The Swisher trade for 2010

Welcome to 2008! I apologize for the recent lack of entries--I took a break from the blog while I sorted some things out with school and holiday engagements, but now I'm back! Thank you for your patience.

Anyways, so I originally had planned a Swisher entry, then thought I might be after the fact, but its surprising how many people missed this trade amidst the Patriots going 16-0, BCS Bowl games, and other such nonsense. A good baseball entry is just my cup of tea, so I'll use it to get back in the swing of things before tackling football later this week. So here it is: Nick Swisher of the A's was traded to the Chicago White Sox for Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos, and Ryan Sweeney.

One may ask, "Andy, who the heck are these guys?" They're 3 of the best 4 prospects in the White Sox system. In a perfect world, De Los Santos becomes an ace, with a fastball topping at 98 with late movement and a changeup as his secondary. Gonzalez becomes a 2nd starter, as an above average lefty, and Sweeney develops some more pitch selection, power, or the ability to play Centerfield more reliably. If that happens, we just traded for Jason Schmidt, Joe Blanton, and Luis Gonzalez. But that's a perfect world.

In return we gave away Nick Swisher--arguably the face of the franchise, definitely the best offensive producer on the team (or at least the most reliable,) and to boot a man signed until 2011 without arbitration. This will probably switch Jack Cust to the Outfield until Carlos Gonzalez, Sweeney or Chris Denorfia is ready to take over, unless Beane finally trades Dan Johnson.

I've been on the fence about this for a while, and at this point, I'm leaning against the trade. While De Los Santos and Gonzalez have a lot of potential, they're single A and double A pitchers respectively, and a lot can happen in between now and their time to shine. De Los Santos still needs to perfect his changeup, develop another offspeed pitch, and prove himself against better hitters. Gonzalez needs to develop his fastball a bit more as well, and Sweeney needs to give more energy after a disappointing 2007 minor league season. On the other hand, Swisher is a proven major leaguer, who is only projected to get better. Swisher by the stats is only getting better, and he's only 27. There's no reason to think he'll decline, and is defensive versatility would be a boon to a team which waits to see which of their prospects pan out and which don't.

This isn't an awful trade by any means, but I liked Swisher as a guy who could develop into a great clubhouse leader. He has a lot of personality and charisma, and during the next few years as the new guys come up, Swisher seems like a perfect candidate to help them get adjusted. My early predictions: De Los Santos will reach the Majors in late 2009, but his changeup won't develop as hoped, but he will become a top shelf reliever. Gonzalez will reach the majors late in 2008, and become a solid 2nd starter as hoped, but may be hurt by injury in the following years due to a relatively small frame. Sweeney won't develop his power as hoped, and will turn into a Charles Thomas case. These predictions are based purely on what I've read from those more in the know, and are obviously extremely subject to change.

I agree with a good deal of other writers who believe Blanton will be traded as well, and I can't imagine Street staying with the A's with his high trade value. I had previously thought Street to be untouchable, since he's a young guy who would be a valuable rock to a developing team, but then again so was Swisher. Expect both of them to be traded before the All Star Break, with Beane waiting until he can lock Street to a multi year contract to wave at prospective buyers.