Monday, April 28, 2008

Bullpen Barry

The Giants made the decision recently to send Barry Zito to the bullpen, in a long relief role. Pat Misch will take his next start, leaving the Giants with four starters with Correia hitting the Disabled List. The Giants can wait until May 10th to decide whether or not they want to put Barry Zito in that slot, so there may be hope for him.

The Giants decided to make this switch in light of Zito's absolutely atrocious start. He is one of only three pitchers to accumulate six losses in the month of April, racking up a 7.53 ERA in the process. Zito, and a 15:11 BB:K ratio. Zito says he knows something is wrong, but claims he just has to pitch through it. He is incessantly booed at Giants games for failing to deliver on his $125 million contract, which at the time was the largest contract for a pitcher (outdone by Johan Santana's recent Mets contract.)

What does this mean for Zito? This is the first time in his career he's going to miss a start. He's never had to go on the Disabled List, and he's never pitched bad enough to warrant being removed from the rotation. Zito has caught some tough breaks to be fair including poor defensive play, but perhaps the problem lies deeper.

Zito's curveball has often been rated as the best in Baseball. When he's on, he flabbergasts hitters in ways that leave them shaking their head speechless as to what they can do against it. But his heyday seems to have come and gone. Zito has become too reliant on the big break, trying to lure batters to chase pitches out of the zone, causing a high walk rate. This has been constant over the years though for Barry.

Perhaps the problem lies in his personality. Zito is known for being eclectic and easy-going, and perhaps his routine over the last several years has simply been that he can pitch through it and things will turn out relatively alright. Oakland was always behind him all the time because of his presence in the Big Three (Hudson/Mulder/Zito.) Even when he was poor, Oakland was behind him. This isn't the case for San Francisco. With the loss of Bonds and the sudden realization that the Giants are a very sub-par team, they want results out of their $125 million dollar man. They boo Zito when he is introduced for his poor performance, and Zito is only continuing their hatred with his performance. He can't keep up his easy-going performance when he plays so poorly and the Giants fans demand Zito blood. Giants fans need a martyr to pin their poor play on, and Zito is begging for it with his high contract and antipathy towards inevitability.

I think this will be good for Zito. He needs to rethink his process--some clutch performances out of the pen would reaffirm him to the fans, and a break from schedule might give him more time to iron out the kinks in his delivery that have developed over the years. He hasn't had to fight for a position for a good amount of time, and perhaps this sudden change will light a fire under him and get him to pitch like the Zito of old. He needs to re-learn that he doesn't need to miss bats to be effective. His 30% Groundball/Flyball rate is too low for an offspeed pitcher of his caliber (and about 10% lower than his average), and can be improved upon to produce more outs.

Zito is obviously overpaid for an innings-eating starter with a ~4.00 ERA (which is what was expected statistically,) but his environment is getting to him. He said on the record last year that he was putting too much pressure on himself as the team's ace, and even did well in his only relief appearance last year. With the loss of Bonds and Giants fans looking for the other Barry to carry the team, Zito is simply digging his grave deeper and deeper with every start. He'll come around, but he'll have to do it in the bullpen, since it's clear that this routine is taking him nowhere, and the Giants are going down with him.

4 comments:

Sarah & Scott Greene said...

Great insight. You failed to mention the other two pitchers that this has happened to. One was Dave Stewart in '84 and the other was Mike Maroth in '03. Look on the bright side, Zito. At least it had only been 5 years since Maroth. When it happened to Stewart, it had been 28 years
(1956) since a pitcher went 0-6 in April. He needs to find his mojo...

Andy Patrick said...

Mike Maroth is obviously bad, but Dave Stewart had a number of good years despite his 1984 (He won 20 games in 1987.) Zito will find some of it in the pen, let's just hope it can get him back to the point where he at least doesn't get booed by his hometown fans.

Mark A. Checki said...

A couple of additional things here:

(1) There has been a loss of velocity issue. When he's throwing 83, his curve ball is less effective. This will tie into my second point. I am sure his curve ball has less bite.

(2) Look at the careers of the pitchers who have left Oakland. Hudson went from being a young David Cone to a sinkerballer. Mulder has been rendered useless. Workload has to be an issue with these guys. This is especially true with the A's less than conventional approach to the bullpen. A lot of those years, they had Billy Taylor closing for them. Later on, they had Izzy. Did Art Howe and Ken Macha burn these three guys out? Definitely plausible given the circumstantial evidence.

(3) Giant Fans ought to take a chill pill and vent their frustration on Sabean who has come up too small in these drafts. They have not developed a position player of consequence. They had the team around Bonds. Now that Bonds is no more, there is nothing left than those spare parts. Sure, BZ is an easy target. However he pitched 1 out of every five days so to take all their anger out on him is totally unfair.

Andy Patrick said...

I agree that Zito has been a bit burnt out--at this point in his career he's just a #3 Innings Eater. It's hard to tell Giants fans to hate Sabean though (even though I agree, Sabean is to blame.) First of all because they're regular guys who watch baseball, and don't so much care about inner office workings. Second of all because this has been a team built around the single player mentality--it will take a few years to get back out of it.