The Crystal is a Big Foggy

So recently the Yahoo! sports team of experts put together their predictions for the upcoming year. You can read them at http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ys-standingspredictions032708&prov=yhoo&type=lgns and I suggest you do.

I agree with most of them. I think they underrate the Tigers even though their bullpen is bad, and their prediction of the AL West is...

Wait, what? The Mariners will win 87, 89, or 91 games? That's worth a second look. The Yahoo! experts seem to think that the Mariners, having won 88 games last year and adding Erik Bedard, will be just fine this year. I see a few things wrong with this:

1) I don't buy into the continued success of teams that allow more runs than they score. The Diamondbacks are an exception to this case, since another year benefits pretty much every single member of their young team. The Mariners though will lose something with a year. Richie Sexson, Raul Ibanez, and Ichiro Suzuki will most likely lose a step with a year, and Adrian Beltre is getting there too. The Pythagorean Win/Loss, which tells you what a team should have probably come out to as far as records, tells you whether a team got a bit lucky or not. The Mariners' 2007 Runs Scored: Runs Allowed was 794:813, giving them a Pythagorean record of 79-83. This tells us that they got a bit lucky. Their wins were close, and their losses were beatings.

2) In acquiring Erik Bedard, they gave up their potential #3 hitter in Adam Jones (and set-up man George Sherrill, but I'll let that slide for now). Jones is expected to be a superstar soon enough, and the Mariners desperately needed his offensive output. Jones is predicted by Baseball Prospectus to come out with a .274/334/440 line, with 23 home runs and 12 stolen bases, and a 23.5 VORP (Value over Replacement Player.) In his stead, the team is platooned by Brad Wilkerson (VORP of 4.8) and Wladamir Balentien (VORP of -.08 [yes thats negative.]) They added a great pitcher, while giving up a great hitter. It's good for the Mariners, but not overwhelmingly.

3) I found this little tidbit particularly interesting: "no team has two potentially better pitchers." I usually like Jeff Passan, but he's saying in this sentence that no team has two pitchers who have the potential to be better than Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez (Combined projected VORP of 75.7.) Off the top of my head, I came up with a few teams:
Mets: Johan Santana/Pedro Martinez (86.6)
Diamondbacks: Brandon Webb/Dan Haren (97.7)
Padres: Jake Peavy/Chris Young (73.8)
Indians: CC Sabathia/Fausto Carmona (81.0)
Rays: Scott Kazmir/James Shields (80.2)
Red Sox: Josh Beckett/Daisuke Matsuzaka (76.7)
Reds: Aaron Harang/Bronson Arroyo (70.6)
That's what I came up with on my own, and I left off the Dodgers, Brewers, Cubs, and Giants to keep things from getting too ridiculous. A lot of teams have two great pitchers, so this isn't unique to the fightin Mariners.

Don't believe it folks. I'm making a prediction here that the Mariners finish no more than three games above .500 at the end of the season, regardless of injuries.

Oh yeah

I also met this fine Hall of Famer:












Nice guy, that Rollie Fingers.

Musings on Spring Training

I took a short break while I took a vacation down to Arizona to visit family, watch some baseball, and celebrate the end of my winter quarter at school. I was able to catch a few non-A's games (since they were in Japan,) and here are my early reactions:

Giants: Are as bad as everyone says. Vizquel, Frandsen, and Durham are all fighting off injuries and may start the year on the Disabled List. The guys that are playing are doing so poorly. I saw Molina try to take 3rd from 1st on a single, and get thrown out badly. Randy Winn was picked like a booger sleeping at 1st. Lincecum looked ok, but the bullpen looked poor. It's going to take divine intervention to lift this team from an otherwise imminent 68 win season.

Rangers: Their pitching staff is terrible. Not just in the sense that they can't throw strikes that miss bats, but they're pretty poor fielders. I saw multiple errors in throwing, and on the aforementioned Winn pickoff, a hesitation that caused him to get back to 1st in an otherwise easy rundown. The Bats didn't have enough fire to carry the team, so it looks bad here too.

Dodgers: The young guys look good, the old guys look bad. Rafael Furcal was swinging for the fences and missing badly at changeups all over the place. Ethier, Loney, and Kemp all took their share of good at bats and hit the ball well. The bullpen looked a bit awkward, but I didn't get to see Saito or Broxton.

Royals: Looked surprisingly ok. Some are picking this team to beat out the Twins for not-last in the AL central, which would be an improvement. A lot of that rests on the starting rotation staying healthy, and their rotation looked ok. Unfortunately for my fantasy team, Joakim Soria didn't look ok. He wasn't hitting his spots, and barely survived his inning of middle relief work.

Rockies: An interesting mix, but disappointing overall. I saw Franklin Morales be lights out for 4 innings before blowing up in the 5th, and the bullpen didn't look good in relief. The lineup was dogging it in the game I saw--Matt Holliday hit a slow roller, expected it to go foul, and then was tagged out standing there when it didn't. It's hard to judge a lineup when they aren't trying.

White Sox: Looked better than I thought. If they get Brian Roberts, they could be a decent team. Probably not enough to compete with the Tigers and Indians, since they still have a terrible Starting Rotation.

On one last note, How 'bout them A's? I don't think many people had them picked to win either game, and they took one while barely blowing the other in extras. I like our chances if we can get that close to the defending World Series Champions in an unfamiliar park surrounded by mostly unsympathetic fans. Hopefully the crew can stay healthy and keep up this success.

Spring Training Update 2

To start things off, let's do a quick roster check. The A's let Joey Devine go from their active roster. That leaves 35 men on. These 35 are:

C Kurt Suzuki
1B Daric Barton
2B Mark Ellis
SS Bobby Crosby
3B Jack Hannahan
RF Travis Buck
CF Ryan Sweeney
LF Emil Brown
DH Jack Cust
BN Mike Sweeney
BN Dan Johnson
BN Donnie Murphy
BN Jeff Fiorentino
BN Rob Bowen
SP Joe Blanton
SP Rich Harden
SP Justin Duchscherer
SP Dana Eveland
CL Huston Street
SU Alan Embree
LR Lenny DiNardo
RP Santiago Casilla
RP Andrew Brown
RP Keith Foulke
RP Fernando Hernandez

RP Dallas Braden
2B Brooks Conrad
IF Gregorio Petit
OF Chris Denorfia
C Justin Knoedler

3B Eric Chavez
SP Chad Gaudin
RP Kiko Calero
OF Carlos Gonzalez
OF Todd Linden

The top is my original list, -Dan Meyer and Chad Gaudin, but +Fernando Hernandez and Jeff Fiorentino. Hernandez was a Rule 5 Draft pick. For those not in the know, every year the MLB teams have a draft of players stuck in the minors to give them a shot on another team. If a player was drafted when he was 18 or younger, and has been in the minors for 5 years, he can be rule 5 drafted. If the player was drafted over 18, and has been in for 4 years, he also is eligible. It's to allow talented players who are stuck behind superstars to get their chance. Johan Santana, Roberto Clemente, and George Bell are among a few high profile names given a shot by this procedure. Anyways, one of the rules is that if you draft a rule 5 guy, he must remain on your major league roster all year. Fernando Hernandez was given this shot, so he'll open the year at least on the roster. Jay Marshall was this guy last year, if you ever wondered why he went straight from AA to the majors.

The 2nd column are guys on the Japan Roster, which can go up to 30 people. These guys will go to Japan, but probably not make the Opening day 25 man roster.

The 3rd column are guys who are still in Major League Camp, but won't make the trip to Japan. The first three in that list are nursing injuries, and need to hang with the doctors to make sure they can get back to shape when the team needs them back in the States. They will probably take the places of Jeff Fiorentino, Lenny DiNardo, and Dan Johnson when they're needed, though those spots are certainly up for grabs depending on what is needed at the time or who is or isn't doing well.

Carlos Gonzalez is still in camp, but also nursing an injury. I don't think he'll make the majors out of camp though, since I imagine the A's will want to take him slow and let him get a little more AAA work at CF before he comes up. Todd Linden is in camp, uninjured, but has been told he won't make the opening day roster. He called in sick today to his game, take that as you will.

After looking at the schedule, I advise A's fans not to get discouraged if the A's start off on a losing track. They begin with four games against he defending World Series Champion Red Sox, three games against the ALCS contending Cleveland Indians, and the underrated-ly strong Blue Jays. While the A's get their new roster on its feet, it's gonna be a rough April.

The A's will play four games in Japan. Two of them are exhibitions, which will be started by Dana Eveland and Justin Duchscherer, against the Yomiuri Giants and the Hanshin Tigers respectively. Unfortunately it will be a duel of my favorite MLB team vs. my favorite NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) in the second game, but I think this will be the one time in my life I'll have to choose sides (Go A's!) After those, the A's will face off against the Red Sox for the first two games of the regular season in Tokyo. Joe Blanton will take on Daisuke Matsuzaka in the first, and Rich Harden will face Tim Wakefield in the second. Josh Beckett is injured, and Curt Schilling will be out a good while, so it'll be interesting to see how these matchups shake up.

The A's are on their planes as I write this I believe, so you can keep up on the action at http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/mlb/events/opening_series/y2008/index.jsp and I'll try to keep tabs on what's going on.

Special Bonus Section: Bonds and the Union?

There's something fishy afoot. A quick googling of "Bonds Players Union" will bring up a thousand articles similar to http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-union-bonds&prov=ap&type=lgns which says that Donald Fehr and the rest of the player's union will investigate the lack of offers to Bonds. Perhaps there's something fishy going on with the owners not wanting to sign Bonds. But that's not what I found confusing.

What strikes me is this: Bonds isn't in the players' union, or rather that he wouldn't agree to their licensing agreement. Even his Wikipedia page can tell you that he withdrew from the union's licensing in order to try to obtain more lucrative licensing deals. Video games, card games, and other such fantasies over the last few years have been forced to create placeholder images of Bonds because the Players Union doesn't have the right to use his image or name.

So why is the Players' Union suddenly sticking up for Bonds, who publicly rejected them? Are they trying to woo him back into their midst? Are they hoping to make a statement to the MLB that they can't treat players with a conspiracy and hope to get away with it? Or am I just a huge idiot and missed Bonds coming crawling back to the union?

Spring Training Update

Somewhere amidst the red tags and inflated stats that come with Spring Training, some semblance of a team can be found. This challenge is even more so apparent this year for the only green team left in the league. Bob Geren and Billy Beane have to tackle a few big issues.

1) With Lackey gone, are we contenders? John Lackey is out until mid May with the first real injury of his professional career. My earlier predictions had the Angels way out in front, like they were last year. The A's had a chance (albeit a very slim one) if a lot of things went right for the A's, and none of them assumed the steadfast Lackey would get injured. With his injury taking a month out of him and possibly limiting his effectiveness this year, it very well may change things. The A's will probably start working Future Star Gregg Jeffries Carlos Gonzalez in Center Field in AAA, and Gio Gonzalez as a starter in Sac-Town as well. When the All Star Break comes around, if we are in fact contenders, then the additions of these two plus another bat (Lastings Milledge from the Nationals anyone?) could make for an exciting September.

2) Whats going on in the Outfield? So far the Chris Denorfia experiment hasn't been working out. While guys like Ichiro and Jimmy Rollins can have awful Springs and not worry about their jobs, Denorfia doesn't have that luxury. The A's have been working Ryan Sweeney in Centerfield, and he's looking good. He's providing an adequate bat with defense that isn't a liability, which is what the A's need. Immediately after I finished my draft of this, Linden was told he wouldn't be making the roster despite his .577 Spring Batting Average. His performance screams playability, and I was ready to name him my pick for Left Field over Emil Brown and Denorfia, but Geren must see something that the stats don't show. It looks more like Sweeney will start in Center, Brown will start in Left, Buck in Right, and Denorfia will play backup. Any fifth outfielding will be done by Jack Cust, since it looks like the A's are committed to carrying Mike Sweeney in addition to Dan Johnson.

3) What to do with Eric Chavez? He's out and hurting for the moment. He's not coming to Japan it looks like, despite the fact that he wants to DH for the games out there. The A's just don't need another Designated Hitter, so Chavez has to be ready to fight off the more reliable Jack Hannahan, who also has been having a good Spring.

Here's my current pick for the Opening Day Roster:
C Kurt Suzuki
1B Daric Barton
2B Mark Ellis
SS Bobby Crosby
3B Jack Hannahan
RF Travis Buck
CF Ryan Sweeney
LF Emil Brown
DH Jack Cust
BN Mike Sweeney
BN Dan Johnson
BN Donnie Murphy
BN Rob Bowen
SP Joe Blanton
SP Rich Harden
SP Justin Duchscherer
SP Chad Gaudin
SP Dana Eveland
CL Huston Street
SU Alan Embree
LR Lenny DiNardo
RP Santiago Casilla
RP Andrew Brown
RP Keith Foulke
RP Dan Meyer

Eric Chavez and Kiko Calero won't be on due to injury issues, but will take the places of Johnson and Meyer when their time comes. Chad Gaudin won't have to be used until April 15th, and should be healthy enough to pitch when they need him.

Nate Schierholtz's Clear Qualifications may not be Enough

According to this Nate Schierholtz is unsure of his chances for making the Giants' roster. The Giants are ready to let Dave Roberts take the majority of the playing time, and Schierholtz has to fight for a backup position against Fred Lewis and Rajai Davis. This whole debacle seems very silly to me.

All people have talked about is how the Giants need another power hitter. Rowand was a good signing, but right now the Giants are expected to bat him cleanup, and have Randy Winn/Ray Durham work around him. The Giants at the moment have three of the same guy in the outfield though. Dave Roberts is the old version, and Raj/Lewis are the 27 year old version. They've got a lot of speed but not much power (Lewis is better than Davis in this category at least.) They have all these speedsters who can get on base and steal second, but they need more RBI guys to hit them in.

This is where Schierholtz comes in. At 24, Baseball Prospectus still predicts he would rack up fifteen home runs with less than 600 plate appearances, with having the potential for twenty. This may not seem like a lot, but Pacific Bell Park is very pitcher friendly, and Winn is only predicted to get ten himself. With Schierholtz batting fifth and playing left, the Giants have a much better chance of hitting Roberts, Vizquel, and such home.

If there's any defense for the Giants action, it's that Schierholtz needs more work fixing his atrocious BB/K rate. He has potential to strike out nearly 100 times in a season with only 35 or so walks. This could definitely use work, but the Giants need his power. Outside of Angel Villanova, who was drafted last year and is still at least a couple years away, Schierholtz is really the only big bat that's coming up in the system. He needs major league experience and to get settled into a role so he can become comfortable in San Francisco.

The Franchise is in Trouble

Francisco Liriano, nicknamed "The Franchise" by Twins fans, is back on the mound after having Tommy John Surgery in 2007. You may remember him from his astounding 2006 campaign, complete with two AL Rookie of the Month honors, an All star appearance, and a 2.16 ERA. He's known for his slider which breaks like the 1929 stock market, plus fastball and plus changeup. He was acquired from the Giants in one of the most one sided trades since the Louisiana Purchase, and Twins fans are hoping he will take over Ace duties from Johan Santana.

Liriano had to undergo surgery to repair an arm lost for the final two months of 2006. This was caused by a throwing motion characterized as "violent"by pitching coach Rich Anderson, putting an obscene amount of strain on the young man's arm. Liriano's slider relied on this General Sherman ruthless throwing motion to generate the heat and break on his slider, and part of his recovery involves pulling some his proverbial punches.

This is bad for Twins fans in the short term. Liriano is having his slider limited by his coaching staff and his own fear. Liriano himself doesn't want to become a Mark Prior-esque "What if" case, so he'll be holding back on that motion. By taking the punch out of his best pitch, he'll never become Johan. Johan's main pitch is his Harry Houdini changeup, which comes in around 80 despite looking identical to his high 90s fastball. The changeup doesn't put that strain on his arm, so he doesn't have to worry about his arm falling off like Liriano.

Now, Lirano is still talented. At this point he's still a young guy with three above average pitches as opposed to two above average pitches and one phenomenal pitch. This change will give Liriano more consistency and longevity at the expense of effectiveness. This is in line with the route the Twins have chosen to take. They need Liriano to be there a few years down the road when they make a run for it. The rest of the division will falter in a few years--when the Tigers non-Cabrera hitting core hit old man ages, the Indians big names leave for more profitable waters, and the White Sox sluggers will become old and useless. The Twins will be back, and they need to insure Liriano will be ready when this time comes.

Todd Linden is Ready to Ball...Apparently

So I stumbled across this yesterday: http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080309&content_id=2415184&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=oak

Apparently Todd Linden is frustrated that he's not being prepped for starting duties with his Minor League contract. This whole situation took me off guard. I consider myself a pretty astute fan, and I completely missed his signing. What makes Linden so sure of himself? He was once a first round draft pick with tons of potential. His first year in 2002 was awesome, but he's never quite put it together at the big league level. He's spent most of his days playing second fiddle to Barry Bonds, and perhaps this has given him a false sense of ability. Something like "the only reason I'm not playing is because Barry is in front of me." A valid point, really.

What's stopping him is the fact that the A's outfield is either mostly the same, or as good as him. Travis Buck in Right Field seems better. Buck in his first season posted a 288/377/474 line, whereas Linden has never beaten 273/356/455 line, which he did in 2006 for 61 games. I don't trust him in Centerfield, where in 106 innings in 2007, he posted a poor .946 Fielding percentage, and a Range factor if 1.00 (compared to the 1.55 average.) In Left Field, he's being supplanted by Ryan Sweeney and Emil Brown. Brown is an established Major Leaguer--a mediocre one, but still a veteran. Ryan Sweeney is basically the same guy--a once highly touted prospect (for the White Sox) who has never quite put it together. Sweeney is left handed, and much better against Right Handed Pitchers, better suiting him for the platoon role. Linden is a switch hitter, and not particularly better against either side.

It makes me wonder about the mindset of some Professional sports players. These guys go their whole lives dreaming of the day where they finally make it and prove to the world their talent. I guess he figured "Hey, this is the worst outfield in the league, I gotta make it for sure!" It's somewhat arrogant, but he does have a point. I still don't see him making the spot right out of spring. He's 28 now, and Baseball Prospectus predicts he'll be out of baseball in four years.

What do we do with all the Todd Lindens of the world then? Unfortunately, this is just one of the sad byproducts of the system. Unless one finally has a Jack Cust year where they do piece it together and break out, they're left as 30 somethings in the world labeled has "Never Was's." Let's hope for the sake of goodness in the world that Linden bats .350 this year.

Upside

Spring Training progresses, and the questions begin to pour out. Two players that have been on my mind are Mike Sweeney and Barry BOnds. Both players are old sluggers who were the face of franchises for many years, yet Major League Baseball doesn't know what to do with them. Mike Sweeney is carrying on a monstrous spring training, with a .500 average going into Thursday as a non-roster invitee to the A's. Bonds meanwhile still doesn't have a job. The question here is: who provides better "upside," an aging great or a young up-and-comer?
Younger fellas have the promise of not hitting their full potential--theoretically they could break out and show everyone more talent then ever before. The three guys here are Jack Cust, Dan Johnson, and Daric Barton (aged 29, 29, and 23 respectively.) Jack Cust is a LF/DH type (like Bonds), Barton a 1B, and Johnson a 1B/DH (like Sweeney.) In all likelihood, Cust will serve as the starting DH, Barton at 1st, and Johnson as a pinch-hitting specialist. The A's community looks to these guys for the future, as evidenced by them being on the roster. Younger players look to have higher upside because they haven't hit a proverbial ceiling. If Baseball Prospectus is to be believed, then Cust and Johnson are peaking right about now, and Barton still has a few years before he hits his maximum. Logic here would dictate that, if you're going to take a gamble on someone, it might as well be a young spark plug who may break out. With young players, you get unreliability in the form of an unknown ceiling, which could very well be low as likely as it is high. This is different from Old Player's unreliability, yet lately seems preferable.
Mike Sweeney and Barry Bonds have the upside of regaining their former glory--which is better than anything the youngsters have proven themselves of. Jack Cust is supposedly on a warpath. Reports say he is determined to prove that last year wasn't a fluke, and he's here to stay. If Cust could somehow harness his amazing talent, he could hit 40 home runs. That sounds great, right? If Barry Bonds could regain his former glory he could hit 71, yet he remains out of a job. If Mike Sweeney could get back to 2000, he'd be hitting .330 with 30 Goodbyes, which nowadays is MVP candidate worthy. Why isn't this preferable to young spark plugs?
Most of the time the issues here are money and longevity. Barry doesn't have a job because he probably wants more benefits and money than teams are prepared to offer. The St. Louis Post Dispatch reported that Tony LaRussa wanted Bonds, but it looks like he wants too much money. I imagine there are similar stories around the league. You can get a young'un for the league minimum. Jack Cust was a huge story last yearm partly because he was acquired for next to nothing. Meanwhile, Mike Piazza types may require millions of dollars to rein in. The other issue is longevity. While Sweeney may perform well now, he can't keep it up for seven years--Kid Firestarter can though. If Barton breaks out and has a 30 home run/300+Batting Average season, he's still got 15 some odd years before something bad may happen.
Where does this leave us? I think Mike Sweeney was a good pick up because we didn't have to spend anything to get him (at least in camp.) Barry Bonds actually wants money, but we've got Jack Cust who is probably just as likely to do what Barry would do, and he's cheap. Thus we go with the young'uns, and Barry wonders if his home runs will count in Japan.

Opening Day Predictions: American League

Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics. Josh Beckett vs. Joe Blanton. The Sawx are of course coming off their 2007 World Series Championship, and Beckett off his Cy Young Runner Up year. The A's have recently traded Dan Haren, Nick Swisher, Marco Scutaro, and probably are still in the midst of their rebuilding process. It'd be tough to pick the A's realistically, and I won't. Prediction: Red Sox 4-2.
SUPER BONUS SECTION: MLB 08 The Show was released yesterday, and I played out this matchup, controlling the A's. It was a hard fought battle, with the Sawx winning 5-2 in 12 innings. Ruddy Lugo was forced to go a second inning due to the bullpen getting stretched thin, and gave up three runs in his 2nd inning of work. The A's would have won it on a 9th inning, two out blast by Bobby Crosby, but somehow the molasses-footed Manny Ramirez grabbed it from over the wall.
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees. Roy Halladay vs. Chien-Ming Wang. The Yankees are at an interesting crossroads, with their pitching getting better with a new year, but their position players getting worse with a year (Save Melky and Cano.) The Blue Jays added Yankee-Killer Marco Scutaro in the offseason, but otherwise stood pat (I consider exchanging Troy Glaus for Scott Rolen standing pat.) They'll be better this year, and I'm taking the AL upset here because I'm a sucker for Scutaro, who will pinch hit smash his way to victory. Prediction: Blue Jays 4-3.
Tampa Bay DEVIL Rays (I don't care what they say, they're still the Devil rays to me) at Baltimore Orioles. Scott Kazmir (probably) vs. Jeremy Guthrie. Scott Kazmir had surgery recently, and is probable for Opening Day. If he's out James Shields takes his place, though it won't make a whole lot of difference. The Rays have far and away the best minor league system in baseball, producing such gems as Evan Longoria (Read: this year's Ryan Braun,) James Shields, BJ Upton, and friends. This year is the beginning of some great years for Tampa Bay. This is another in a long series of bad years for Baltimore, as they took a team who won 69 games, and got rid of their ace (Erik Bedard) and one of their primary offensive producers (Miguel Tejada.) Expect a truly awful season, and not much contest here. Prediction: Rays 6-3.
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians. Mark Buehrle vs. CC Sabathia. Sabathia is the reigning Cy Young winner, and his team looks very solid heading into this season. They didn't lose any big pieces from their Pennant Contending team, while young guys like Asdrubal Cabrera will benefit from the year. The White Sox decided they need to keep trying for it while Paul Konerko and Jim Thome still resemble offensively capable producers, so they added Nick Swisher at the expense of what little their farm system had, and traded Jon Garland for Orlando Cabrera. I still don't think the Indians will have much trouble here. Prediction: Indians 4-1.
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers. Gil Meche vs. Justin Verlander. Really, do I have to go into this? The Royals have been historically bad this year, and it will still be a few years before their young guys come into their own. It says something about your offense when your top RBI producer is Emil Brown, who this year is platooning on one of the worst offenses in the league (Sorry A's fans.) The Tigers won the pennant two years ago, had the AL MVP runner up in Magglio Ordonez, and added two ridiculous pieces in Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. This will be a romp. Prediction: Tigers 7-1.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Minnesota Twins.
Quick Aside: Anyone ever thought that the A's may soon be "The Oakland Athletics of Fremont?" How awkward.
John Lackey vs. Scott Baker. The Angels are a very good team who take an even mix with age. The Angels' only concerns are injuries, which won't affect them during Opening Day. The Twins traded their best player in Johan Santana, and didn't acquire any major league ready players, much less any particularly good players. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are still around, but that's about all that remains of the offense. Prediction: Angels 3-1.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners. Kevin Millwood vs. Erik Bedard. My gosh, is Kevin Millwood still acing this team? How embarrassing. Erik Bedard wrote the book on strikeouts, and that should be enough. The popular opinion is that this is great pitching with bad offense against Good offense with awful pitching. I think the Mariners' offense is better than the Rangers' pitching really, so I don't think the Mariners will lose here. Prediction: Mariners 2-1.
There we go! I'm picking the Astros and Blue Jays as my upset victories, but otherwise the Opening Day matchups don't allow for many surprises.

Opening Day Predictions: National League

In an effort to prove that I do listen to comments on the blog, I've been thinking about Opening Day. Today I'll cover the National League:
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies. Shawn Hill vs. Brett Myers. Myers got the nod over Cole Hamels because Charlie Manuel wants Myers to focus on starting. The Phillies are coming off last year's historic comeback fueled by the Mets' equally historic collapse. The Phillies are lead by three MVP candidates (Rollins, Utley, and Howard), while the Nationals are lead by three of the biggest screwballs in the game (Young, Milledge, and Dukes.) The Phillies, while nothing to brag about on the mound, are strictly better than a very poor Nationals' squad. I don't see the Phils having any trouble winning this one. Prediction: Phillies, 6-3.
New York Mets at Florida Marlins. Johan Santana vs. Scott Olsen. Much like the last matchup, except in adding a few pieces, the Marlins traded away 2 of their 3 big game makers. The Marlins offense still has Hanley Ramirez and...Dan Uggla? Ugg indeed. The Mets added a Hall of Fame calibur ace in Johan, and have a strictly better offense. Prediction: 6-2 Mets.
Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates. John Smoltz vs. Tom Gorzelanny. Three NL East matchups, three easy picks. The Pirates are probably the worst team in the National League, if not the MLB. They just don't have strength anywhere (alright, Matt Capps is OK.) The Pirates will struggle to keep up, and the Braves will roll right over their inferior opposition. Prediction: 5-2 Braves.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Bears. Ben Sheets vs. Carlos Zambrano. Finally an interesting matchup. Ben Sheets and Carlos Zambrano are both aces in their own parts, and the offenses are both extremely potent. The Brewers are fueled by Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, while the Cubs are fueled by Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Kosuke Fukudome. Basically we're looking at the same teams as last year, except the Cubs added Fukudome, while the Brewers traded Eric Gagne for Francisco Cordero (Loss) and Jason Kendall for Johnny Estrada (Even.) The Cubs get the edge here, since they come out ahead after last year where they were dead even, plus they have home field advantage. Prediction: Cubs, 3-2.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinatti Reds. Brandon Webb vs. Aaron Harang. Aaron Harang is a hell of a pitcher, but there are only two pitchers I can think of (Santana and Peavy) who can match Webb's dominance. The Diamondbacks are coming off a year where they lead the National League in wins, whereas the Reds need a couple more years for stars like Jay Bruce to mature. The Reds picked up Cordero as a solid Closer, but it's not enough to bridge the gap. Prediction: Diamondbacks: 3-1
Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals. Jeff Francis vs. Adam Wainwright. The Rockies try to defend their National League Pennant this year starting with the rather mediocre Cardinals. The Cardinals will be without ace Chris Carpenter until at least July, so they'll have to rely on their offense to carry them. Unfortunately, despite Albert Pujols, the Colorado offensive core will be too much. Prediction: Rockies, 5-3
Houston Astros at San Diego Padres. Roy Oswalt vs. Jake Peavy. Jake Peavy, possibly the best pitcher in the MLB, is probably the biggest player in this matchup. The Astros offense is powered by Berkman, newly acquired Miguel Tejada, Carlos Lee, and Hunter Pence. The Padres are backed by a somewhat mediocre core of Adrian Gonzalez, Jim Edmonds, and Brian Giles. I'll pick the upset here, and say the Astros take the win in a low scoring match, as Peavy and Oswalt each give up a run, but the Padres bullpen blows it. Prediction: Astros 2-1.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers. Matt Cain vs. Brad Penny. If you're a regular reader of the blog, you should unfortunately know how I feel about this. While I like Matt Cain over Brad Penny with a slight edge, the offense just won't be able to push past a good Penny and a dominant Takashi Saito closing. Prediction: Dodgers 3-1.
That's the National League for Opening Day. I'll cover the American League on Wednesday.

America's Sports Focus

This was supposed to go up yesterday, but Blogger was having some hiccups.
So right now we're in the midst of the Spring Lull (unless there's another name for it.) After the Super Bowl ends, and before March Madness (or for some, until Baseball Season starts) it's hard to cover sports. There's regular season basketball, hockey, and College Basketball on, but none of those sports seem to draw too much interest from the general populace. I think this is due to either the non-stop nature of the game, plus the intricacies involved putting them out of reach of the average citizen.
First basketball. The main reason I think Basketball doesn't draw as many fans is because it lacks game defining moments. If there's a good basketball game, then it's really tightly scored, and it's back and forth until the last five minutes. I think a lot of fans unconsciously tune out the rest of the game because of this, and feel awkward watching a game where nothing seems to matter for most of the game. Not to mention the fact that high-level basketball involves so many intricacies that without having played a lot, it's hard to appreciate what's going on. Due to the nature of the game, its hard for the announcers to explain these intricacies as well. Baseball and Football have stops, in which replays and analysis can be done, and thus enlighten the fan. Replays may very well take up a key point in the game for Basketball coverage.
Hockey is similar. While there are stopping points with goals, there isn't a lot of time to run replays or explain what's going on amidst the play by play. The intricacies go even deeper with Hockey, since most of the country hasn't played real ice hockey...ever. This is different in Canada, because most of the country has played, and many of the stars are home grown. Basketball is more popular with the younger crowd (and in lower income areas) because they feel they can actually make it to the NBA. This isn't so with the NHL, which seems alien to most of the fan world.
America can only keep up with so many sports actively, and Baseball and Football happen to be the ones that are easiest to relate to. Unfortunately, due to the nature of Hockey, Basketball, and Soccer, America doesn't have the focus to keep their mind on such a fast sport, and I think it'll be a long time before they eclipse their counterparts.