Harden is back

Curse you Bob Geren.

I have been contemplating this entry a while--it wasn't quite ready on Monday, so I pushed it back to Wednesday. Then once I get home from school to finally type it up, Geren had just made his decision to move Chad Gaudin to the bullpen as Harden returns to the rotation from the Disabled List. Regardless, let's examine each pitcher, what they bring to the team, and what Geren was thinking:

First, "Kentucky" Joe Blanton. Blanton is our "Ace" in the sense that he's #1 in the rotation, the most dependable, and probably the guy we'd most like to face up against the opposing team's best pitcher. In 8 Games started this year, Blanton has accumulated a 2-5 record, which is worse than his 3.88 ERA 22:10 K:BB ratio would show, especially considering the livelihood of the A's bats so far. We assumed Blanton would give us constantly 6-7 innings of 3 run ball, and he has done just that. He's given up a total of 27 runs in 8 games, which is about 3.3 runs per game. His most common (mode) Earned runs though is 2, though he has gone as high as 5 in one start. Blanton was probably given little consideration in Harden's arrival, since he is the most polished of the pitchers, the least likely to be injured, and probably the least fair to deprive of a spot amongst the current starting five.

Next we have Greg "1-3 PO" Smith, the phenom call up who originally replaced Harden. Smith currently leads the entire team in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) with 10.6, even over the thus-far perfect Santiago Casilla. Over the course of 39 IP through 6 starts he has a 2-1 record and a 2.54 ERA. He posts a 31:13 K:BB ratio, and amazingly leads the MLB in successful pickoffs with 4 (Side Note: Dallas Braden is up there as well with 2, the A's don't run much, but maybe other teams think twice about it too.) Smith only looks to be getting better, but this is his first big-league stint, although he has looked very polished and one wonders what he would have left to learn in AAA.

After Smith, we have Chad "Southern Man" Gaudin, the now bullpen pitcher. Gaudin was known this year for having a near All-Star caliber first half last year before being slowed and then halted by injuries in the second half. Gaudin missed the Japan Series while recovering from an injury but since coming back he's started 6 games, accumulated a 3-2 record and a 3.75 ERA. He has a 26:10 K:BB ratio, and limited batters to a 1.22~ WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched.) He has averaged 6 innings per start, but been a bit inconsistent, twice giving up 5 ER in a start but once throwing 7 shutout innings and twice throwing one-run-ball. Gaudin was assured of a rotation spot so far, but is injury prone, and his workload could be a concern.

Next we have former All-Star Justin "The Duke" Duchscherer. Duke lobbied hard last year for a starting rotation spot and was given one this year with Haren's departure. Duke has already had one stint on the DL this year, but in his on-time he has a 3-1 GS with decisions in all 4 of his starts, accumulating a 2.45 ERA in the process. He's accumulated a 18:5 K:BB ratio by relying on his 12:6 curveball that reminds some of us of Barry Zito. He's only pitched 22 innings though, only gong 5 in his first three starts but going 7 in his most recent start. He's never given up more than 2 ER in any of those starts, and has proven to be quite good when healthy. If the Duke has no pain, and if it looks like he's not liable to be injured and start pitching into the 6th/7th more often, then Duke has a strong case on his hand.

Finally we have Dana "All Hallow's" Eveland (Sorry, I'm running out of nicknames here.) Eveland won the 5th rotation spot from Lenny DiNardo in Spring, and since then has accumulated a 3-2 ERA in 7 Starts, with a 3.05 ERA. His ERA is mostly tainted by a 6 ER performance on the 30th, from which he rebounded on the 5th with 7 innings of shutout ball. He has a 30:18 KK:B ratio, and averages close to 6 innings per start. He hasn't done anything to be removed from his spot so far, although that may be not enough in this group.

First of all, I don't advocate removing Blanton, because he's too dependable and tenured. I also don't advocate Duke leaving, since we need to see what he can do when he's healthy as a starter, much like Gaudin last year. I don't advocate getting rid of Smith either, because I can't imagine a scenario in which Smith should be removed and Eveland shouldn't. That leaves us with 4 options:
1) Replace Eveland with Harden. The benefit of this is that Eveland would make for an excellent Long Reliever, and spot starter for when any of our trio gets injured or needs to skip a start. He's had bullpen experience, and since he's young, he might be more ready for this type of role. Out of the young duo of Smith/Eveland, Eveland has been subject to Smith's domination, and Smith should be rewarded.
2) Replace Gaudin with Eveland. Gaudin is injury prone, and only moved to being a starter last year. He excelled in the bullpen two years ago, and has shown dominant stuff even when limited to a bullpen array. Gaudin would be less likely to injure his arm if he isn't forced to go to his slider so often to get guys out multiple times.
3) Move Harden to the bullpen. This is radical idea #1, the other of which I will explain soon. If all of the guys in the rotation are pitching well, then perhaps there is no need for the moment. Perhaps Harden should take the long relief role, and wait his turn for someone to get injured or come back down to earth. Doing this would give Harden a little more time to be sure he's fully recovered, and would give us dominance out of the bullpen should someone falter.
4) Establish a mini-rotation. I honestly don't know if this has been done before, but perhaps Harden/Duke/Gaudin could perform a mini-rotation, cycling the three of them between two spots and the long relief role. All three of them are injury prone, and having each of them skip their third start might prove an effective strategy for giving them all starts but keeping them healthy down the road for September play. If someone gets injured, then nobody has to "return" to starting form either, and simply move back into a 5-man rotation.

Geren chose option #2, and Gaudin is displeased. Chad feels that it will take him a step back by being forced into the bullpen, and I'm inclined to agree. If it were me, I would have gone with option #1 (as much as I'm tickled by #4.) Eveland has shown a higher walk rate than the other starters, which has coincided with a rise in his Ground ball %. I think Eveland is ready to be a big-league starter, but so far Beane has been resisting trade offers, and I think Eveland is probably the most suited to return to long-relief without being stunted.

Harden will instead take Gaudin's spot, probably moving Dallas Braden back to AAA. With Keith Foulke coming back soon, I surmise that one of the team's five outfielders will be sent down--probably Chris Denorfia since Rajai Davis is a strictly better Pinch Runner/Defensive Replacement than Chris Denorfia, assuming our Starting Outfield is Cust/R. Sweeney/Brown. Davis will be used pretty often in that role, since M. Sweeney and Thomas will often need to be pinch run for in the late innings, and Cust/Brown as corner outfielders might need a strong Centerfielder to compensate.