The A's opened the season on a tear, as most people know, and have recently digressed back into mediocrity, or worse. The main reason for this is that the A's haven't been scoring runs, and there is unfortunately an obvious reason. The team was aided by some outstanding performances by guys who shouldn't've been counted on as main offensive producers. Let's look at a few of these:
Kurt Suzuki: He peaked right around April 18th, with a line of .339/.409/.390. He was seeing the ball well--not a lot of power, but a great On Base Percentage and all the makings of a solid contact hitter, which is what the A's were hoping for. They tried to move him up to the leadoff spot, but that experiment failed. Since April 18th (the day he was moved up) he's gotten progressively worse, and is now standing at .237/.300/282, a 2007 line that brings up bad memories of 2007 Jason Kendall. The A's envisioned Suzuki as a bottom of the order hitter, more known for his defensive capabilities, and it looks like his psyche may be a bit fragile for top of the order duties while trying to juggle an ever-shifting starting rotation.
Daric Barton: Barton hasn't lost much playing time with the Thomas trade, although many fans are screaming that maybe he should. Since May 5th his OPS has dropped 60 points and his batting average has dropped 30. He's slugging a mere .338, and though he wasn't projected to be a power hitter, it's hard to justify a guy who gives poor defense and so little pop playing 1st base, a position typically reserved for power hitters without much moblity (Paul Konerko/Carlos Pena types.)
Frank Thomas: The main issue here is that with the acquisition of the Big Hurt, the A's committed to him as their DH, leaving Mike Sweeney on the bench. Sweeney was off to a hot start, and he's still OPSing .813, whereas Thomas is still scuffling with a .690 OPS and a very low .339 slugging. Unfortunately with Thomas, you often get slow starts, but the A's are committed to waiting for him to get his swing back. The drop leaves the DH slot much colder, and that hurts since the DH is so key to the young A's team.
Donnie Murphy: He did his best Marco Scutaro impression while filling in around the infield and gaining the fans love with his swell batting, but he's pretty quickly regressed. This was probably due to the injury which landed him on the Disabled List recently, as he's now OPSing a mere .558 as opposed to the .828 he had at the end of April. Gregorio Petit is doing his best to take away that utility slot from Murphy, but the A's are really waiting for Ellis to come back from the DL and start producing.
All of these guys, combined with the continued inuries/demotions of Mark Ellis, Travis Buck and Santiago Casilla have hurt the A's recently. On the plus side, Rich Harden seems healthy, and could draw a lot of attention if he stays healthy. We're getting a better idea of what the team may look like down the road, and may get a better sink/swim feeling as we approach the mid mark. Should these guys continue to drop to average level, and the producers not pick it up, I wouldn't be surprised to see Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, and Huston Street get more trade rumors as the year progresses.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Cliff Lee?!
In doing research for this post, I found this little ditty:
June 27, 2002: Traded by the Montreal Expos with Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, and Lee Stevens to the Cleveland Indians for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew.
Boy, the Indians sure are reaping the benefits of that now (or would be if they hadn't traded Phillips). The A's are hoping for the kind of returns from the Haren deal, but that's a side point. Cliff Lee right now is the hottest pitcher in baseball, with a Hunt for Red October low .067 ERA so far and a 6-0 record in 7 starts. He's the real reason the Indians are doing well--apparently they have a Cy Young winner too, but his stats aren't as good.
What has lead to this sudden rise? Lee was good in 2005, with an 18 win season and a 3.79 ERA. People looked at Lee at that season as a bit of a fluke, and saw him more as a solid innings eater. Let's look at a few things:
1) He's being more aggressive. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down. In 2005 his K/9 was 6.36, and now his K/9 is 7.47, which is quite good. He's also only walked 4 guys in his 50+ IP this year, which is absolutely ridiculous. This, a 2% drop in 3-0 counts, and a 3% jump from his average in Strikeout% (according to baseballreference.com) show he's being more aggressive and going after guys. Such a low walk rate is ridiculous, and uses the Indians defense to his advantage.
2) His bullpen is better. Listen to this little blurb from Baseball Prospectus:
In the middle four months of 2006, nearly half of Lee`s quality starts were blown by the bullpen after the sixth inning (five of 12, in 23 starts overall).
Borowski is fortunately injured, so the Indians instead have the more qualified Rafael Betancourt, and being set up by Rafael Perez and Masa Kobayashi. This bullpen won't blow his leads.
3) He's older, and more seasoned. He's 29, and should probably be peaking at this point quite frankly. The years of bouncing back and forth between success and failure probably have seasoned him a bit, and he may not be as prone to emotional swings. His pitches/Plate Appearance are up 4.02 from his average 3.81, and he still gets out and doesn't walk guys. This to me shows poise.
Only a fool would think Cliff Lee can keep his sub 1.00 ERA, but it's not unreasonable to think he's capable of a very good season--even Cy Young caliber. He's doing all the right things, it's really just a matter now of seeing whether or not batters can catch up to him.
June 27, 2002: Traded by the Montreal Expos with Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, and Lee Stevens to the Cleveland Indians for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew.
Boy, the Indians sure are reaping the benefits of that now (or would be if they hadn't traded Phillips). The A's are hoping for the kind of returns from the Haren deal, but that's a side point. Cliff Lee right now is the hottest pitcher in baseball, with a Hunt for Red October low .067 ERA so far and a 6-0 record in 7 starts. He's the real reason the Indians are doing well--apparently they have a Cy Young winner too, but his stats aren't as good.
What has lead to this sudden rise? Lee was good in 2005, with an 18 win season and a 3.79 ERA. People looked at Lee at that season as a bit of a fluke, and saw him more as a solid innings eater. Let's look at a few things:
1) He's being more aggressive. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down. In 2005 his K/9 was 6.36, and now his K/9 is 7.47, which is quite good. He's also only walked 4 guys in his 50+ IP this year, which is absolutely ridiculous. This, a 2% drop in 3-0 counts, and a 3% jump from his average in Strikeout% (according to baseballreference.com) show he's being more aggressive and going after guys. Such a low walk rate is ridiculous, and uses the Indians defense to his advantage.
2) His bullpen is better. Listen to this little blurb from Baseball Prospectus:
In the middle four months of 2006, nearly half of Lee`s quality starts were blown by the bullpen after the sixth inning (five of 12, in 23 starts overall).
Borowski is fortunately injured, so the Indians instead have the more qualified Rafael Betancourt, and being set up by Rafael Perez and Masa Kobayashi. This bullpen won't blow his leads.
3) He's older, and more seasoned. He's 29, and should probably be peaking at this point quite frankly. The years of bouncing back and forth between success and failure probably have seasoned him a bit, and he may not be as prone to emotional swings. His pitches/Plate Appearance are up 4.02 from his average 3.81, and he still gets out and doesn't walk guys. This to me shows poise.
Only a fool would think Cliff Lee can keep his sub 1.00 ERA, but it's not unreasonable to think he's capable of a very good season--even Cy Young caliber. He's doing all the right things, it's really just a matter now of seeing whether or not batters can catch up to him.
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Travis Buck and his swing
The A's made the interesting announcement today that, in addition to activating Travis Buck from the Disabled List, they have optioned him to AAA Sacramento. The A's want to be sure not only that Buck is completely healthy, but also that he's ready to contribute. The Denorvis debate of last post will rage on for slightly longer, and Buck will be forced to prove himself again. This is an interesting move, but nonetheless a smart one. Buck had options remaining, which I imagine some of the other outfielders may not, so rather than force a choice that doesn't need to be made, the A's can rest easy knowing that Buck can work out those "3 or 4 things wrong with his swing" that plagued him early in the season.
The Outfield will thus remain Cust/Brown/Sweeney, with Denorfia and Davis filling in as needed. Make no mistake--Buck is the starting Right Fielder. He has too much talent and nothing to learn in AAA not to start, but the A's need to be sure he can contribute right now. Especially with the A's recent lack of offense against one of the worst pitching staffs in the league (Sorry, Scott,) Buck could be pulled up very soon. Think of these next few days as glorified rehab starts for Buck, who will be called up as soon as the A's are sure he's once again ready to be the Buck we need him to be.
In the meantime, Kurt Suzuki will stay the leadoff hitter. He remains there because of his above average On Base Percentage and not-terrible-legs. Buck will assume the leadoff spot when he returns, due to his better legs and proven ability (though Suzuki is doing well offensively, his minor-league numbers never suggested he'd be this good, so the jury is still out.) Buck could be back within a couple days, or a few weeks depending on how long it takes to get his swing back, but the message is clear--make it quick Buck, we miss your presence in the field and the plate.
The Outfield will thus remain Cust/Brown/Sweeney, with Denorfia and Davis filling in as needed. Make no mistake--Buck is the starting Right Fielder. He has too much talent and nothing to learn in AAA not to start, but the A's need to be sure he can contribute right now. Especially with the A's recent lack of offense against one of the worst pitching staffs in the league (Sorry, Scott,) Buck could be pulled up very soon. Think of these next few days as glorified rehab starts for Buck, who will be called up as soon as the A's are sure he's once again ready to be the Buck we need him to be.
In the meantime, Kurt Suzuki will stay the leadoff hitter. He remains there because of his above average On Base Percentage and not-terrible-legs. Buck will assume the leadoff spot when he returns, due to his better legs and proven ability (though Suzuki is doing well offensively, his minor-league numbers never suggested he'd be this good, so the jury is still out.) Buck could be back within a couple days, or a few weeks depending on how long it takes to get his swing back, but the message is clear--make it quick Buck, we miss your presence in the field and the plate.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Harden is back
Curse you Bob Geren.
I have been contemplating this entry a while--it wasn't quite ready on Monday, so I pushed it back to Wednesday. Then once I get home from school to finally type it up, Geren had just made his decision to move Chad Gaudin to the bullpen as Harden returns to the rotation from the Disabled List. Regardless, let's examine each pitcher, what they bring to the team, and what Geren was thinking:
First, "Kentucky" Joe Blanton. Blanton is our "Ace" in the sense that he's #1 in the rotation, the most dependable, and probably the guy we'd most like to face up against the opposing team's best pitcher. In 8 Games started this year, Blanton has accumulated a 2-5 record, which is worse than his 3.88 ERA 22:10 K:BB ratio would show, especially considering the livelihood of the A's bats so far. We assumed Blanton would give us constantly 6-7 innings of 3 run ball, and he has done just that. He's given up a total of 27 runs in 8 games, which is about 3.3 runs per game. His most common (mode) Earned runs though is 2, though he has gone as high as 5 in one start. Blanton was probably given little consideration in Harden's arrival, since he is the most polished of the pitchers, the least likely to be injured, and probably the least fair to deprive of a spot amongst the current starting five.
Next we have Greg "1-3 PO" Smith, the phenom call up who originally replaced Harden. Smith currently leads the entire team in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) with 10.6, even over the thus-far perfect Santiago Casilla. Over the course of 39 IP through 6 starts he has a 2-1 record and a 2.54 ERA. He posts a 31:13 K:BB ratio, and amazingly leads the MLB in successful pickoffs with 4 (Side Note: Dallas Braden is up there as well with 2, the A's don't run much, but maybe other teams think twice about it too.) Smith only looks to be getting better, but this is his first big-league stint, although he has looked very polished and one wonders what he would have left to learn in AAA.
After Smith, we have Chad "Southern Man" Gaudin, the now bullpen pitcher. Gaudin was known this year for having a near All-Star caliber first half last year before being slowed and then halted by injuries in the second half. Gaudin missed the Japan Series while recovering from an injury but since coming back he's started 6 games, accumulated a 3-2 record and a 3.75 ERA. He has a 26:10 K:BB ratio, and limited batters to a 1.22~ WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched.) He has averaged 6 innings per start, but been a bit inconsistent, twice giving up 5 ER in a start but once throwing 7 shutout innings and twice throwing one-run-ball. Gaudin was assured of a rotation spot so far, but is injury prone, and his workload could be a concern.
Next we have former All-Star Justin "The Duke" Duchscherer. Duke lobbied hard last year for a starting rotation spot and was given one this year with Haren's departure. Duke has already had one stint on the DL this year, but in his on-time he has a 3-1 GS with decisions in all 4 of his starts, accumulating a 2.45 ERA in the process. He's accumulated a 18:5 K:BB ratio by relying on his 12:6 curveball that reminds some of us of Barry Zito. He's only pitched 22 innings though, only gong 5 in his first three starts but going 7 in his most recent start. He's never given up more than 2 ER in any of those starts, and has proven to be quite good when healthy. If the Duke has no pain, and if it looks like he's not liable to be injured and start pitching into the 6th/7th more often, then Duke has a strong case on his hand.
Finally we have Dana "All Hallow's" Eveland (Sorry, I'm running out of nicknames here.) Eveland won the 5th rotation spot from Lenny DiNardo in Spring, and since then has accumulated a 3-2 ERA in 7 Starts, with a 3.05 ERA. His ERA is mostly tainted by a 6 ER performance on the 30th, from which he rebounded on the 5th with 7 innings of shutout ball. He has a 30:18 KK:B ratio, and averages close to 6 innings per start. He hasn't done anything to be removed from his spot so far, although that may be not enough in this group.
First of all, I don't advocate removing Blanton, because he's too dependable and tenured. I also don't advocate Duke leaving, since we need to see what he can do when he's healthy as a starter, much like Gaudin last year. I don't advocate getting rid of Smith either, because I can't imagine a scenario in which Smith should be removed and Eveland shouldn't. That leaves us with 4 options:
1) Replace Eveland with Harden. The benefit of this is that Eveland would make for an excellent Long Reliever, and spot starter for when any of our trio gets injured or needs to skip a start. He's had bullpen experience, and since he's young, he might be more ready for this type of role. Out of the young duo of Smith/Eveland, Eveland has been subject to Smith's domination, and Smith should be rewarded.
2) Replace Gaudin with Eveland. Gaudin is injury prone, and only moved to being a starter last year. He excelled in the bullpen two years ago, and has shown dominant stuff even when limited to a bullpen array. Gaudin would be less likely to injure his arm if he isn't forced to go to his slider so often to get guys out multiple times.
3) Move Harden to the bullpen. This is radical idea #1, the other of which I will explain soon. If all of the guys in the rotation are pitching well, then perhaps there is no need for the moment. Perhaps Harden should take the long relief role, and wait his turn for someone to get injured or come back down to earth. Doing this would give Harden a little more time to be sure he's fully recovered, and would give us dominance out of the bullpen should someone falter.
4) Establish a mini-rotation. I honestly don't know if this has been done before, but perhaps Harden/Duke/Gaudin could perform a mini-rotation, cycling the three of them between two spots and the long relief role. All three of them are injury prone, and having each of them skip their third start might prove an effective strategy for giving them all starts but keeping them healthy down the road for September play. If someone gets injured, then nobody has to "return" to starting form either, and simply move back into a 5-man rotation.
Geren chose option #2, and Gaudin is displeased. Chad feels that it will take him a step back by being forced into the bullpen, and I'm inclined to agree. If it were me, I would have gone with option #1 (as much as I'm tickled by #4.) Eveland has shown a higher walk rate than the other starters, which has coincided with a rise in his Ground ball %. I think Eveland is ready to be a big-league starter, but so far Beane has been resisting trade offers, and I think Eveland is probably the most suited to return to long-relief without being stunted.
Harden will instead take Gaudin's spot, probably moving Dallas Braden back to AAA. With Keith Foulke coming back soon, I surmise that one of the team's five outfielders will be sent down--probably Chris Denorfia since Rajai Davis is a strictly better Pinch Runner/Defensive Replacement than Chris Denorfia, assuming our Starting Outfield is Cust/R. Sweeney/Brown. Davis will be used pretty often in that role, since M. Sweeney and Thomas will often need to be pinch run for in the late innings, and Cust/Brown as corner outfielders might need a strong Centerfielder to compensate.
I have been contemplating this entry a while--it wasn't quite ready on Monday, so I pushed it back to Wednesday. Then once I get home from school to finally type it up, Geren had just made his decision to move Chad Gaudin to the bullpen as Harden returns to the rotation from the Disabled List. Regardless, let's examine each pitcher, what they bring to the team, and what Geren was thinking:
First, "Kentucky" Joe Blanton. Blanton is our "Ace" in the sense that he's #1 in the rotation, the most dependable, and probably the guy we'd most like to face up against the opposing team's best pitcher. In 8 Games started this year, Blanton has accumulated a 2-5 record, which is worse than his 3.88 ERA 22:10 K:BB ratio would show, especially considering the livelihood of the A's bats so far. We assumed Blanton would give us constantly 6-7 innings of 3 run ball, and he has done just that. He's given up a total of 27 runs in 8 games, which is about 3.3 runs per game. His most common (mode) Earned runs though is 2, though he has gone as high as 5 in one start. Blanton was probably given little consideration in Harden's arrival, since he is the most polished of the pitchers, the least likely to be injured, and probably the least fair to deprive of a spot amongst the current starting five.
Next we have Greg "1-3 PO" Smith, the phenom call up who originally replaced Harden. Smith currently leads the entire team in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) with 10.6, even over the thus-far perfect Santiago Casilla. Over the course of 39 IP through 6 starts he has a 2-1 record and a 2.54 ERA. He posts a 31:13 K:BB ratio, and amazingly leads the MLB in successful pickoffs with 4 (Side Note: Dallas Braden is up there as well with 2, the A's don't run much, but maybe other teams think twice about it too.) Smith only looks to be getting better, but this is his first big-league stint, although he has looked very polished and one wonders what he would have left to learn in AAA.
After Smith, we have Chad "Southern Man" Gaudin, the now bullpen pitcher. Gaudin was known this year for having a near All-Star caliber first half last year before being slowed and then halted by injuries in the second half. Gaudin missed the Japan Series while recovering from an injury but since coming back he's started 6 games, accumulated a 3-2 record and a 3.75 ERA. He has a 26:10 K:BB ratio, and limited batters to a 1.22~ WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched.) He has averaged 6 innings per start, but been a bit inconsistent, twice giving up 5 ER in a start but once throwing 7 shutout innings and twice throwing one-run-ball. Gaudin was assured of a rotation spot so far, but is injury prone, and his workload could be a concern.
Next we have former All-Star Justin "The Duke" Duchscherer. Duke lobbied hard last year for a starting rotation spot and was given one this year with Haren's departure. Duke has already had one stint on the DL this year, but in his on-time he has a 3-1 GS with decisions in all 4 of his starts, accumulating a 2.45 ERA in the process. He's accumulated a 18:5 K:BB ratio by relying on his 12:6 curveball that reminds some of us of Barry Zito. He's only pitched 22 innings though, only gong 5 in his first three starts but going 7 in his most recent start. He's never given up more than 2 ER in any of those starts, and has proven to be quite good when healthy. If the Duke has no pain, and if it looks like he's not liable to be injured and start pitching into the 6th/7th more often, then Duke has a strong case on his hand.
Finally we have Dana "All Hallow's" Eveland (Sorry, I'm running out of nicknames here.) Eveland won the 5th rotation spot from Lenny DiNardo in Spring, and since then has accumulated a 3-2 ERA in 7 Starts, with a 3.05 ERA. His ERA is mostly tainted by a 6 ER performance on the 30th, from which he rebounded on the 5th with 7 innings of shutout ball. He has a 30:18 KK:B ratio, and averages close to 6 innings per start. He hasn't done anything to be removed from his spot so far, although that may be not enough in this group.
First of all, I don't advocate removing Blanton, because he's too dependable and tenured. I also don't advocate Duke leaving, since we need to see what he can do when he's healthy as a starter, much like Gaudin last year. I don't advocate getting rid of Smith either, because I can't imagine a scenario in which Smith should be removed and Eveland shouldn't. That leaves us with 4 options:
1) Replace Eveland with Harden. The benefit of this is that Eveland would make for an excellent Long Reliever, and spot starter for when any of our trio gets injured or needs to skip a start. He's had bullpen experience, and since he's young, he might be more ready for this type of role. Out of the young duo of Smith/Eveland, Eveland has been subject to Smith's domination, and Smith should be rewarded.
2) Replace Gaudin with Eveland. Gaudin is injury prone, and only moved to being a starter last year. He excelled in the bullpen two years ago, and has shown dominant stuff even when limited to a bullpen array. Gaudin would be less likely to injure his arm if he isn't forced to go to his slider so often to get guys out multiple times.
3) Move Harden to the bullpen. This is radical idea #1, the other of which I will explain soon. If all of the guys in the rotation are pitching well, then perhaps there is no need for the moment. Perhaps Harden should take the long relief role, and wait his turn for someone to get injured or come back down to earth. Doing this would give Harden a little more time to be sure he's fully recovered, and would give us dominance out of the bullpen should someone falter.
4) Establish a mini-rotation. I honestly don't know if this has been done before, but perhaps Harden/Duke/Gaudin could perform a mini-rotation, cycling the three of them between two spots and the long relief role. All three of them are injury prone, and having each of them skip their third start might prove an effective strategy for giving them all starts but keeping them healthy down the road for September play. If someone gets injured, then nobody has to "return" to starting form either, and simply move back into a 5-man rotation.
Geren chose option #2, and Gaudin is displeased. Chad feels that it will take him a step back by being forced into the bullpen, and I'm inclined to agree. If it were me, I would have gone with option #1 (as much as I'm tickled by #4.) Eveland has shown a higher walk rate than the other starters, which has coincided with a rise in his Ground ball %. I think Eveland is ready to be a big-league starter, but so far Beane has been resisting trade offers, and I think Eveland is probably the most suited to return to long-relief without being stunted.
Harden will instead take Gaudin's spot, probably moving Dallas Braden back to AAA. With Keith Foulke coming back soon, I surmise that one of the team's five outfielders will be sent down--probably Chris Denorfia since Rajai Davis is a strictly better Pinch Runner/Defensive Replacement than Chris Denorfia, assuming our Starting Outfield is Cust/R. Sweeney/Brown. Davis will be used pretty often in that role, since M. Sweeney and Thomas will often need to be pinch run for in the late innings, and Cust/Brown as corner outfielders might need a strong Centerfielder to compensate.
Monday, May 5, 2008
Contemplating Brown and Cust
The A's have continued their recent success, and remain in 2nd place in the West with 20 wins, 1 behind the League leading Angels and Red Sox. Two players in particular stick out in my mind--Jack Cust and Emil Brown. Even though the pitching has been the real source of the wins, these two position players polarize different arguments for value on the baseball field. Let's outline each player's credentials.
Jack Cust leads the position players in Value Over Replacement Player, a Baseball Prospectus statistic designed to evaluate how much more value a player gives a team than a generic fringe player (Think Todd Walker last year) or a perennial Minor Leaguer (Lou Merloni) would provide. Cust is a walking machine, and has generated an impressive .426 OBP despite a .244 Batting Average. He's hit 4 home runs and recovered from a shaky start to look very impressive, gaining AL Player of the Week honors.
On the downside, Cust is a liability in the field. When the A's acquired Frank Thomas, they made a commitment to using Cust in the field if they want his bat, which will cost them runs in the field. This was no more obvious than in the Angels game wherein he dropped a ball without realizing it, prolonging an inning which lead to 5 runs. He strikes out a lot as well due to his propensity to work deep into counts looking for his pitch/looking to walk, leading to 30 strikeouts to his 25 walks.
Emil Brown leads the team in RBIs with 26, giving him the label of "clutch." The A's brought him in against Left Handed Pitchers, which he has done to the tune of 333/350/436 against them. More interesting though is the 18/26 RBI against RHP. Even though he has an 85:40 plate appearance ratio for at-bats against RHP:LHP, he is still producing RBI's nonetheless against the Right Handed Pitchers. Brown lead the Royals last year in RBIs with 88, and is keeping that label now nonetheless. With Travis Buck out, he has stepped up his game to keep himself as a starter instead of a Pinch Hitter.
On the flip side, he only has four walks on the season, leading to a paltry .296 On Base Percentage. He's already grounded into 4 double plays, more than on pace for his ~14 yearly average. He also is in the top 30 in Baseball in Runners On Base, suggesting he has a high amount of RBI Opportunities (although he ranks behind teammates Mark Ellis and Bobby Crosby,) possibly meaning his high RBI count is merely a product of circumstance.
The question this brings up is, who gets the short end when Buck comes back? Assuming Travis Buck (with his plus defense and 5 tool ability) warrants a starting position when healthy, one of these men will have his time reduced and become mostly a pinch hitter. The answer I believe is in the platoon. The A's will probably carry both of them, letting Chris Denorfia or Rajai Davis (the winner of which battle I'll refer to as Denorvis) get sent down when Buck comes back. This will lead to Denorvis starting in Center, Buck in Right, Cust/Brown platooning in Left, and Sweeney being the super outfielder, filling in for Denorvis and Buck as necessary. Barton/Thomas/M. Sweeney will keep up their little dance, as will Crosby/Ellis/Hannahan/Murphy, and Suzuki/Bowen. That leaves 11 pitchers, 5 of which are starters (Blanton/Smith/Duke/Gaudin/Eveland) and 6 of which are relievers (Street/Embree/Foulke/Casilla/Brown/Devine.)
Next on Wednesday: What to do with Rich Harden when he's healthy, considering the strength of the pitching right now.
Jack Cust leads the position players in Value Over Replacement Player, a Baseball Prospectus statistic designed to evaluate how much more value a player gives a team than a generic fringe player (Think Todd Walker last year) or a perennial Minor Leaguer (Lou Merloni) would provide. Cust is a walking machine, and has generated an impressive .426 OBP despite a .244 Batting Average. He's hit 4 home runs and recovered from a shaky start to look very impressive, gaining AL Player of the Week honors.
On the downside, Cust is a liability in the field. When the A's acquired Frank Thomas, they made a commitment to using Cust in the field if they want his bat, which will cost them runs in the field. This was no more obvious than in the Angels game wherein he dropped a ball without realizing it, prolonging an inning which lead to 5 runs. He strikes out a lot as well due to his propensity to work deep into counts looking for his pitch/looking to walk, leading to 30 strikeouts to his 25 walks.
Emil Brown leads the team in RBIs with 26, giving him the label of "clutch." The A's brought him in against Left Handed Pitchers, which he has done to the tune of 333/350/436 against them. More interesting though is the 18/26 RBI against RHP. Even though he has an 85:40 plate appearance ratio for at-bats against RHP:LHP, he is still producing RBI's nonetheless against the Right Handed Pitchers. Brown lead the Royals last year in RBIs with 88, and is keeping that label now nonetheless. With Travis Buck out, he has stepped up his game to keep himself as a starter instead of a Pinch Hitter.
On the flip side, he only has four walks on the season, leading to a paltry .296 On Base Percentage. He's already grounded into 4 double plays, more than on pace for his ~14 yearly average. He also is in the top 30 in Baseball in Runners On Base, suggesting he has a high amount of RBI Opportunities (although he ranks behind teammates Mark Ellis and Bobby Crosby,) possibly meaning his high RBI count is merely a product of circumstance.
The question this brings up is, who gets the short end when Buck comes back? Assuming Travis Buck (with his plus defense and 5 tool ability) warrants a starting position when healthy, one of these men will have his time reduced and become mostly a pinch hitter. The answer I believe is in the platoon. The A's will probably carry both of them, letting Chris Denorfia or Rajai Davis (the winner of which battle I'll refer to as Denorvis) get sent down when Buck comes back. This will lead to Denorvis starting in Center, Buck in Right, Cust/Brown platooning in Left, and Sweeney being the super outfielder, filling in for Denorvis and Buck as necessary. Barton/Thomas/M. Sweeney will keep up their little dance, as will Crosby/Ellis/Hannahan/Murphy, and Suzuki/Bowen. That leaves 11 pitchers, 5 of which are starters (Blanton/Smith/Duke/Gaudin/Eveland) and 6 of which are relievers (Street/Embree/Foulke/Casilla/Brown/Devine.)
Next on Wednesday: What to do with Rich Harden when he's healthy, considering the strength of the pitching right now.
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