After finishing my last piece on how best to maximize the A's chances of winning, I thought about the Giants. What exactly needs to happen in order for them to have a chance? This thought process was much more involved. I concluded that the reason I'm so down on the Giants is because much more needs to happen for them to succeed:
1. The Giants need a solid 3rd Baseman, 2nd Baseman, and someone in the infield needs to hit for power. The Giants missed out on Pedro Feliz--probably because he got identical offers from San Francisco and Philadelphia, but with the Phillies he gets to share an infield with three MVP candidates. Rumors abound now of a trade for Joe Crede, and I've long supported a trade for Brandon Inge, but statistically they're mostly Feliz clones. Either Rich Aurilia or Kevin Frandsen needs to prove themselves worthy of playing every day, and the same goes for Ray Durham. Furthermore the Giants need a power hitter to go with Rowand and Molina. The best hope for this now is probably Nate Schierholtz, but he doesn't have a position available for him.
UPDATE: I just read that Omar Vizquel will be out to 4-6 weeks, with week 1 of the regular season being the earliest he might come back. This already sets us back, as Frandsen won't be able to get as much 3rd Base practice in during Spring Training, and Vizquel really needs to be a rock to let the rest of the infield develop.
2. The Starting staff needs to be ready to carry the team. The Giants have three potential aces in Matt Cain, Barry Zito, and Tim Lincecum, and these three guys all have to be ready to win at least 15 games, or at least put forth the quality starts to do so. As evidenced by Cain's disastrous Win-Loss record despite being in 10th in ERA in the National League, the Giants won't always produce offensively. In order to give the Giants a winning season, the Giants starters have to give the offense more than enough starts to succeed to compensate for their poor run production.
3. The bullpen needs to be ready for low scoring games, and hold them. The Giants last year were 39-55 in games decided by two runs or less. While this isn't entirely the bullpen's fault, since the offense is basically the same (-Bonds + Rowand) the bullpen has to be ready. The Giants have a nice duo in Brian Wilson/Brad Hennessey, and Bochy needs to utilize them. Bruce Bochy needs to be prepared to bring one of them on in the 7th inning, when the game may get out of conrtol. Hopefully they can push themselves past the allure of the save stat and commit to winning games--which involves utilizing the best reliever whenever its necessary.
Phew, I'm exhausted already. Now we get to the fun part; what needs to happen outside of San Francisco.
1. Takashi Saito needs to remember he's 38, the Dodgers' rookies need to stall another year, and Andruw Jones needs to play as sub-par as last year. At the moment, the Dodgers are poised to have a big year. Saito will probably be great for one more year (and his heir apparent Jonathan Broxton waiting in the wings to support him,) they have a boat load of young impact players (Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, James Loney, etc.) and established stars in Brad Penny, Russell Martin, and Jones. These guys are all strictly better than their Giants' counterparts, and need to stall/breakdown to allow for the Giants to succeed.
2. The Diamondbacks need to collectively Sophomore slump. Outside of Brandon Webb, pretty much every Diamondback is coming off their first huge year. Eric Byrnes stopped streaking, Dan Haren made his first All Star Game, and their young rookies broke out. There is a chance that players experience a phenomenon known as Sophomore Slump. This happens by analyzing tape and realizing players weaknesses. For instance, after Bobby Crosby's Rookie of the Year season, pitchers realized that he chases the low outside slider way too often, so he was subsequently fed an Atkins-Diet worth, and he began declining. Barry Zito tends to rely on his breaking ball to get hitters to chase pitches outside of the strike zone, so batters simply stopped swinging and started taking the walk. He has yet to return to Cy Young form. The Giants need to pray that enough of the Diamondbacks have these weaknesses that they decline.
3. The Rockies need to go back to last year, minus the huge surge at the end. The Rockies Starting staff is quite poor outside of Jeff Francis, and this is exploitable by the extremely hitter-friendly Coors Field. The Rockies will put up inflated offensive numbers due to Coors field and having a very good core in Holliday/Hawpe/Helton/Tulowitzki. The Giants need to hope the Rockies become the Rangers of the NL West -- all offense, no pitching.
4. Oh yeah, the Padres need to stink too. They don't look too threatening outside of the possible Best Pitcher in the League. Hopefully he doesn't serve as the Orel Hershiser for them, and they remain mediocre.
There you have it. If ever I sound depressed about the Giants' hopes for the season, its because thy seem to need a lot more in order to succeed. They need two more teams to tank then the A's, while relying on a lineup with more holes. Nonetheless, it is possible. I think of it like playing Bingo, except the Giants board is 7x7 instead of 5x5. The Giants can get a bingo, but it will require a lot of luck.
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2 comments:
This season will be one of despair for the Jints. It might benefit them to trade one of the pitchers for an impact position player. The whole Bonds thing and the lack of development has dried them out.
The way I see this going (you could stick each of these in a mixing bowl)is as follows:
Arizona: Too much pitching IFFFFF the Big Unit comes back. Good top 3 and youngsters will lead to lots of success.
LA: If Torre blends the youngsters in. If he plays the oldsters, drop them two notches. Broxton, LaRoche, Kemp, Loney and company are good.
Colorado: Not exactly a magic carpet ride. Maybe a harbinger of things to come. Coors isn't reverting post humidor. If it does, they'll resemble the 99-03 Rox with the best defense in the league. They just miss out.
San Diego: Good team who will probably be above .500. They are well built for their home park with Peavy, Young, Maddux, and company.
GIANTS: No shot at anything but a 95-100 loss season. The pitchers will develop but the lack of position players with pizzaz at nearly every position will scuttle them. Lincecum and Cain are the real thing and Lowry needs tweaks though.
When listening to yesterday's A's Giants game, I heard the following quote:
Fosse: I wonder what Bruce Bochy is thinking....Where's Barry Bonds?
(laughter)
I was thinking the same thing. Where is their best position player/League Leader in OBP?
Bochy said he was dissapointed because if there is going to be any gameplan, its pitching and defense. Both of those sucked yesterday. I know this is Spring Training and all, and everyone who pitched after Zito isn't likely to make the active roster, but it's still foreboding.
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