it has basically erased his image from their stadium (I could reference a ton of articles, but I'll go with this one) His image and any mention of his home run record are nowhere to be found. I understand that the team wants to turn over a new leaf per se, but the Giants' Front Office Brass doesn't seem to understand how they are alienating their fans by doing this. Not only do they give the fans a sub par team to face the season, but this move almost seems like a slap in the face. It's a proverbial "This is our team, deal with it. No Barry. Don't like it? We don't care."
Such blatant disregard for the opinions of fans is disconcerting. The fact of the matter is that profiting on a baseball team is ridiculously easy in business terms. Perhaps the Giants Front Office realizes this, and much like the Marlins run their operation, they don't particularly care if their team is poor and has no drawing power for a few years--people will still attend, if only to boo.
Friday, April 4, 2008
Opening Impressions on the A's
Your Oakland Athletics have finally finished their opening series (plural?) with the Red Sox, with a 1-3 record. It's logical at this point to begin bracing one's self for a long year, but let's look at some of the big factors piece by piece.
1) Huston Street isn't at his top form yet. He's given up home runs in both appearances so far, and he really needs to come to grips with his slider. Street needs to be at his top form for both plans: If the A's are going to go for it on the off chance the Angels never recover from blows to their rotation, Street needs to be our go to man for the postseason. Likewise, if we are sticking with Codename: 2010, Street needs to keep his trade value up for Beane to net some good prospects for him and allow Joey Devine to move into the pen and get some big league work in. I'm not too worried here--Street has always had a pretty high blown save count. The A's will rely on him a lot this year though, with the offense being somewhat subpar, the games will be close.
2) I'm not sure what to make of the offense yet, but my gut isn't agreeing with my decision nonetheless. The team leaders right now in hitting are Kurt Suzuki, Bobby Crosby and Jack Hannahan. While I'm thrilled that the three of them are producing, I'm wondering where everybody else is. Buck mentioned in an article on the A's website said. "It's everything -- my whole body, from my feet to my head. But seeing and identifying the problem, that's a step in the right direction." That concerns me more than anything. I would hope these things would be worked out in Spring Training, but Buck had a good second half last year. Regardless, I'd like to see him and the others maintain some regularity in their hitting so as to facilitate Beane's aforementioned decision.
3) Rich Harden looks good. I can't say enough about how key this is to the whole process, and even though he's been limited in his innings (good move Geren,) I like what I see. Sports Illustrated's recent Baseball Preview toyed around with the idea of making Harden a Sunday Starter, but I think the depth of the bullpen is more suited to allowing Harden to stick to a low inning plan rather than a fewer starts plan. Let's keep our fingers crossed that this isn't the baseball gods toying with us.
4) The Angels look good, unfortunately. Other than the game against the Twins where they had trouble producing, they look really solid. Garland and Saunders were both lights out in their opening performances, and their offense has four members who out produce our best guy. It's intimidating to compare outfields with them, when their pinch runner (Reggie Willits) would be a automatic starter on the A's.
As I've stated before--it's going to be a hard April. The A's schedule is very rough (4 against the Red Sox, 6 against the Indians, etc.) and the A's are still trying to see what works with all of its cogs in new sprockets. Duchscherer is on the hill tonight, and I'm hoping that his wide array of breaking stuff will be able to keep guys off balance for a whole game. His fastball is only upper 80's, so their is the chance that guys will figure him out when they come around to their 3rd matchup. Considering the fact that he's being converted from a reliever and may have stamina issues, the 6th inning will be the most pivotal for him.
1) Huston Street isn't at his top form yet. He's given up home runs in both appearances so far, and he really needs to come to grips with his slider. Street needs to be at his top form for both plans: If the A's are going to go for it on the off chance the Angels never recover from blows to their rotation, Street needs to be our go to man for the postseason. Likewise, if we are sticking with Codename: 2010, Street needs to keep his trade value up for Beane to net some good prospects for him and allow Joey Devine to move into the pen and get some big league work in. I'm not too worried here--Street has always had a pretty high blown save count. The A's will rely on him a lot this year though, with the offense being somewhat subpar, the games will be close.
2) I'm not sure what to make of the offense yet, but my gut isn't agreeing with my decision nonetheless. The team leaders right now in hitting are Kurt Suzuki, Bobby Crosby and Jack Hannahan. While I'm thrilled that the three of them are producing, I'm wondering where everybody else is. Buck mentioned in an article on the A's website said. "It's everything -- my whole body, from my feet to my head. But seeing and identifying the problem, that's a step in the right direction." That concerns me more than anything. I would hope these things would be worked out in Spring Training, but Buck had a good second half last year. Regardless, I'd like to see him and the others maintain some regularity in their hitting so as to facilitate Beane's aforementioned decision.
3) Rich Harden looks good. I can't say enough about how key this is to the whole process, and even though he's been limited in his innings (good move Geren,) I like what I see. Sports Illustrated's recent Baseball Preview toyed around with the idea of making Harden a Sunday Starter, but I think the depth of the bullpen is more suited to allowing Harden to stick to a low inning plan rather than a fewer starts plan. Let's keep our fingers crossed that this isn't the baseball gods toying with us.
4) The Angels look good, unfortunately. Other than the game against the Twins where they had trouble producing, they look really solid. Garland and Saunders were both lights out in their opening performances, and their offense has four members who out produce our best guy. It's intimidating to compare outfields with them, when their pinch runner (Reggie Willits) would be a automatic starter on the A's.
As I've stated before--it's going to be a hard April. The A's schedule is very rough (4 against the Red Sox, 6 against the Indians, etc.) and the A's are still trying to see what works with all of its cogs in new sprockets. Duchscherer is on the hill tonight, and I'm hoping that his wide array of breaking stuff will be able to keep guys off balance for a whole game. His fastball is only upper 80's, so their is the chance that guys will figure him out when they come around to their 3rd matchup. Considering the fact that he's being converted from a reliever and may have stamina issues, the 6th inning will be the most pivotal for him.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
A's overhauls
So there was big news today that Billy Beane, having decided that the health of Eric Chavez was too much for this team, decided to do all it took to make this team ready to compete.:
1. He traded Joe Blanton to the Astros for Miguel Tejada.
2. He then made a phone call and traded Huston Street to the Yankees for Jason Giambi.
3. Putting the touches on a long standing deal, he dealt Rich Harden to the Orioles for Ramon Hernandez.
4. Gutting the Farm System, he sent Carlos Gonzalez, Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos, and Ryan Sweeney to the Giants for Barry Zito.
5. Mark Ellis was sent to the Cardinals for Jason Isringhausen.
6. Chad Gaudin, Justin Duchscherer, Emil Brown, and Cash Considerations were sent to the Braves for Tim Hudson.
7. Jack Cust was offered to the Yankees for Johnny Damon, who also wanted Kurt Suzuki, and the A's obliged.
8. Bobby Crosby, Mike Sweeney, Brooks Conrad, and Andrew Brown were sent to the ChiSox for Jermaine Dye.
9. Free Agents Jeremy Giambi and Terrence Long to 2 year deals.
10. After Bob Geren promptly stormed out in frustration, Art Howe was hired as the interim manager.
Beane was quoted as saying after the frenzy was done saying "Hey, let's face it, this is a weak division. I know what I'm doing here--I do it all the time. These signings will put us over the other teams in the league, and we will win baseball games."
When asked about how he will deal with the overwhelmingly large payroll boost he'll need to pay these players, Beane quipped "Well, we've been sort of saving money up over the years. People think we're a small market team, but it's sort of like saving up one's allowance for a Nintendo Wii. We haven't bought any big players for a while, so this is our proverbial Nintendo Wii."
The "Nintendo Wii" philosophy has drawn a lot of criticism among the community. Baseball Prospectus Joe Sheehan claimed that "This is exactly the kind of statistical know-how and surprise that makes Beane the best in the game. Whereas he used to win by putting value on undervalued guys, now he'll win by putting value on old men, who are now as undervalued as fat guys were in 2002."
Scouts are against it. Joe Morgan was quoted on his telecast last night as saying "Billy Beane wrote the book on idiocy. Moneyball? More like "Dummyball!" While I do like all of these old men and will continue to support them in all of my telecasts, Billy Beane's book is the single stupidest thing I haven't read."
Ironically, Micheal Lewis recently began work on his new book "Dummyball: The Art of Making Everyone else think they're Dumb in an Unfair Game," which is planned for release early next year after the A's win their inevitable World Series ring.
The Giambi brothers, after bumping heads and cheering upon seeing eachother in today's lineup, stated that "This is the greatest thing to happen to us since ster....ility. We sure do love sterility when being injected with completely legal B12 Vitamins to help our careers. Yup. Go A's."
It's the opinion of this blogger that Beane seems to have done it again--We're once again in a position to win the Championship thanks to Billy. Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go buy season tickets in the hopes that we'll have a payroll to keep these guys around for a few years while they play from the Geriatric Ward.
1. He traded Joe Blanton to the Astros for Miguel Tejada.
2. He then made a phone call and traded Huston Street to the Yankees for Jason Giambi.
3. Putting the touches on a long standing deal, he dealt Rich Harden to the Orioles for Ramon Hernandez.
4. Gutting the Farm System, he sent Carlos Gonzalez, Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos, and Ryan Sweeney to the Giants for Barry Zito.
5. Mark Ellis was sent to the Cardinals for Jason Isringhausen.
6. Chad Gaudin, Justin Duchscherer, Emil Brown, and Cash Considerations were sent to the Braves for Tim Hudson.
7. Jack Cust was offered to the Yankees for Johnny Damon, who also wanted Kurt Suzuki, and the A's obliged.
8. Bobby Crosby, Mike Sweeney, Brooks Conrad, and Andrew Brown were sent to the ChiSox for Jermaine Dye.
9. Free Agents Jeremy Giambi and Terrence Long to 2 year deals.
10. After Bob Geren promptly stormed out in frustration, Art Howe was hired as the interim manager.
Beane was quoted as saying after the frenzy was done saying "Hey, let's face it, this is a weak division. I know what I'm doing here--I do it all the time. These signings will put us over the other teams in the league, and we will win baseball games."
When asked about how he will deal with the overwhelmingly large payroll boost he'll need to pay these players, Beane quipped "Well, we've been sort of saving money up over the years. People think we're a small market team, but it's sort of like saving up one's allowance for a Nintendo Wii. We haven't bought any big players for a while, so this is our proverbial Nintendo Wii."
The "Nintendo Wii" philosophy has drawn a lot of criticism among the community. Baseball Prospectus Joe Sheehan claimed that "This is exactly the kind of statistical know-how and surprise that makes Beane the best in the game. Whereas he used to win by putting value on undervalued guys, now he'll win by putting value on old men, who are now as undervalued as fat guys were in 2002."
Scouts are against it. Joe Morgan was quoted on his telecast last night as saying "Billy Beane wrote the book on idiocy. Moneyball? More like "Dummyball!" While I do like all of these old men and will continue to support them in all of my telecasts, Billy Beane's book is the single stupidest thing I haven't read."
Ironically, Micheal Lewis recently began work on his new book "Dummyball: The Art of Making Everyone else think they're Dumb in an Unfair Game," which is planned for release early next year after the A's win their inevitable World Series ring.
The Giambi brothers, after bumping heads and cheering upon seeing eachother in today's lineup, stated that "This is the greatest thing to happen to us since ster....ility. We sure do love sterility when being injected with completely legal B12 Vitamins to help our careers. Yup. Go A's."
It's the opinion of this blogger that Beane seems to have done it again--We're once again in a position to win the Championship thanks to Billy. Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go buy season tickets in the hopes that we'll have a payroll to keep these guys around for a few years while they play from the Geriatric Ward.
Friday, March 28, 2008
The Crystal is a Big Foggy
So recently the Yahoo! sports team of experts put together their predictions for the upcoming year. You can read them at http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ys-standingspredictions032708&prov=yhoo&type=lgns and I suggest you do.
I agree with most of them. I think they underrate the Tigers even though their bullpen is bad, and their prediction of the AL West is...
Wait, what? The Mariners will win 87, 89, or 91 games? That's worth a second look. The Yahoo! experts seem to think that the Mariners, having won 88 games last year and adding Erik Bedard, will be just fine this year. I see a few things wrong with this:
1) I don't buy into the continued success of teams that allow more runs than they score. The Diamondbacks are an exception to this case, since another year benefits pretty much every single member of their young team. The Mariners though will lose something with a year. Richie Sexson, Raul Ibanez, and Ichiro Suzuki will most likely lose a step with a year, and Adrian Beltre is getting there too. The Pythagorean Win/Loss, which tells you what a team should have probably come out to as far as records, tells you whether a team got a bit lucky or not. The Mariners' 2007 Runs Scored: Runs Allowed was 794:813, giving them a Pythagorean record of 79-83. This tells us that they got a bit lucky. Their wins were close, and their losses were beatings.
2) In acquiring Erik Bedard, they gave up their potential #3 hitter in Adam Jones (and set-up man George Sherrill, but I'll let that slide for now). Jones is expected to be a superstar soon enough, and the Mariners desperately needed his offensive output. Jones is predicted by Baseball Prospectus to come out with a .274/334/440 line, with 23 home runs and 12 stolen bases, and a 23.5 VORP (Value over Replacement Player.) In his stead, the team is platooned by Brad Wilkerson (VORP of 4.8) and Wladamir Balentien (VORP of -.08 [yes thats negative.]) They added a great pitcher, while giving up a great hitter. It's good for the Mariners, but not overwhelmingly.
3) I found this little tidbit particularly interesting: "no team has two potentially better pitchers." I usually like Jeff Passan, but he's saying in this sentence that no team has two pitchers who have the potential to be better than Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez (Combined projected VORP of 75.7.) Off the top of my head, I came up with a few teams:
Mets: Johan Santana/Pedro Martinez (86.6)
Diamondbacks: Brandon Webb/Dan Haren (97.7)
Padres: Jake Peavy/Chris Young (73.8)
Indians: CC Sabathia/Fausto Carmona (81.0)
Rays: Scott Kazmir/James Shields (80.2)
Red Sox: Josh Beckett/Daisuke Matsuzaka (76.7)
Reds: Aaron Harang/Bronson Arroyo (70.6)
That's what I came up with on my own, and I left off the Dodgers, Brewers, Cubs, and Giants to keep things from getting too ridiculous. A lot of teams have two great pitchers, so this isn't unique to the fightin Mariners.
Don't believe it folks. I'm making a prediction here that the Mariners finish no more than three games above .500 at the end of the season, regardless of injuries.
I agree with most of them. I think they underrate the Tigers even though their bullpen is bad, and their prediction of the AL West is...
Wait, what? The Mariners will win 87, 89, or 91 games? That's worth a second look. The Yahoo! experts seem to think that the Mariners, having won 88 games last year and adding Erik Bedard, will be just fine this year. I see a few things wrong with this:
1) I don't buy into the continued success of teams that allow more runs than they score. The Diamondbacks are an exception to this case, since another year benefits pretty much every single member of their young team. The Mariners though will lose something with a year. Richie Sexson, Raul Ibanez, and Ichiro Suzuki will most likely lose a step with a year, and Adrian Beltre is getting there too. The Pythagorean Win/Loss, which tells you what a team should have probably come out to as far as records, tells you whether a team got a bit lucky or not. The Mariners' 2007 Runs Scored: Runs Allowed was 794:813, giving them a Pythagorean record of 79-83. This tells us that they got a bit lucky. Their wins were close, and their losses were beatings.
2) In acquiring Erik Bedard, they gave up their potential #3 hitter in Adam Jones (and set-up man George Sherrill, but I'll let that slide for now). Jones is expected to be a superstar soon enough, and the Mariners desperately needed his offensive output. Jones is predicted by Baseball Prospectus to come out with a .274/334/440 line, with 23 home runs and 12 stolen bases, and a 23.5 VORP (Value over Replacement Player.) In his stead, the team is platooned by Brad Wilkerson (VORP of 4.8) and Wladamir Balentien (VORP of -.08 [yes thats negative.]) They added a great pitcher, while giving up a great hitter. It's good for the Mariners, but not overwhelmingly.
3) I found this little tidbit particularly interesting: "no team has two potentially better pitchers." I usually like Jeff Passan, but he's saying in this sentence that no team has two pitchers who have the potential to be better than Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez (Combined projected VORP of 75.7.) Off the top of my head, I came up with a few teams:
Mets: Johan Santana/Pedro Martinez (86.6)
Diamondbacks: Brandon Webb/Dan Haren (97.7)
Padres: Jake Peavy/Chris Young (73.8)
Indians: CC Sabathia/Fausto Carmona (81.0)
Rays: Scott Kazmir/James Shields (80.2)
Red Sox: Josh Beckett/Daisuke Matsuzaka (76.7)
Reds: Aaron Harang/Bronson Arroyo (70.6)
That's what I came up with on my own, and I left off the Dodgers, Brewers, Cubs, and Giants to keep things from getting too ridiculous. A lot of teams have two great pitchers, so this isn't unique to the fightin Mariners.
Don't believe it folks. I'm making a prediction here that the Mariners finish no more than three games above .500 at the end of the season, regardless of injuries.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Musings on Spring Training
I took a short break while I took a vacation down to Arizona to visit family, watch some baseball, and celebrate the end of my winter quarter at school. I was able to catch a few non-A's games (since they were in Japan,) and here are my early reactions:
Giants: Are as bad as everyone says. Vizquel, Frandsen, and Durham are all fighting off injuries and may start the year on the Disabled List. The guys that are playing are doing so poorly. I saw Molina try to take 3rd from 1st on a single, and get thrown out badly. Randy Winn was picked like a booger sleeping at 1st. Lincecum looked ok, but the bullpen looked poor. It's going to take divine intervention to lift this team from an otherwise imminent 68 win season.
Rangers: Their pitching staff is terrible. Not just in the sense that they can't throw strikes that miss bats, but they're pretty poor fielders. I saw multiple errors in throwing, and on the aforementioned Winn pickoff, a hesitation that caused him to get back to 1st in an otherwise easy rundown. The Bats didn't have enough fire to carry the team, so it looks bad here too.
Dodgers: The young guys look good, the old guys look bad. Rafael Furcal was swinging for the fences and missing badly at changeups all over the place. Ethier, Loney, and Kemp all took their share of good at bats and hit the ball well. The bullpen looked a bit awkward, but I didn't get to see Saito or Broxton.
Royals: Looked surprisingly ok. Some are picking this team to beat out the Twins for not-last in the AL central, which would be an improvement. A lot of that rests on the starting rotation staying healthy, and their rotation looked ok. Unfortunately for my fantasy team, Joakim Soria didn't look ok. He wasn't hitting his spots, and barely survived his inning of middle relief work.
Rockies: An interesting mix, but disappointing overall. I saw Franklin Morales be lights out for 4 innings before blowing up in the 5th, and the bullpen didn't look good in relief. The lineup was dogging it in the game I saw--Matt Holliday hit a slow roller, expected it to go foul, and then was tagged out standing there when it didn't. It's hard to judge a lineup when they aren't trying.
White Sox: Looked better than I thought. If they get Brian Roberts, they could be a decent team. Probably not enough to compete with the Tigers and Indians, since they still have a terrible Starting Rotation.
On one last note, How 'bout them A's? I don't think many people had them picked to win either game, and they took one while barely blowing the other in extras. I like our chances if we can get that close to the defending World Series Champions in an unfamiliar park surrounded by mostly unsympathetic fans. Hopefully the crew can stay healthy and keep up this success.
Giants: Are as bad as everyone says. Vizquel, Frandsen, and Durham are all fighting off injuries and may start the year on the Disabled List. The guys that are playing are doing so poorly. I saw Molina try to take 3rd from 1st on a single, and get thrown out badly. Randy Winn was picked like a booger sleeping at 1st. Lincecum looked ok, but the bullpen looked poor. It's going to take divine intervention to lift this team from an otherwise imminent 68 win season.
Rangers: Their pitching staff is terrible. Not just in the sense that they can't throw strikes that miss bats, but they're pretty poor fielders. I saw multiple errors in throwing, and on the aforementioned Winn pickoff, a hesitation that caused him to get back to 1st in an otherwise easy rundown. The Bats didn't have enough fire to carry the team, so it looks bad here too.
Dodgers: The young guys look good, the old guys look bad. Rafael Furcal was swinging for the fences and missing badly at changeups all over the place. Ethier, Loney, and Kemp all took their share of good at bats and hit the ball well. The bullpen looked a bit awkward, but I didn't get to see Saito or Broxton.
Royals: Looked surprisingly ok. Some are picking this team to beat out the Twins for not-last in the AL central, which would be an improvement. A lot of that rests on the starting rotation staying healthy, and their rotation looked ok. Unfortunately for my fantasy team, Joakim Soria didn't look ok. He wasn't hitting his spots, and barely survived his inning of middle relief work.
Rockies: An interesting mix, but disappointing overall. I saw Franklin Morales be lights out for 4 innings before blowing up in the 5th, and the bullpen didn't look good in relief. The lineup was dogging it in the game I saw--Matt Holliday hit a slow roller, expected it to go foul, and then was tagged out standing there when it didn't. It's hard to judge a lineup when they aren't trying.
White Sox: Looked better than I thought. If they get Brian Roberts, they could be a decent team. Probably not enough to compete with the Tigers and Indians, since they still have a terrible Starting Rotation.
On one last note, How 'bout them A's? I don't think many people had them picked to win either game, and they took one while barely blowing the other in extras. I like our chances if we can get that close to the defending World Series Champions in an unfamiliar park surrounded by mostly unsympathetic fans. Hopefully the crew can stay healthy and keep up this success.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Spring Training Update 2
To start things off, let's do a quick roster check. The A's let Joey Devine go from their active roster. That leaves 35 men on. These 35 are:
C Kurt Suzuki
1B Daric Barton
2B Mark Ellis
SS Bobby Crosby
3B Jack Hannahan
RF Travis Buck
CF Ryan Sweeney
LF Emil Brown
DH Jack Cust
BN Mike Sweeney
BN Dan Johnson
BN Donnie Murphy
BN Jeff Fiorentino
BN Rob Bowen
SP Joe Blanton
SP Rich Harden
SP Justin Duchscherer
SP Dana Eveland
CL Huston Street
SU Alan Embree
LR Lenny DiNardo
RP Santiago Casilla
RP Andrew Brown
RP Keith Foulke
RP Fernando Hernandez
RP Dallas Braden
2B Brooks Conrad
IF Gregorio Petit
OF Chris Denorfia
C Justin Knoedler
3B Eric Chavez
SP Chad Gaudin
RP Kiko Calero
OF Carlos Gonzalez
OF Todd Linden
The top is my original list, -Dan Meyer and Chad Gaudin, but +Fernando Hernandez and Jeff Fiorentino. Hernandez was a Rule 5 Draft pick. For those not in the know, every year the MLB teams have a draft of players stuck in the minors to give them a shot on another team. If a player was drafted when he was 18 or younger, and has been in the minors for 5 years, he can be rule 5 drafted. If the player was drafted over 18, and has been in for 4 years, he also is eligible. It's to allow talented players who are stuck behind superstars to get their chance. Johan Santana, Roberto Clemente, and George Bell are among a few high profile names given a shot by this procedure. Anyways, one of the rules is that if you draft a rule 5 guy, he must remain on your major league roster all year. Fernando Hernandez was given this shot, so he'll open the year at least on the roster. Jay Marshall was this guy last year, if you ever wondered why he went straight from AA to the majors.
The 2nd column are guys on the Japan Roster, which can go up to 30 people. These guys will go to Japan, but probably not make the Opening day 25 man roster.
The 3rd column are guys who are still in Major League Camp, but won't make the trip to Japan. The first three in that list are nursing injuries, and need to hang with the doctors to make sure they can get back to shape when the team needs them back in the States. They will probably take the places of Jeff Fiorentino, Lenny DiNardo, and Dan Johnson when they're needed, though those spots are certainly up for grabs depending on what is needed at the time or who is or isn't doing well.
Carlos Gonzalez is still in camp, but also nursing an injury. I don't think he'll make the majors out of camp though, since I imagine the A's will want to take him slow and let him get a little more AAA work at CF before he comes up. Todd Linden is in camp, uninjured, but has been told he won't make the opening day roster. He called in sick today to his game, take that as you will.
After looking at the schedule, I advise A's fans not to get discouraged if the A's start off on a losing track. They begin with four games against he defending World Series Champion Red Sox, three games against the ALCS contending Cleveland Indians, and the underrated-ly strong Blue Jays. While the A's get their new roster on its feet, it's gonna be a rough April.
The A's will play four games in Japan. Two of them are exhibitions, which will be started by Dana Eveland and Justin Duchscherer, against the Yomiuri Giants and the Hanshin Tigers respectively. Unfortunately it will be a duel of my favorite MLB team vs. my favorite NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) in the second game, but I think this will be the one time in my life I'll have to choose sides (Go A's!) After those, the A's will face off against the Red Sox for the first two games of the regular season in Tokyo. Joe Blanton will take on Daisuke Matsuzaka in the first, and Rich Harden will face Tim Wakefield in the second. Josh Beckett is injured, and Curt Schilling will be out a good while, so it'll be interesting to see how these matchups shake up.
The A's are on their planes as I write this I believe, so you can keep up on the action at http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/mlb/events/opening_series/y2008/index.jsp and I'll try to keep tabs on what's going on.
C Kurt Suzuki
1B Daric Barton
2B Mark Ellis
SS Bobby Crosby
3B Jack Hannahan
RF Travis Buck
CF Ryan Sweeney
LF Emil Brown
DH Jack Cust
BN Mike Sweeney
BN Dan Johnson
BN Donnie Murphy
BN Jeff Fiorentino
BN Rob Bowen
SP Joe Blanton
SP Rich Harden
SP Justin Duchscherer
SP Dana Eveland
CL Huston Street
SU Alan Embree
LR Lenny DiNardo
RP Santiago Casilla
RP Andrew Brown
RP Keith Foulke
RP Fernando Hernandez
RP Dallas Braden
2B Brooks Conrad
IF Gregorio Petit
OF Chris Denorfia
C Justin Knoedler
3B Eric Chavez
SP Chad Gaudin
RP Kiko Calero
OF Carlos Gonzalez
OF Todd Linden
The top is my original list, -Dan Meyer and Chad Gaudin, but +Fernando Hernandez and Jeff Fiorentino. Hernandez was a Rule 5 Draft pick. For those not in the know, every year the MLB teams have a draft of players stuck in the minors to give them a shot on another team. If a player was drafted when he was 18 or younger, and has been in the minors for 5 years, he can be rule 5 drafted. If the player was drafted over 18, and has been in for 4 years, he also is eligible. It's to allow talented players who are stuck behind superstars to get their chance. Johan Santana, Roberto Clemente, and George Bell are among a few high profile names given a shot by this procedure. Anyways, one of the rules is that if you draft a rule 5 guy, he must remain on your major league roster all year. Fernando Hernandez was given this shot, so he'll open the year at least on the roster. Jay Marshall was this guy last year, if you ever wondered why he went straight from AA to the majors.
The 2nd column are guys on the Japan Roster, which can go up to 30 people. These guys will go to Japan, but probably not make the Opening day 25 man roster.
The 3rd column are guys who are still in Major League Camp, but won't make the trip to Japan. The first three in that list are nursing injuries, and need to hang with the doctors to make sure they can get back to shape when the team needs them back in the States. They will probably take the places of Jeff Fiorentino, Lenny DiNardo, and Dan Johnson when they're needed, though those spots are certainly up for grabs depending on what is needed at the time or who is or isn't doing well.
Carlos Gonzalez is still in camp, but also nursing an injury. I don't think he'll make the majors out of camp though, since I imagine the A's will want to take him slow and let him get a little more AAA work at CF before he comes up. Todd Linden is in camp, uninjured, but has been told he won't make the opening day roster. He called in sick today to his game, take that as you will.
After looking at the schedule, I advise A's fans not to get discouraged if the A's start off on a losing track. They begin with four games against he defending World Series Champion Red Sox, three games against the ALCS contending Cleveland Indians, and the underrated-ly strong Blue Jays. While the A's get their new roster on its feet, it's gonna be a rough April.
The A's will play four games in Japan. Two of them are exhibitions, which will be started by Dana Eveland and Justin Duchscherer, against the Yomiuri Giants and the Hanshin Tigers respectively. Unfortunately it will be a duel of my favorite MLB team vs. my favorite NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) in the second game, but I think this will be the one time in my life I'll have to choose sides (Go A's!) After those, the A's will face off against the Red Sox for the first two games of the regular season in Tokyo. Joe Blanton will take on Daisuke Matsuzaka in the first, and Rich Harden will face Tim Wakefield in the second. Josh Beckett is injured, and Curt Schilling will be out a good while, so it'll be interesting to see how these matchups shake up.
The A's are on their planes as I write this I believe, so you can keep up on the action at http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/mlb/events/opening_series/y2008/index.jsp and I'll try to keep tabs on what's going on.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Special Bonus Section: Bonds and the Union?
There's something fishy afoot. A quick googling of "Bonds Players Union" will bring up a thousand articles similar to http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-union-bonds&prov=ap&type=lgns which says that Donald Fehr and the rest of the player's union will investigate the lack of offers to Bonds. Perhaps there's something fishy going on with the owners not wanting to sign Bonds. But that's not what I found confusing.
What strikes me is this: Bonds isn't in the players' union, or rather that he wouldn't agree to their licensing agreement. Even his Wikipedia page can tell you that he withdrew from the union's licensing in order to try to obtain more lucrative licensing deals. Video games, card games, and other such fantasies over the last few years have been forced to create placeholder images of Bonds because the Players Union doesn't have the right to use his image or name.
So why is the Players' Union suddenly sticking up for Bonds, who publicly rejected them? Are they trying to woo him back into their midst? Are they hoping to make a statement to the MLB that they can't treat players with a conspiracy and hope to get away with it? Or am I just a huge idiot and missed Bonds coming crawling back to the union?
What strikes me is this: Bonds isn't in the players' union, or rather that he wouldn't agree to their licensing agreement. Even his Wikipedia page can tell you that he withdrew from the union's licensing in order to try to obtain more lucrative licensing deals. Video games, card games, and other such fantasies over the last few years have been forced to create placeholder images of Bonds because the Players Union doesn't have the right to use his image or name.
So why is the Players' Union suddenly sticking up for Bonds, who publicly rejected them? Are they trying to woo him back into their midst? Are they hoping to make a statement to the MLB that they can't treat players with a conspiracy and hope to get away with it? Or am I just a huge idiot and missed Bonds coming crawling back to the union?
Monday, March 17, 2008
Spring Training Update
Somewhere amidst the red tags and inflated stats that come with Spring Training, some semblance of a team can be found. This challenge is even more so apparent this year for the only green team left in the league. Bob Geren and Billy Beane have to tackle a few big issues.
1) With Lackey gone, are we contenders? John Lackey is out until mid May with the first real injury of his professional career. My earlier predictions had the Angels way out in front, like they were last year. The A's had a chance (albeit a very slim one) if a lot of things went right for the A's, and none of them assumed the steadfast Lackey would get injured. With his injury taking a month out of him and possibly limiting his effectiveness this year, it very well may change things. The A's will probably start working Future StarGregg Jeffries Carlos Gonzalez in Center Field in AAA, and Gio Gonzalez as a starter in Sac-Town as well. When the All Star Break comes around, if we are in fact contenders, then the additions of these two plus another bat (Lastings Milledge from the Nationals anyone?) could make for an exciting September.
2) Whats going on in the Outfield? So far the Chris Denorfia experiment hasn't been working out. While guys like Ichiro and Jimmy Rollins can have awful Springs and not worry about their jobs, Denorfia doesn't have that luxury. The A's have been working Ryan Sweeney in Centerfield, and he's looking good. He's providing an adequate bat with defense that isn't a liability, which is what the A's need. Immediately after I finished my draft of this, Linden was told he wouldn't be making the roster despite his .577 Spring Batting Average. His performance screams playability, and I was ready to name him my pick for Left Field over Emil Brown and Denorfia, but Geren must see something that the stats don't show. It looks more like Sweeney will start in Center, Brown will start in Left, Buck in Right, and Denorfia will play backup. Any fifth outfielding will be done by Jack Cust, since it looks like the A's are committed to carrying Mike Sweeney in addition to Dan Johnson.
3) What to do with Eric Chavez? He's out and hurting for the moment. He's not coming to Japan it looks like, despite the fact that he wants to DH for the games out there. The A's just don't need another Designated Hitter, so Chavez has to be ready to fight off the more reliable Jack Hannahan, who also has been having a good Spring.
Here's my current pick for the Opening Day Roster:
C Kurt Suzuki
1B Daric Barton
2B Mark Ellis
SS Bobby Crosby
3B Jack Hannahan
RF Travis Buck
CF Ryan Sweeney
LF Emil Brown
DH Jack Cust
BN Mike Sweeney
BN Dan Johnson
BN Donnie Murphy
BN Rob Bowen
SP Joe Blanton
SP Rich Harden
SP Justin Duchscherer
SP Chad Gaudin
SP Dana Eveland
CL Huston Street
SU Alan Embree
LR Lenny DiNardo
RP Santiago Casilla
RP Andrew Brown
RP Keith Foulke
RP Dan Meyer
Eric Chavez and Kiko Calero won't be on due to injury issues, but will take the places of Johnson and Meyer when their time comes. Chad Gaudin won't have to be used until April 15th, and should be healthy enough to pitch when they need him.
1) With Lackey gone, are we contenders? John Lackey is out until mid May with the first real injury of his professional career. My earlier predictions had the Angels way out in front, like they were last year. The A's had a chance (albeit a very slim one) if a lot of things went right for the A's, and none of them assumed the steadfast Lackey would get injured. With his injury taking a month out of him and possibly limiting his effectiveness this year, it very well may change things. The A's will probably start working Future Star
2) Whats going on in the Outfield? So far the Chris Denorfia experiment hasn't been working out. While guys like Ichiro and Jimmy Rollins can have awful Springs and not worry about their jobs, Denorfia doesn't have that luxury. The A's have been working Ryan Sweeney in Centerfield, and he's looking good. He's providing an adequate bat with defense that isn't a liability, which is what the A's need. Immediately after I finished my draft of this, Linden was told he wouldn't be making the roster despite his .577 Spring Batting Average. His performance screams playability, and I was ready to name him my pick for Left Field over Emil Brown and Denorfia, but Geren must see something that the stats don't show. It looks more like Sweeney will start in Center, Brown will start in Left, Buck in Right, and Denorfia will play backup. Any fifth outfielding will be done by Jack Cust, since it looks like the A's are committed to carrying Mike Sweeney in addition to Dan Johnson.
3) What to do with Eric Chavez? He's out and hurting for the moment. He's not coming to Japan it looks like, despite the fact that he wants to DH for the games out there. The A's just don't need another Designated Hitter, so Chavez has to be ready to fight off the more reliable Jack Hannahan, who also has been having a good Spring.
Here's my current pick for the Opening Day Roster:
C Kurt Suzuki
1B Daric Barton
2B Mark Ellis
SS Bobby Crosby
3B Jack Hannahan
RF Travis Buck
CF Ryan Sweeney
LF Emil Brown
DH Jack Cust
BN Mike Sweeney
BN Dan Johnson
BN Donnie Murphy
BN Rob Bowen
SP Joe Blanton
SP Rich Harden
SP Justin Duchscherer
SP Chad Gaudin
SP Dana Eveland
CL Huston Street
SU Alan Embree
LR Lenny DiNardo
RP Santiago Casilla
RP Andrew Brown
RP Keith Foulke
RP Dan Meyer
Eric Chavez and Kiko Calero won't be on due to injury issues, but will take the places of Johnson and Meyer when their time comes. Chad Gaudin won't have to be used until April 15th, and should be healthy enough to pitch when they need him.
Friday, March 14, 2008
Nate Schierholtz's Clear Qualifications may not be Enough
According to this Nate Schierholtz is unsure of his chances for making the Giants' roster. The Giants are ready to let Dave Roberts take the majority of the playing time, and Schierholtz has to fight for a backup position against Fred Lewis and Rajai Davis. This whole debacle seems very silly to me.
All people have talked about is how the Giants need another power hitter. Rowand was a good signing, but right now the Giants are expected to bat him cleanup, and have Randy Winn/Ray Durham work around him. The Giants at the moment have three of the same guy in the outfield though. Dave Roberts is the old version, and Raj/Lewis are the 27 year old version. They've got a lot of speed but not much power (Lewis is better than Davis in this category at least.) They have all these speedsters who can get on base and steal second, but they need more RBI guys to hit them in.
This is where Schierholtz comes in. At 24, Baseball Prospectus still predicts he would rack up fifteen home runs with less than 600 plate appearances, with having the potential for twenty. This may not seem like a lot, but Pacific Bell Park is very pitcher friendly, and Winn is only predicted to get ten himself. With Schierholtz batting fifth and playing left, the Giants have a much better chance of hitting Roberts, Vizquel, and such home.
If there's any defense for the Giants action, it's that Schierholtz needs more work fixing his atrocious BB/K rate. He has potential to strike out nearly 100 times in a season with only 35 or so walks. This could definitely use work, but the Giants need his power. Outside of Angel Villanova, who was drafted last year and is still at least a couple years away, Schierholtz is really the only big bat that's coming up in the system. He needs major league experience and to get settled into a role so he can become comfortable in San Francisco.
All people have talked about is how the Giants need another power hitter. Rowand was a good signing, but right now the Giants are expected to bat him cleanup, and have Randy Winn/Ray Durham work around him. The Giants at the moment have three of the same guy in the outfield though. Dave Roberts is the old version, and Raj/Lewis are the 27 year old version. They've got a lot of speed but not much power (Lewis is better than Davis in this category at least.) They have all these speedsters who can get on base and steal second, but they need more RBI guys to hit them in.
This is where Schierholtz comes in. At 24, Baseball Prospectus still predicts he would rack up fifteen home runs with less than 600 plate appearances, with having the potential for twenty. This may not seem like a lot, but Pacific Bell Park is very pitcher friendly, and Winn is only predicted to get ten himself. With Schierholtz batting fifth and playing left, the Giants have a much better chance of hitting Roberts, Vizquel, and such home.
If there's any defense for the Giants action, it's that Schierholtz needs more work fixing his atrocious BB/K rate. He has potential to strike out nearly 100 times in a season with only 35 or so walks. This could definitely use work, but the Giants need his power. Outside of Angel Villanova, who was drafted last year and is still at least a couple years away, Schierholtz is really the only big bat that's coming up in the system. He needs major league experience and to get settled into a role so he can become comfortable in San Francisco.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
The Franchise is in Trouble
Francisco Liriano, nicknamed "The Franchise" by Twins fans, is back on the mound after having Tommy John Surgery in 2007. You may remember him from his astounding 2006 campaign, complete with two AL Rookie of the Month honors, an All star appearance, and a 2.16 ERA. He's known for his slider which breaks like the 1929 stock market, plus fastball and plus changeup. He was acquired from the Giants in one of the most one sided trades since the Louisiana Purchase, and Twins fans are hoping he will take over Ace duties from Johan Santana.
Liriano had to undergo surgery to repair an arm lost for the final two months of 2006. This was caused by a throwing motion characterized as "violent"by pitching coach Rich Anderson, putting an obscene amount of strain on the young man's arm. Liriano's slider relied on this General Sherman ruthless throwing motion to generate the heat and break on his slider, and part of his recovery involves pulling some his proverbial punches.
This is bad for Twins fans in the short term. Liriano is having his slider limited by his coaching staff and his own fear. Liriano himself doesn't want to become a Mark Prior-esque "What if" case, so he'll be holding back on that motion. By taking the punch out of his best pitch, he'll never become Johan. Johan's main pitch is his Harry Houdini changeup, which comes in around 80 despite looking identical to his high 90s fastball. The changeup doesn't put that strain on his arm, so he doesn't have to worry about his arm falling off like Liriano.
Now, Lirano is still talented. At this point he's still a young guy with three above average pitches as opposed to two above average pitches and one phenomenal pitch. This change will give Liriano more consistency and longevity at the expense of effectiveness. This is in line with the route the Twins have chosen to take. They need Liriano to be there a few years down the road when they make a run for it. The rest of the division will falter in a few years--when the Tigers non-Cabrera hitting core hit old man ages, the Indians big names leave for more profitable waters, and the White Sox sluggers will become old and useless. The Twins will be back, and they need to insure Liriano will be ready when this time comes.
Liriano had to undergo surgery to repair an arm lost for the final two months of 2006. This was caused by a throwing motion characterized as "violent"by pitching coach Rich Anderson, putting an obscene amount of strain on the young man's arm. Liriano's slider relied on this General Sherman ruthless throwing motion to generate the heat and break on his slider, and part of his recovery involves pulling some his proverbial punches.
This is bad for Twins fans in the short term. Liriano is having his slider limited by his coaching staff and his own fear. Liriano himself doesn't want to become a Mark Prior-esque "What if" case, so he'll be holding back on that motion. By taking the punch out of his best pitch, he'll never become Johan. Johan's main pitch is his Harry Houdini changeup, which comes in around 80 despite looking identical to his high 90s fastball. The changeup doesn't put that strain on his arm, so he doesn't have to worry about his arm falling off like Liriano.
Now, Lirano is still talented. At this point he's still a young guy with three above average pitches as opposed to two above average pitches and one phenomenal pitch. This change will give Liriano more consistency and longevity at the expense of effectiveness. This is in line with the route the Twins have chosen to take. They need Liriano to be there a few years down the road when they make a run for it. The rest of the division will falter in a few years--when the Tigers non-Cabrera hitting core hit old man ages, the Indians big names leave for more profitable waters, and the White Sox sluggers will become old and useless. The Twins will be back, and they need to insure Liriano will be ready when this time comes.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Todd Linden is Ready to Ball...Apparently
So I stumbled across this yesterday: http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080309&content_id=2415184&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=oak
Apparently Todd Linden is frustrated that he's not being prepped for starting duties with his Minor League contract. This whole situation took me off guard. I consider myself a pretty astute fan, and I completely missed his signing. What makes Linden so sure of himself? He was once a first round draft pick with tons of potential. His first year in 2002 was awesome, but he's never quite put it together at the big league level. He's spent most of his days playing second fiddle to Barry Bonds, and perhaps this has given him a false sense of ability. Something like "the only reason I'm not playing is because Barry is in front of me." A valid point, really.
What's stopping him is the fact that the A's outfield is either mostly the same, or as good as him. Travis Buck in Right Field seems better. Buck in his first season posted a 288/377/474 line, whereas Linden has never beaten 273/356/455 line, which he did in 2006 for 61 games. I don't trust him in Centerfield, where in 106 innings in 2007, he posted a poor .946 Fielding percentage, and a Range factor if 1.00 (compared to the 1.55 average.) In Left Field, he's being supplanted by Ryan Sweeney and Emil Brown. Brown is an established Major Leaguer--a mediocre one, but still a veteran. Ryan Sweeney is basically the same guy--a once highly touted prospect (for the White Sox) who has never quite put it together. Sweeney is left handed, and much better against Right Handed Pitchers, better suiting him for the platoon role. Linden is a switch hitter, and not particularly better against either side.
It makes me wonder about the mindset of some Professional sports players. These guys go their whole lives dreaming of the day where they finally make it and prove to the world their talent. I guess he figured "Hey, this is the worst outfield in the league, I gotta make it for sure!" It's somewhat arrogant, but he does have a point. I still don't see him making the spot right out of spring. He's 28 now, and Baseball Prospectus predicts he'll be out of baseball in four years.
What do we do with all the Todd Lindens of the world then? Unfortunately, this is just one of the sad byproducts of the system. Unless one finally has a Jack Cust year where they do piece it together and break out, they're left as 30 somethings in the world labeled has "Never Was's." Let's hope for the sake of goodness in the world that Linden bats .350 this year.
Apparently Todd Linden is frustrated that he's not being prepped for starting duties with his Minor League contract. This whole situation took me off guard. I consider myself a pretty astute fan, and I completely missed his signing. What makes Linden so sure of himself? He was once a first round draft pick with tons of potential. His first year in 2002 was awesome, but he's never quite put it together at the big league level. He's spent most of his days playing second fiddle to Barry Bonds, and perhaps this has given him a false sense of ability. Something like "the only reason I'm not playing is because Barry is in front of me." A valid point, really.
What's stopping him is the fact that the A's outfield is either mostly the same, or as good as him. Travis Buck in Right Field seems better. Buck in his first season posted a 288/377/474 line, whereas Linden has never beaten 273/356/455 line, which he did in 2006 for 61 games. I don't trust him in Centerfield, where in 106 innings in 2007, he posted a poor .946 Fielding percentage, and a Range factor if 1.00 (compared to the 1.55 average.) In Left Field, he's being supplanted by Ryan Sweeney and Emil Brown. Brown is an established Major Leaguer--a mediocre one, but still a veteran. Ryan Sweeney is basically the same guy--a once highly touted prospect (for the White Sox) who has never quite put it together. Sweeney is left handed, and much better against Right Handed Pitchers, better suiting him for the platoon role. Linden is a switch hitter, and not particularly better against either side.
It makes me wonder about the mindset of some Professional sports players. These guys go their whole lives dreaming of the day where they finally make it and prove to the world their talent. I guess he figured "Hey, this is the worst outfield in the league, I gotta make it for sure!" It's somewhat arrogant, but he does have a point. I still don't see him making the spot right out of spring. He's 28 now, and Baseball Prospectus predicts he'll be out of baseball in four years.
What do we do with all the Todd Lindens of the world then? Unfortunately, this is just one of the sad byproducts of the system. Unless one finally has a Jack Cust year where they do piece it together and break out, they're left as 30 somethings in the world labeled has "Never Was's." Let's hope for the sake of goodness in the world that Linden bats .350 this year.
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