As Spring Training begins and projections start popping up, most A's fans are placing their bets on a losing season. That said, there is hope. These are all major league caliber players, and its conceivable they could take down a much better Angels team, just as anyone could. From what I see, here are the most important elements to this success, in order of importance:
1. Rich Harden has to be healthy. I can not underscore this point enough. A healthy Rich Harden for even three quarters of the season would give the A's a significant enough boost to make them a winning team. With Harden healthy, the rotation becomes Harden/Blanton/Gaudin/Duchscherer/DiNardo. The more games the A's have to dip into Dan Meyer and Dana Eveland to start will be more games lost. I'm almost to the point of saying Harden is necessary to a winning record, but there are other factors, such as...
2. A healthy Eric Chavez and Bobby Crosby. If Chavez returns to 30 slam form and Crosby can at least be the not-awful player we know he could be, it gives the Swisher-less lineup a big boost. Travis Buck-Daric Barton is a fairly good 1-2 punch, but having a healthy Eric Chavez and Crosby batting 3rd/5th around Cust will put a good amount more runs on the board. Ellis can drop down to the 6th position where he really excels.
3. Somebody needs to step up and play Center Field and provide a capable bat. Right now all eyes are looking at Chris Denorfia, who Baseball Prospectus predicts will pull a 266/331/414 line, which would be good if he can stay off the injuries which plagued him last season. Carlos Gonzalez, acquired in the Haren Trade, has a Herculean throwing arm, and could take over the position after the All-Star Break if all goes well and he improves his plate discipline. Buck is solid in Right Field, and I like the platoon of the left handed Ryan Sweeney and the right handed Emil Brown in Left Field. Regardless, that gaping hole in Center Field needs to be filled.
That's what needs to be done in Oakland. On the other hand, things could happen outside of The Town:
1. First and foremost, the Rangers and Mariners need to suck. The Mariners' offense needs to prove as sickly as the A's hope it will be, and the Rangers need to continue throwing Happy Fun Balls to the opposition. If the A's have another solid team to compete against as well as the Angels, they'll split wins too often to take the title. With the strength of the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, and Indians, I don't think there's a realistic chance the West will take the Wild Card.
2. Vladimir Guerrero needs to break down. He was hit by the injury bug last year, and this year he insists on playing Right Field nonetheless. This could lead to more injury, and a big bat loss to the Angels. Without Vlad the Angels have no suitable cleanup hitter, and could have trouble bringing home all their speedsters.
3. The Angels pitching staff needs to deteriorate. Outside of John Lackey, none of the starts have overpowering stuff. Kelvim Escobar will be off to a slow start due to missing the first month, and Francisco Rodriguez always flabbergasts analysts as to how he stays healthy under all his strain. It's conceivable that starters 2-5 could all have 4.5+ ERA, and that would be very good for the A's.
It is possible that the A's could win the AL West title, although it's gonna be tough. Sure, this sort of hoping can be done with any team, but this at least gives us something to look for as the season begins. I'll be keeping a checklist, and we'll see how it affects the standings at the end.
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2 Questions...
1) Did they trade Barry Bonds yet?
2) Who is the cutest guy on the A's that I need to have a crush on this season? - In you opinion.
These are important!
Although Guerrero could be riddled by injuries, there is no conceivable way the Halos' 2-5 starters will have a 4.5 ERA or worse.
The A's won't be that bad. But they won't be good enough. I doubt Harden can stay healthy and I think Street and Blanton will eventually be trade candidates.
Still, the way I'd see it...
LAA 93 69 SEA 90 72 TEX 77 85 OAK 73 89
I think the cutest guy on the A's continues to be Houston Street. His DQ (Dreaminess Quotient) has only gone up in the absense of the elf-like Nick Swisher. We got no rotation. My prediction is that Harden and Gaudin won't even start 30 games between them. I can hear "Hip-flexor strain" in my sleep already. The last time things looked this bad, Gil Heredia was our Ace! On the other hand, I think you're right about the Halo's rotation. Aside from John Lackey (aka. The Devil Incarnate) none of those guys inspire much confidence
1) Barry is unsigned. His agent made the comment that he will go to Japan if nobody signs him, which would be absolutely hilarious.
2) Landon Powell isn't bad, though he'll probably be a Rivercat. Carlos Gonzalez is ok too. But then again, I find stats cute, and productivity to be hot.
3) Kelvim has a career ERA of 4.15, and he'll be out for a month. I can see that blowing up, as it did in 99-00. Garland's career is 4.41. Saunders is 4.71. Weaver is still young and can be figured out. Can't a guy dream?
4) I don't see the Mariners being a 90 win team by any chance. Their offense outside of Ichiro is too iffy (Ibanez, Sexson, Beltre are all guys who I have little faith in.) I'm thinking they'll be more like an 82 win team.
5) Harden finished last season ok, and all reports out of Spring Training are fine. I haven't heard anything about Gaudin.
I know it would be fairly ridiculous to assume all these things are going to happen, and I don't think they will, but I think some of them will. And it is fun to keep these lists beforehand in order to check things off as the season goes by, and then if the A's do win by divine intervention, you can stand up and yell Bingo! at the end.
I don't think Garland is that good and Saunders is hittable so there is some merit to what you say, Greg. Still, when they get Escobar back and if Weaver is healthy, those first three are good. They manage to win in wierd ways. We, Yankee Fans, have a somewhat warped opinion of the Angels because they have taken advantage of everything we do badly as a team. They have owned us. They manufacture and their pen is always awesome. Lackey is the Devil reincarnate by the way.
The M's will be very good with Bedard. I had them at about 82-80 before his arrival. But with Bedard, Felix, and Silva (a ground ball factory), they might not need as much offense.
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