Two big deals were made for the bay area teams this week: Aaron Rowand was signed by the Giants and Dan Haren was traded to the Diamondbacks. I like both of these deals, and I'll outline them separately.
First Aaron Rowand. Aaron Rowand is a gold-glove caliber Center Fielder, who will probably get just over 20 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and a high .280 BA. Aaron Rowand strikes me as a great #5 hitter, who will probably bat cleanup for the Giants pending a later addition. What excites me about this trade in particular is that this is the kind of signing the Giants need: Good glove run producers that don't involve giving up Lincecum or Cain.
If the Giants are going to have any success this year it's going to be "Lincecum and Cain and pray for Rain" (like Spahn and Sain.) It's going to be a team built around starting pitching, backed by Zito, Lowry, and either Sanchez or Correia. If the Giants could produce runs, they have three Starting Pitchers there perfectly capable of over 15 wins, and even Lowry could Joe Blanton his way into a 15 win season. What we need now is another run producer to hit in those 3-4-5 slots. The thought keeps going through my mind of Pat Burrell, as Brian Sabean likes trading for old guys who have strong second halfs, and he wouldn't be terrible.
Now on to Haren. The reports said that Beane would evaluate his plans after Wednesday's health meetings, and apparently they went poorly. Haren was traded to the Diamondbacks for six prospects, one of which is skill-wise an Outfield equivalent of Daric Barton. This is definitely a move for years to come--As one could argue that the A's traded their best player for nothing that's a sure deal. Much like the Tigers/Marlins trade a while ago, the A's basically revamped their whole Minor League system with this trade.
I like this too. It's good for the D-Backs as they obviously got a proven ace (to back up the amazing Brandon Webb) without taking a single piece off their 25 man roster. The A's now have a plan for working towards the new stadium, and anybody who isn't signed for 2011 has a future up in the air. Catfish Stew had a helpful chart to explain who that is, and I think Mark Ellis and Huston Street are the most probable to be traded. Ellis is basically Placido Polanco with less average and slightly more pop, and Street when on is one of the top closers in the league. I anticipate Beane will keep working on Rich Harden and Mark Kotsay until they have a good spurt, then push the trade button while the value is still something. He can't really get anything for the two of them, but if he can get 6 or 7 quality starts without injury from Harden, he could probably convince somebody that Harden is finally the pitcher we've hoped he would be.
So here we have the Giants making a move to make them not awful, and the A's making a move which places them basically out of contention for 2008. With the Angels having the same team as last year + Torri Hunter and Jon Garland but -Orlando Cabrera, and the A's having the same team but Joe Blanton as their ace, the outlook is dim. Wild Card looks dim too since they'll be battling the Yankees and Indians (having lost their spot to the now ridiculous Tigers.) Look for the Giants to place (not too distantly) 5th in the NL west again, but mostly because of the fact that the NL West is going to be the strongest division in the NL. As for the A's...look for them to fight the Mariners for 2nd in the AL west, mostly because the AL West is going to be the weakest division in the AL (outside of the Angels.)
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I'll comment on each of these. I don't know the prospects inside and out but looked at a site which said that four of the prospects were in the top 10 of a fertile farm system.
Given the nature of the Coliseum, it's easier for the A's to take gambles on marginal pitchers. I think Brett Anderson has some decent potential in this regard. Eveland has been likened to a David Wells but will fit as a back-ender for the foreseeable future. I WISH they could get something out of Rich Harden's immense talent and allow him to increase HIS trade value.
The jewel is Gonzalez who is a decent power and speed guy who can play both a corner or center field. From the A's' Standpoint, I like the deal although aside from Gonzalez, it looks to me like the A's settled for quantity in hopes that a couple of the guys become quality.
Webb and Haren at the front-end of the Arizona rotation makes them the favorites to win the NL West and perhaps to go to the World Series. I apologize to both the Rockies and Dodgers who should be solid. I don't know how to gauge LA's acquisition of the Japanese import they just acquired. San Diego looks like a distant fourth and SF looks like an even more distant fifth.
Regarding the Giants' signing of Rowand, I do agree on the signing. It won't have a tremendous impact though. It's tough for righties to hit in SBC and he'll have to hit to the gaps to have success. I don't see much power. Maybe 15-20 HR's tops. He's a great effort player who was really appreciated in Philly though, and from that standpoint, I do like the signing.
The Giants need quantity in terms of position players since the high quality never hit the market. I'd have been a big player for A-Rod if I were them and I wouldn't waste the money on a dog like Andruw Jones. This is a positive step but they need to find more guys. Maybe they should have added BOTH Rowand and Fukudome. Sabean needs to be more pro-active and I presume he has a pretty rigid budget though.
Street has significant trade value when healthy and I do agree with your assessments regarding the Western Divisions.
Rowand's power will diminish slightly moving from Citizen's Bank to At&t, but the park is slightly more geared towards righties than lefties, and I've heard that the park has been playing neutral the last couple years. The point is that I imagine his park adjusted OPS will still be above average, and his glove will do well. A pitching oriented team design is best for the park.
I didn't want to comment about specifics on the prospects, because I feel like I'm parroting everything else I've read. Even though I'm probably not adding anything terribly new to the arguments here, at least what I've come up with is from my own mind. I had no idea who these guys were until the trade, and everything I would've written would've just been regurgitated from some other source. I'm not sure how to tackle that sort of dillemma in real journalism.
I agree also that it would've been nice if they could've added Fukudome too, since they do need another bat still. I think the Giants should look into Lance Berkman--he's coming off a pretty off year, so maybe they can get him at a low price.
I agree with your assesment of the A's chances next year but I'm still optimistic that they will be a fun team to watch. I'm thinking it will be 1999 all over again. It was so exciting to watch that team develop. A true baseball fan can appreciate the enjoyment of watching a plan grow, change and unfold. I think Billy will provide that kind of excitement rather than the endless stumbling and bumbling we've come to expect from some franchises such as Baltimore and Texas. As an added bonus, the lack of pennant contention will mean we should get at least another year of good seats available on game day! OK Billy, bring it on. I have faith in you!
I think you should do a piece on the Rivecats yeah! Which RCats look like they'll be lifted by the A's soon?
-Stephanie
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