At their current pace, the Diamondbacks can do no wrong. Micah Owings (the team's#3 starter) came in to pinch hit today and blasted a 2 run homer to let Randy Johnson off the hook from a poor 1st start. Edgar Gonzalez has been struggling, but thankfully they have #11 pick overall in 2007 Max Scherzer to move into his place, having not given up a run this year in relief. Their dramatic win today moved them into 20-8, already 5 1/2 games in 1st place in a strong NL West, and 2 games in front of anyone else in the MLB.
This team has so much unlimited power I'm expecting them to give in to the Dark Side. Their rotation is anchored by the 6-0 Brandon Webb (Cy Young winner 2 years ago,) followed by American League All Star Game Starter Dan Haren, then Micah Owings who is 4-0 and helps himself with a .416 Batting Average on the month. The back end is comprised of the Big Unit who has the potential to be dominant (though its not likely) and a top 15 pick of last year's draft who has dominating stuff (though Baseball Prospectus sees him more of a closer.)
Speaking of closer, the bullpen remains a key strength. Brandon Lyon has shaken off his rough first outings, and hasn't given up a run since April 6th, accumulating 8 saves in the process. He's set up by Chad Qualls who hasn't given up a run in 14.2 innings this year and Tony Pena. Despite the departure of former closer Jose Valverde, the bullpen is still strong.
The fielding side of the Diamondbacks though is where their longevity will come from. Eric Byrnes at 32 is their eldest player, and he's hardly over the hill. The middle of the order is anchored by Chris Young and Justin Upton, both high-ceiling power hitters (Upton is still only 21 and has the potential to hit 30+ home runs when he reaches his peak.) Finally relieved of the ghost of Tony Clark, Conor Jackson has come alive to the tune of a .341 average, 24 RBI and 23 Runs.
The farm system is so stocked that they could afford to deal 6 good players to the Athletics for Dan Haren and still have enough talent to produce guys like the aforementioned Max Scherzer. Though this system will probably dry up with their recent success, the Diamondbacks aren't a small market team. True, they are in the bottom half of payrolls this year, but their $15 million a year commitment to an ailing Randy Johnson shows that the ownership is willing to give contracts to players who produce for them.
This is a team, honestly, that has no weak links. Even in a tough division, I get more excited every time I watch them. They're young, they're talented, and they have unique personalities that keep the team fun to watch. Out of all the teams that could possibly dominate for years to come, I'm not too upset by the prospect of the Snakes.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Monday, April 28, 2008
Bullpen Barry
The Giants made the decision recently to send Barry Zito to the bullpen, in a long relief role. Pat Misch will take his next start, leaving the Giants with four starters with Correia hitting the Disabled List. The Giants can wait until May 10th to decide whether or not they want to put Barry Zito in that slot, so there may be hope for him.
The Giants decided to make this switch in light of Zito's absolutely atrocious start. He is one of only three pitchers to accumulate six losses in the month of April, racking up a 7.53 ERA in the process. Zito, and a 15:11 BB:K ratio. Zito says he knows something is wrong, but claims he just has to pitch through it. He is incessantly booed at Giants games for failing to deliver on his $125 million contract, which at the time was the largest contract for a pitcher (outdone by Johan Santana's recent Mets contract.)
What does this mean for Zito? This is the first time in his career he's going to miss a start. He's never had to go on the Disabled List, and he's never pitched bad enough to warrant being removed from the rotation. Zito has caught some tough breaks to be fair including poor defensive play, but perhaps the problem lies deeper.
Zito's curveball has often been rated as the best in Baseball. When he's on, he flabbergasts hitters in ways that leave them shaking their head speechless as to what they can do against it. But his heyday seems to have come and gone. Zito has become too reliant on the big break, trying to lure batters to chase pitches out of the zone, causing a high walk rate. This has been constant over the years though for Barry.
Perhaps the problem lies in his personality. Zito is known for being eclectic and easy-going, and perhaps his routine over the last several years has simply been that he can pitch through it and things will turn out relatively alright. Oakland was always behind him all the time because of his presence in the Big Three (Hudson/Mulder/Zito.) Even when he was poor, Oakland was behind him. This isn't the case for San Francisco. With the loss of Bonds and the sudden realization that the Giants are a very sub-par team, they want results out of their $125 million dollar man. They boo Zito when he is introduced for his poor performance, and Zito is only continuing their hatred with his performance. He can't keep up his easy-going performance when he plays so poorly and the Giants fans demand Zito blood. Giants fans need a martyr to pin their poor play on, and Zito is begging for it with his high contract and antipathy towards inevitability.
I think this will be good for Zito. He needs to rethink his process--some clutch performances out of the pen would reaffirm him to the fans, and a break from schedule might give him more time to iron out the kinks in his delivery that have developed over the years. He hasn't had to fight for a position for a good amount of time, and perhaps this sudden change will light a fire under him and get him to pitch like the Zito of old. He needs to re-learn that he doesn't need to miss bats to be effective. His 30% Groundball/Flyball rate is too low for an offspeed pitcher of his caliber (and about 10% lower than his average), and can be improved upon to produce more outs.
Zito is obviously overpaid for an innings-eating starter with a ~4.00 ERA (which is what was expected statistically,) but his environment is getting to him. He said on the record last year that he was putting too much pressure on himself as the team's ace, and even did well in his only relief appearance last year. With the loss of Bonds and Giants fans looking for the other Barry to carry the team, Zito is simply digging his grave deeper and deeper with every start. He'll come around, but he'll have to do it in the bullpen, since it's clear that this routine is taking him nowhere, and the Giants are going down with him.
The Giants decided to make this switch in light of Zito's absolutely atrocious start. He is one of only three pitchers to accumulate six losses in the month of April, racking up a 7.53 ERA in the process. Zito, and a 15:11 BB:K ratio. Zito says he knows something is wrong, but claims he just has to pitch through it. He is incessantly booed at Giants games for failing to deliver on his $125 million contract, which at the time was the largest contract for a pitcher (outdone by Johan Santana's recent Mets contract.)
What does this mean for Zito? This is the first time in his career he's going to miss a start. He's never had to go on the Disabled List, and he's never pitched bad enough to warrant being removed from the rotation. Zito has caught some tough breaks to be fair including poor defensive play, but perhaps the problem lies deeper.
Zito's curveball has often been rated as the best in Baseball. When he's on, he flabbergasts hitters in ways that leave them shaking their head speechless as to what they can do against it. But his heyday seems to have come and gone. Zito has become too reliant on the big break, trying to lure batters to chase pitches out of the zone, causing a high walk rate. This has been constant over the years though for Barry.
Perhaps the problem lies in his personality. Zito is known for being eclectic and easy-going, and perhaps his routine over the last several years has simply been that he can pitch through it and things will turn out relatively alright. Oakland was always behind him all the time because of his presence in the Big Three (Hudson/Mulder/Zito.) Even when he was poor, Oakland was behind him. This isn't the case for San Francisco. With the loss of Bonds and the sudden realization that the Giants are a very sub-par team, they want results out of their $125 million dollar man. They boo Zito when he is introduced for his poor performance, and Zito is only continuing their hatred with his performance. He can't keep up his easy-going performance when he plays so poorly and the Giants fans demand Zito blood. Giants fans need a martyr to pin their poor play on, and Zito is begging for it with his high contract and antipathy towards inevitability.
I think this will be good for Zito. He needs to rethink his process--some clutch performances out of the pen would reaffirm him to the fans, and a break from schedule might give him more time to iron out the kinks in his delivery that have developed over the years. He hasn't had to fight for a position for a good amount of time, and perhaps this sudden change will light a fire under him and get him to pitch like the Zito of old. He needs to re-learn that he doesn't need to miss bats to be effective. His 30% Groundball/Flyball rate is too low for an offspeed pitcher of his caliber (and about 10% lower than his average), and can be improved upon to produce more outs.
Zito is obviously overpaid for an innings-eating starter with a ~4.00 ERA (which is what was expected statistically,) but his environment is getting to him. He said on the record last year that he was putting too much pressure on himself as the team's ace, and even did well in his only relief appearance last year. With the loss of Bonds and Giants fans looking for the other Barry to carry the team, Zito is simply digging his grave deeper and deeper with every start. He'll come around, but he'll have to do it in the bullpen, since it's clear that this routine is taking him nowhere, and the Giants are going down with him.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
The A's revolving door lets in two more
"Are we trying to develop a young team? Yeah, but we are not running an instructional league. We are running a professional sports franchise." -- Billy Beane.
This is exactly the kind of thing that Beane needed to say to put his fans at ease. A's fans were surprised today by the decision to bring back Frank Thomas, who was released by the Toronto Blue Jays. It was a matter of time, really, to see where Frank ended up. Even though he probably won't be able to produce as he used to, Toronto's outright release of him forces them to pay out the majority of his contract, while the A's only have to pay him a Major League minimum of $350,000.
Thomas, who is a big fan favorite, said he never wanted to leave Oakland but the money after 2006 wasn't right. Now that money isn't an issue, Thomas' first choice was to come back to Oakland, and here he lands. This may seem a bit puzzling to Baseball observers, since the A's are already stocked at the DH position with Jack Cust and Mike Sweeney. Daric Barton has taken over full time duties as 1st Baseman, and Geren said he has named Thomas the full-time DH. In all likelihood, this will push Mike Sweeney to the role of Pinch-Hit Specialist, and backup 1st Baseman/DH. In other words, he is what Dan Johnson has been to the A's for the last few years. The other option is to release Sweeney, much like the A's did with Todd Walker last year. This isn't a terrible option, but I don't foresee the A's doing it unless Sweeney expresses anger at having his playing time cut.
Thomas is off to a slow start, but he always has been a slow starter. His first few games were monstrous, but since then he has hit for a low average. On the plus side, he has been hitting home runs and drawing walks, which is what he usually does. The decision by the Blue Jays to release him was rather silly, and Beane capitalized on it. Baseball Prospectus, going into this year, predicted 20 home runs for Thomas while only allowing 425 At-Bats for him predicting injury. That translates to 29-30 home runs if he can stay healthy all year and get 625 At Bats. For the power-starved A's, Thomas' big bat is welcome.
The A's also claimed Rajai Davis off waivers from the Giants, who released him due to a surplus of Outfielders. They seem to have more confidence in Fred Lewis, who has slightly more Pop. Rajai Davis is a true Centerfielder, which is what the A's have been starved for since the offseason. He has incredible speed, and has the capability to get over 40 steals in a season, which he did twice in the minors. He will probably play Center and bat leadoff for the A's as long as Buck is on the disabled list. His OBP average over 3 years around the minors is around 340, which is somewhat low, but I'm sure the A's will work with him to draw more walks than he had been with the Pirates and the Giants, which should raise his OBP.
If everyone were healthy, this changes our ideal 25 man roster, which now would probably look something like this:
C Kurt Suzuki
1B Daric Barton
2B Mark Ellis
SS Bobby Crosby
3B Eric Chavez
RF Travis Buck
CF Rajai Davis
LF Jack Cust
DH Frank Thomas
BN Mike Sweeney
BN Donnie Murphy
BN Jack Hannahan
BN Emil Brown
BN Rob Bowen
SP Joe Blanton
SP Rich Harden
SP Justin Duchscherer
SP Chad Gaudin
SP Dana Eveland
CL Huston Street
SU Keith Foulke
SU Alan Embree
LR Lenny DiNardo
RP Santiago Casilla
RP Andrew Brown
Absent from this list are Chris Denorfia, Ryan Sweeney, and Dan Johnson. Denorfia I imagine will get reassigned to AAA when Buck comes back due to his poor range in the Outfield so far and marginal bat. Johnson was waived by the A's last week and picked up by the Devil Rays. I like the Raj over Sweeney due to his real ability to play center, and Sweeney being marginal so far at the plate. Those two could switch depending on their respective performances over the next few weeks.
We'll have to see how this develops, but it should make the A's better at the plate to back up their league-leading Team ERA of 3.24. Beane has seen his team is outperforming expectations, and these are two moves that cost the A's virtually nothing. This doesn't instantly make the A's the best team in the AL West, but it does address two big concerns: Centerfield, and the lack of power.
This is exactly the kind of thing that Beane needed to say to put his fans at ease. A's fans were surprised today by the decision to bring back Frank Thomas, who was released by the Toronto Blue Jays. It was a matter of time, really, to see where Frank ended up. Even though he probably won't be able to produce as he used to, Toronto's outright release of him forces them to pay out the majority of his contract, while the A's only have to pay him a Major League minimum of $350,000.
Thomas, who is a big fan favorite, said he never wanted to leave Oakland but the money after 2006 wasn't right. Now that money isn't an issue, Thomas' first choice was to come back to Oakland, and here he lands. This may seem a bit puzzling to Baseball observers, since the A's are already stocked at the DH position with Jack Cust and Mike Sweeney. Daric Barton has taken over full time duties as 1st Baseman, and Geren said he has named Thomas the full-time DH. In all likelihood, this will push Mike Sweeney to the role of Pinch-Hit Specialist, and backup 1st Baseman/DH. In other words, he is what Dan Johnson has been to the A's for the last few years. The other option is to release Sweeney, much like the A's did with Todd Walker last year. This isn't a terrible option, but I don't foresee the A's doing it unless Sweeney expresses anger at having his playing time cut.
Thomas is off to a slow start, but he always has been a slow starter. His first few games were monstrous, but since then he has hit for a low average. On the plus side, he has been hitting home runs and drawing walks, which is what he usually does. The decision by the Blue Jays to release him was rather silly, and Beane capitalized on it. Baseball Prospectus, going into this year, predicted 20 home runs for Thomas while only allowing 425 At-Bats for him predicting injury. That translates to 29-30 home runs if he can stay healthy all year and get 625 At Bats. For the power-starved A's, Thomas' big bat is welcome.
The A's also claimed Rajai Davis off waivers from the Giants, who released him due to a surplus of Outfielders. They seem to have more confidence in Fred Lewis, who has slightly more Pop. Rajai Davis is a true Centerfielder, which is what the A's have been starved for since the offseason. He has incredible speed, and has the capability to get over 40 steals in a season, which he did twice in the minors. He will probably play Center and bat leadoff for the A's as long as Buck is on the disabled list. His OBP average over 3 years around the minors is around 340, which is somewhat low, but I'm sure the A's will work with him to draw more walks than he had been with the Pirates and the Giants, which should raise his OBP.
If everyone were healthy, this changes our ideal 25 man roster, which now would probably look something like this:
C Kurt Suzuki
1B Daric Barton
2B Mark Ellis
SS Bobby Crosby
3B Eric Chavez
RF Travis Buck
CF Rajai Davis
LF Jack Cust
DH Frank Thomas
BN Mike Sweeney
BN Donnie Murphy
BN Jack Hannahan
BN Emil Brown
BN Rob Bowen
SP Joe Blanton
SP Rich Harden
SP Justin Duchscherer
SP Chad Gaudin
SP Dana Eveland
CL Huston Street
SU Keith Foulke
SU Alan Embree
LR Lenny DiNardo
RP Santiago Casilla
RP Andrew Brown
Absent from this list are Chris Denorfia, Ryan Sweeney, and Dan Johnson. Denorfia I imagine will get reassigned to AAA when Buck comes back due to his poor range in the Outfield so far and marginal bat. Johnson was waived by the A's last week and picked up by the Devil Rays. I like the Raj over Sweeney due to his real ability to play center, and Sweeney being marginal so far at the plate. Those two could switch depending on their respective performances over the next few weeks.
We'll have to see how this develops, but it should make the A's better at the plate to back up their league-leading Team ERA of 3.24. Beane has seen his team is outperforming expectations, and these are two moves that cost the A's virtually nothing. This doesn't instantly make the A's the best team in the AL West, but it does address two big concerns: Centerfield, and the lack of power.
Monday, April 21, 2008
John Bowker: The Man, the Myth, the Conundrum
In order to fill a power void, the Giants recently brought up breakout AA guy John Bowker to serve as a pinch hit specialist role. This move was taken with some skepticism, as Nate Schierholtz seemed to be more polished for the Pinch Hitter/5th Outfielder role, but Bowker came nonetheless-and he brought a lot of pop. He's already raked 3 home runs and a triple in 22 at bats, with 9 RBIs. The Giants are thrilled with his early success, and even started him at 1st Base recently in order to harness his hot streak.
"Bye Bye Bowker," as he was called in a recent Giants telecast, wasn't predicted to do much of anything this year. The Baseball Prospectus 2008 almanac, which gives predictions for over 1600 players, barely mentions Bowker. All they wrote was that he found his bat again at AA after struggling in A ball since 2004, but that "He's an inferior version of Schierholtz, and unlikely to build on his progress."
So what do you do with a guy like John Bowker? Ride the lightning until it stops? Conventional wisdom says he can't keep this up forever--he never even played a game in AAA ball. At the same time, the Giants need to cultivate their young players if they want any hope of success down the road.
In my opinion, the Giants should ride the Bowker Train as long as it keeps going. Sure, Bowker will cool down eventually; pitchers will figure him out and he'll stop getting good wood on the ball. At that point, I think the Giants will probably make a switch between him and Schierholtz. Schierholtz will hopefully have learned some better plate discipline down in AAA, and Bowker can refine himself a little more. I just can't imagine he's a finished product at this point since we have a small sample size of him being good. If he doesn't drop hard though, and merely levels off to being league average, then start him in the outfield. This team needs pop, and he's young.
"Bye Bye Bowker," as he was called in a recent Giants telecast, wasn't predicted to do much of anything this year. The Baseball Prospectus 2008 almanac, which gives predictions for over 1600 players, barely mentions Bowker. All they wrote was that he found his bat again at AA after struggling in A ball since 2004, but that "He's an inferior version of Schierholtz, and unlikely to build on his progress."
So what do you do with a guy like John Bowker? Ride the lightning until it stops? Conventional wisdom says he can't keep this up forever--he never even played a game in AAA ball. At the same time, the Giants need to cultivate their young players if they want any hope of success down the road.
In my opinion, the Giants should ride the Bowker Train as long as it keeps going. Sure, Bowker will cool down eventually; pitchers will figure him out and he'll stop getting good wood on the ball. At that point, I think the Giants will probably make a switch between him and Schierholtz. Schierholtz will hopefully have learned some better plate discipline down in AAA, and Bowker can refine himself a little more. I just can't imagine he's a finished product at this point since we have a small sample size of him being good. If he doesn't drop hard though, and merely levels off to being league average, then start him in the outfield. This team needs pop, and he's young.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Stopping at 250 is apparently an act of concern
Earlier this week in a Japanese High School game, a young pitcher was getting walloped to the tune of 66 runs in less than two full innings (Source.) The Coach yanked his pitcher after 250 pitches because he may have gotten to 500, and you know, you gotta show concern for the kid.
This is another part of the Japanese mentality. This poor kid gave up 26 runs in the 1st inning, and was still let to pitch the 2nd inning. A lot of times when young players are growing up, they need to be taught fighting spirit. Kids will be walloped on until they can take no more, because they need to face the pressure. When Baseball was introduced to Japan, this sort of exercise took the form of the legendary 1000 fungo drill and similar drills.
The 1000 Fungo Drill was where a player would take the field, and the coach would hit groundballs or flyballs at them just out of their reach until they collapsed in pain from diving so much. In another similar exercise, pitchers would be made to hang from trees by their arms until they basically fell off (after they finished pitching practice.) The idea here was that they could learn lessons about how to play the game. They would be taught to play through the pain and trust their coach.
This is the biggest difference between Japanese and American baseball. I hate using the "Zen" cliche when talking about Japanese baseball, but this sort of incident proves that some of the old boys still have that mentality. American baseball coaches would be labeled as sadistic and cruel for doing this--anything over 100 pitches at that age could quite feasibly break a kid's arm.
It's sad, but sometimes this is how things go. If you ever wonder why Daisuke Matsuzaka can undertake such high pitch counts, and endure high pressure situations with such poise, its because of the environments. Although he was never made to throw 250 pitches in two innings like this poor sap, he was subjected to the same environment.
This is another part of the Japanese mentality. This poor kid gave up 26 runs in the 1st inning, and was still let to pitch the 2nd inning. A lot of times when young players are growing up, they need to be taught fighting spirit. Kids will be walloped on until they can take no more, because they need to face the pressure. When Baseball was introduced to Japan, this sort of exercise took the form of the legendary 1000 fungo drill and similar drills.
The 1000 Fungo Drill was where a player would take the field, and the coach would hit groundballs or flyballs at them just out of their reach until they collapsed in pain from diving so much. In another similar exercise, pitchers would be made to hang from trees by their arms until they basically fell off (after they finished pitching practice.) The idea here was that they could learn lessons about how to play the game. They would be taught to play through the pain and trust their coach.
This is the biggest difference between Japanese and American baseball. I hate using the "Zen" cliche when talking about Japanese baseball, but this sort of incident proves that some of the old boys still have that mentality. American baseball coaches would be labeled as sadistic and cruel for doing this--anything over 100 pitches at that age could quite feasibly break a kid's arm.
It's sad, but sometimes this is how things go. If you ever wonder why Daisuke Matsuzaka can undertake such high pitch counts, and endure high pressure situations with such poise, its because of the environments. Although he was never made to throw 250 pitches in two innings like this poor sap, he was subjected to the same environment.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
The Duties of the Manager
The Manager is an interesting position to contemplate. At the surface, the Manager's duties are to decide the starting lineup including pitcher, handle in-game decisions such as players substitutions and calls to the bullpen, and coordinate in-game plays like the sacrifice bunt and the Hit and Run. Beyond that, the Manager has to deal with player anomalies and extenuating circumstances. When contemplating a Manager's skill, both of these elements have to be analyzed.
Many statistical analysts are under the opinion that one's value as a Manager is measured by how few runs you cost your team. Analysts like those at Baseball Prospectus tend to believe that special plays like the Sacrifice Bunt are overused and are almost always used in the wrong situation. By this measure, a good Manager is one who doesn't try to get tricky too often and just lets his players play. This philosophy is often held up by players as well, who believe the "let the players play" style allows players to feel more free and comfortable. Dusty Baker is notoriously bad at this in the statistical sphere, while Ted Williams was quite good.
The intangible aspect to Managing is the handling of players. Alfonso Soriano wants to bat leadoff, and often times he bats poorly when put out of position. The New York Yankees are constantly being stifled and second guessed by a brutal New York Media. These issues are the kind of thing that Managers have to deal with so their players won't have to. Joe Torre is supposedly very good at this.
The main reason I bring this up is Lou Piniella. Piniella at the moment has to face the aforementioned Soriano question (at least he will when Soriano returns from today's Disabled List stint.) Soriano went 0-8 in the #2 spot after two games and Piniella decided to move him into the Leadoff Spot, where Soriano has always wanted to bat. Soriano has great speed, but a career .326 On Base Percentage leaves something to be desired. Soriano is a perfect candidate for the Cleanup role, really. He has great power, and can leadoff more 2nd innings if the 1-2-3 batters go down. He wants to bat in the leadoff spot in order to try and prove he can get back to his old 40 stolen base form.
Piniella here has to juggle the competing interests here. Soriano is better suited in spots where he can get RBIs, and use his power to hit other runners in. At the same time, Piniella has to consider whether or not Soriano has a real emotional tie to the leadoff spot. If Soriano actually will bat better in the leadoff spot because he believes he can, how much does that warrant batting him in an inferior spot?
I'm curious as to what value General Managers place on the balance of these things. How much can a person rely on the intangibles while at the same time accepting one's poor statistical decisions, or vice versa? How good can a manager be at statistical decisions if his players run rampant and throw temper tantrums all the time?
Many statistical analysts are under the opinion that one's value as a Manager is measured by how few runs you cost your team. Analysts like those at Baseball Prospectus tend to believe that special plays like the Sacrifice Bunt are overused and are almost always used in the wrong situation. By this measure, a good Manager is one who doesn't try to get tricky too often and just lets his players play. This philosophy is often held up by players as well, who believe the "let the players play" style allows players to feel more free and comfortable. Dusty Baker is notoriously bad at this in the statistical sphere, while Ted Williams was quite good.
The intangible aspect to Managing is the handling of players. Alfonso Soriano wants to bat leadoff, and often times he bats poorly when put out of position. The New York Yankees are constantly being stifled and second guessed by a brutal New York Media. These issues are the kind of thing that Managers have to deal with so their players won't have to. Joe Torre is supposedly very good at this.
The main reason I bring this up is Lou Piniella. Piniella at the moment has to face the aforementioned Soriano question (at least he will when Soriano returns from today's Disabled List stint.) Soriano went 0-8 in the #2 spot after two games and Piniella decided to move him into the Leadoff Spot, where Soriano has always wanted to bat. Soriano has great speed, but a career .326 On Base Percentage leaves something to be desired. Soriano is a perfect candidate for the Cleanup role, really. He has great power, and can leadoff more 2nd innings if the 1-2-3 batters go down. He wants to bat in the leadoff spot in order to try and prove he can get back to his old 40 stolen base form.
Piniella here has to juggle the competing interests here. Soriano is better suited in spots where he can get RBIs, and use his power to hit other runners in. At the same time, Piniella has to consider whether or not Soriano has a real emotional tie to the leadoff spot. If Soriano actually will bat better in the leadoff spot because he believes he can, how much does that warrant batting him in an inferior spot?
I'm curious as to what value General Managers place on the balance of these things. How much can a person rely on the intangibles while at the same time accepting one's poor statistical decisions, or vice versa? How good can a manager be at statistical decisions if his players run rampant and throw temper tantrums all the time?
Monday, April 14, 2008
The Harden Dilemma
As the A's have now taken their hot streak to winning 6 of their last 7 games, some A's fans found themselves looking for the proverbial arm pinch to keep them on earth. That came late last week with Rich Harden being put on the Disabled List, making this season feel a little bit more like home.
What do the A's do with Rich Harden? If you don't know, Rich Harden is the #2 starter for the A's. He's gifted with four great pitches: A century fastball, plus changeup, slider, and a splitter that is so erratic at the end it's basically unpredictable. Harden's downfall is that he's very easily injured due to his moderate frame and overexpense in his throwing motion. He's got the stuff to be amazing, but he just hasn't proven any longevity. The debate I'd like to explore here is whether or not to move Harden to the bullpen.
On one hand you have Rich Harden, the amazing pitcher who historically hasn't been able to handle starting. The obvious solution to a guy who has dominating stuff but can only do it for a few innings is to make them close. Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, and Joe Nathan are all dominating pitchers that can't start. If the A's could even have Harden for a few innings a week as a lights out closer, that's obviously better than having him start 7-8 games a year in between disabled list visits.
On the other hand, you have what might be a lot of wasted talent. Most dominating closers can get by with one or two pitches. If Harden were to move to the bullpen, he would probably use is Fastball and Changeup in order to reduce the strain on his arm, since you don't need to rely on variety to get the same guys out three or four times a game. Harden has the stuff to strike guys out that many times since he has so many tools to go too in pressure situations. If somehow he could stay healthy, then he would be one of the more dominating pitchers in the league, if not Hall of Fame caliber. A top notch starter is more valuable than a top notch reliever, due to the longevity and reliability, not to mention in a loaded bullpen like the A's with a sketchy starting rotation.
The other added dimension is how he may be best marketable. I hate to talk about players in terms of commodities, but if the A's are continuing their youth movement, then Harden could fetch a lot of prospects. As a closer, he'd fetch probably a package similar to the Swisher deal. If he were a 30 start-pitcher, he'd get something better than Haren and Swisher put together. Beane has to think about how best to look to the future.
At what point does Beane stop the gamble? Harden has said he prefers starting to the bullpen, but the bullpen to the disabled list. I think we'd all like to see as much Harden as we can, even if that means two pitch-bullpen Harden. It's sad to see him have to hit the list so much and hear people scoff at him as a never-was, but A's fans like to hold on to that glimmer of hope that somewhere in that fragile frame we have the next Christy Mathewson.
There isn't a right answer to this question unfortunately, but I think that this is the last season Harden has to prove himself as a starter. The rebuilding plan probably won't be in full effect until at least next year, so he's got time to be marketable. Huston Street's contract is up this year, so if the A's can't sign him to a longer contract, they'll need an heir to his throne if they don't like anyone in the bullpen now. Harden could take next offseason to make the switch and still have half a season to be traded to another team if the A's want to make it so. This would be the Kerry Wood route, and we'll see for ourselves how this works with the Cubs. Otherwise he may end up a Mark Prior--ridiculous stuff, never a chance to show it.
What do the A's do with Rich Harden? If you don't know, Rich Harden is the #2 starter for the A's. He's gifted with four great pitches: A century fastball, plus changeup, slider, and a splitter that is so erratic at the end it's basically unpredictable. Harden's downfall is that he's very easily injured due to his moderate frame and overexpense in his throwing motion. He's got the stuff to be amazing, but he just hasn't proven any longevity. The debate I'd like to explore here is whether or not to move Harden to the bullpen.
On one hand you have Rich Harden, the amazing pitcher who historically hasn't been able to handle starting. The obvious solution to a guy who has dominating stuff but can only do it for a few innings is to make them close. Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, and Joe Nathan are all dominating pitchers that can't start. If the A's could even have Harden for a few innings a week as a lights out closer, that's obviously better than having him start 7-8 games a year in between disabled list visits.
On the other hand, you have what might be a lot of wasted talent. Most dominating closers can get by with one or two pitches. If Harden were to move to the bullpen, he would probably use is Fastball and Changeup in order to reduce the strain on his arm, since you don't need to rely on variety to get the same guys out three or four times a game. Harden has the stuff to strike guys out that many times since he has so many tools to go too in pressure situations. If somehow he could stay healthy, then he would be one of the more dominating pitchers in the league, if not Hall of Fame caliber. A top notch starter is more valuable than a top notch reliever, due to the longevity and reliability, not to mention in a loaded bullpen like the A's with a sketchy starting rotation.
The other added dimension is how he may be best marketable. I hate to talk about players in terms of commodities, but if the A's are continuing their youth movement, then Harden could fetch a lot of prospects. As a closer, he'd fetch probably a package similar to the Swisher deal. If he were a 30 start-pitcher, he'd get something better than Haren and Swisher put together. Beane has to think about how best to look to the future.
At what point does Beane stop the gamble? Harden has said he prefers starting to the bullpen, but the bullpen to the disabled list. I think we'd all like to see as much Harden as we can, even if that means two pitch-bullpen Harden. It's sad to see him have to hit the list so much and hear people scoff at him as a never-was, but A's fans like to hold on to that glimmer of hope that somewhere in that fragile frame we have the next Christy Mathewson.
There isn't a right answer to this question unfortunately, but I think that this is the last season Harden has to prove himself as a starter. The rebuilding plan probably won't be in full effect until at least next year, so he's got time to be marketable. Huston Street's contract is up this year, so if the A's can't sign him to a longer contract, they'll need an heir to his throne if they don't like anyone in the bullpen now. Harden could take next offseason to make the switch and still have half a season to be traded to another team if the A's want to make it so. This would be the Kerry Wood route, and we'll see for ourselves how this works with the Cubs. Otherwise he may end up a Mark Prior--ridiculous stuff, never a chance to show it.
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